(2023-10) Haiti Macro Poverty Outlook

World Bank • 2023

Summary — World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook country brief for Haiti (October 2023). It reports a continued output decline driven by political crisis and gang violence, high but decelerating inflation, and a projected GDP contraction of 2.5 percent in FY23 before a modest rebound.

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Key Findings

The index of economic activity contracted by 2.9 percent in H1 FY23, with all sectors declining and agriculture (over 40 percent of the labor force) falling 5.0 percent, likely raising poverty and food insecurity.
The textile sector, the largest formal private employer, shed more than 20,000 jobs (about one-third of the total) since the start of the fiscal year due to insecurity.
Inflation peaked at 49.3 percent y-o-y in January and eased to 39.7 percent by July, aided by monetary tightening and a 74 percent reduction in monetary financing of the deficit, though food inflation stayed high (46.1 percent average).
Energy subsidy cuts and capital-spending retrenchment supported fiscal consolidation while higher remittances and slowing imports produced a current account surplus.
GDP is projected to contract 2.5 percent in FY23 then rebound 1.3 percent in 2024, with the $3.65-a-day poverty rate remaining at 63.2 percent.

Full Description

This World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook brief for Haiti, from the October 2023 Annual Meetings edition, assesses an economy hampered by protracted political crisis and gang violence that has become the binding constraint to growth. The index of economic activity (ICAE) contracted by 2.9 percent in H1 FY23, with all sectors declining and agriculture, which engages over 40 percent of the labor force, registering the largest fall at 5.0 percent. The textile sector, the largest formal private employer, shed more than 20,000 jobs (about one-third of the total) since the start of the fiscal year. Inflation peaked at 49.3 percent year-on-year in January before easing to 39.7 percent in July, helped by monetary policy tightening and a 74 percent year-on-year reduction in monetary financing of the deficit. Higher remittances (up 8 percent) and slowing imports amid collapsing investment produced a current account surplus, while energy subsidy cuts and capital spending retrenchment narrowed the fiscal deficit. GDP is expected to contract by 2.5 percent in FY23, with a projected rebound of 1.3 percent in 2024 contingent on political stabilization and improved security; the lower middle-income poverty rate is expected to remain at 63.2 percent.

Topics

Geography

Time Coverage

2019-10-01 — 2025-09-30

Keywords

Macro Poverty Outlook, MPO, macroeconomic outlook, poverty projection, GDP growth, fiscal, Haiti

Entities

World Bank

Notes

World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook, Haiti country brief, Annual Meetings 2023 (October 2023) edition. Haiti section extracted from the Latin America and Caribbean regional MPO volume (no standalone Haiti brief was published for this edition). Part of the semiannual MPO series.