(2023) Haiti Macro Poverty Outlook - Datasheet
Summary — Statistical datasheet accompanying the Spring 2023 World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook for Haiti: the full projection table of macroeconomic and poverty indicators.
Key Findings
- GDP contracted 1.7 percent in 2022, with agriculture down 4.5 percent and services down 2.1 percent amid political crisis and gang violence.
- The fiscal deficit widened to 3.2 percent of GDP in 2022 as tax revenue fell to 5.2 percent of GDP and fuel subsidies rose; the gourde depreciated 17.4 percent and inflation hit 38.7 percent by end-FY22.
- Remittances declined for the first time in decades, the current account turned to a 2.5 percent of GDP deficit, and net international reserves fell 71 percent to US$141 million.
- GDP is projected to contract a further 1.1 percent in FY23 before rebounding to 1.5 percent in 2024 and 2.5 percent in 2025, conditional on political stabilization and improved security.
- Poverty at the $3.65 (2017 PPP) line rose to about 62 percent in 2022 and is expected to remain near 62 percent through 2024, with risks firmly to the downside.
Full Description
The statistical annex to the Spring 2023 edition of the World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook for Haiti. It presents the complete data table underlying the country brief: historical values and projections for real GDP growth, inflation, the fiscal balance and revenues, public debt, the current account, and poverty headcount rates at the international, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income lines, reported by fiscal year.
Full Document Text
Extracted text from the original document for search indexing.
SELECTED INDICATORS* Avg. '10-192009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/21 2021/22 E2022/23 F
INCOME AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
GDP growth (annual %) 1.3 -5.7 5.1 0.5 4.3 1.7 2.6 1.8 2.5 1.7 -1.7 -3.3 -1.8 -1.7 -1.1
GDP per capita growth (annual %, real) -0.1 -6.7 3.9 -1.0 2.8 0.2 1.1 0.4 1.1 0.3 -3.0 -4.6 -3.0 -2.8 -2.3
GDP per capita (US$, nominal) 1368.71204.91306.81356.11452.21454.01404.11305.61384.0 1494.1 1324.9 1283.1 1829.6 1745.9 1786.2
Private Consumption growth (annual %) 2.2 -6.7 3.5 1.1 5.6 0.0 4.5 5.6 5.0 4.1 -1.0 -4.0 1.2 -0.7 -0.2
Gross Investment ( % of nominal GDP) 18.6 25.0 19.1 17.5 17.5 16.5 14.1 16.9 20.2 18.7 20.3 17.7 18.0 15.9 4.9
Gross Investment - Public ( % of nominal GDP) 8.1 17.9 13.9 11.1 10.0 7.3 6.3 3.7 3.7 5.6 1.5 2.5 2.1 1.6 3.1
MONEY AND PRICES
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %, EOP or MRV)¹ 8.8 4.3 7.5 4.7 4.3 4.0 8.4 10.7 10.8 13.3 19.7 25.2 13.1 38.7 37.0
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %, period average) 7.8 2.9 5.2 5.7 5.3 3.2 5.3 11.4 10.6 11.4 17.3 22.9 15.9 27.6 39.8
Norminal Base Money (% of GDP) 16.4 17.0 16.8 17.1 15.0 14.3 16.5 16.9 16.1 17.2 17.3 16.1 18.9 23.5 24.8
Domestic Credit to the Private Sector ( % of GDP)
2
11.4 8.5 9.6 11.5 11.9 12.6 12.2 12.6 11.2 11.6 12.3 9.7 9.8 9.0 ..
10 year interest rate (annual average)¹ .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Nominal Exchange Rate (local currency per USD) 53.4 40.3 40.3 41.6 43.1 44.6 48.6 60.4 65.6 65.4 84.1 99.9 81.1 107.2 143.2
Real Exchange Rate Index (2015=100) 96.6 97.3 101.0 103.1 103.1 105.3 100.0 89.5 88.6 94.2 84.1 84.5 115.7 112.4 116.6
FISCAL
Revenue (% of GDP) 12.9 22.1 18.6 14.9 12.3 10.9 11.4 10.8 10.4 9.9 7.5 7.5 6.9 6.6 7.5
Expenditure (% of GDP) 15.6 24.5 21.6 18.7 17.6 15.3 14.2 11.3 10.9 12.1 9.5 10.5 9.4 9.8 10.5
Interest Payments (% of GDP) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Non-Interest Expenditure (% of GDP) 15.4 24.3 21.4 18.5 17.4 15.1 14.0 11.1 10.7 11.9 9.3 10.2 9.1 9.5 10.2
Overall Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.7 -2.4 -3.0 -3.8 -5.3 -4.4 -2.7 -0.5 -0.5 -2.1 -2.0 -3.0 -2.5 -3.2 -3.0
Primary Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.5 -2.2 -2.8 -3.6 -5.1 -4.2 -2.6 -0.3 -0.3 -2.0 -1.7 -2.7 -2.2 -2.9 -2.7
General Government Debt (% of GDP) 16.2 9.7 6.8 9.4 12.2 15.3 17.8 21.4 19.9 23.5 26.2 23.5 28.4 27.6 28.5
External Public Debt (% of GDP) 11.3 6.6 5.3 7.8 10.0 12.3 14.3 14.4 14.1 12.9 15.8 10.1 12.9 12.3 12.7
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EXTERNAL ACCOUNTS
Export growth, G&S (nominal US$, annual %) 5.7 -1.7 29.1 0.9 18.4 6.1 5.2 -5.9 1.2 6.9 -2.6 -41.5 23.8 -1.7 -35.7
Import growth, G&S (nominal US$, annual %) 6.7 51.9 3.8 -5.4 5.9 7.0 -5.5 -5.0 13.1 12.3 -10.8 -15.0 23.2 -5.5 -34.1
Merchandise exports (% of GDP) 6.4 4.8 5.9 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.9 7.2 6.6 6.6 8.1 6.1 5.4 6.3 5.7
Merchandise imports (% of GDP) 25.1 25.2 25.5 22.5 22.4 24.2 23.3 25.4 26.4 27.9 28.5 24.9 21.1 23.8 20.5
Services, net (% of GDP) -2.6 -7.0 -4.4 -4.1 -3.0 -2.5 -2.1 -0.5 -1.3 -0.7 -0.6 -2.5 -2.5 -0.1 3.6
Current account balance (current US$ millions) -341.1-128.2-295.9-404.8-515.0-595.8-265.3-237.9-324.9 -474.1 -168.6 158.3 98.2 -500.9 371.9
Current account balance (% of GDP) -2.3 -1.1 -2.3 -3.0 -3.5 -3.9 -1.8 -1.7 -2.2 -2.9 -1.1 1.1 0.5 -2.5 1.8
Foreign Direct Investment, net inflows (% of GDP) 1.0 1.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Multilateral debt (% of total external debt)
2
8.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. 7.7 9.6 9.1 8.4 12.7 11.6 10.2 ..
HAITI
See next page for more indicators
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Public Disclosure Authorized
SELECTED INDICATORS* Avg. '10-192009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/21 2021/22 E2022/23 F
HAITI
POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT AND POVERTY
Population, total (millions) 10.5 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.7
Population Growth (annual %) 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
Unemployment Rate 15.5 15.4 14.8 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.5 19.9 19.7 19.7 20.9
International poverty rate ($2.15 in 2017 PPP)
³
28.8 .. .. 29.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. 28.3 29.9 31.3 32.3 33.9
Lower middle-income poverty rate ($3.65 in 2017 PPP)
³
57.3 .. .. 58.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. 56.6 58.9 60.1 61.6 62.5
Upper middle-income poverty rate ($6.85 in 2017 PPP)
³
85.3 .. .. 85.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. 84.8 86.4 87.5 88.0 88.4
OTHER
GDP (current LCU, millions) 776248.6478044.2524124.0569992.5642673.7675571.5720255.0844479.0986919.11076412.71244014.01449887.51699209.02168223.12999480.6
GDP (current US$, millions) 14371.411859.213008.813708.314900.915140.614832.313988.415035.316453.914786.814507.620944.420226.020943.2
GDP per capita LCU (real) 57927.954824.656974.656387.257950.658091.058727.958954.659601.859776.757990.255325.853662.852134.350925.6
Human Development Index Ranking
⁴
160.7 177 157 157 157 159 159 159 159 161 162 162 163 .. ..
CPIA (overall rating)
2
2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 .. ..
Economic Management
2
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 .. ..
Structural Policies
2
3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.0 .. ..
Policies for Social Inclusion and Equity
2
2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 .. ..
Public Sector Management and Institutions
2
2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.0 .. ..
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Notes: ".." indicates not available. E = estimate, F = forecast. Data from MFMOD unless otherwise noted. Poverty data are expressed in 2017 PPP, versus 2011 PPP in previous editions - resulting in major changes. See pip.worldbank.org
1/ World Bank GEM database; MRV = Most recent value.
2/ World Development Indicators Database and World Bank Staff Estimates.
3/ Calculations based on SEDLAC harmonization, using 2012-ECVMAS.Projection using neutral distribution (2012) with pass-through = 0.87 (Med (0.87)) based on GDP per capita in constant LCU. Actual data: 2012. Nowcast: 2013-2022. Forecasts are from 2023 to 2025.
4/ The HDI ranking in 2001 is in relation to 175 countries and in 2010 in relation to 169 countries. Methodological enhancements in HDI calculations have resulted in notable improvements in the countries' rankings.
Sources: MFMOD Database, World Bank WDI and GEM databases, IMF.