(2021-04) Haiti Macro Poverty Outlook

This World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook country brief for Haiti, from the Spring 2021 (April) edition, assesses the combined toll of the COVID-19 pandemic and Haiti's protracted political crisis on the economy. Real GDP is estimated to have contracted by 3.4 percent in Haitian fiscal year (HFY) 2020, with output falling across agriculture, industry, and services, though the impact was less severe than in other Caribbean economies given Haiti's small tourism sector. The international poverty rate ($1.90 per day, 2011 PPP) is estimated to have risen to 25.1 percent in 2020 from 23.6 percent in 2019. Inflation averaged 22.8 percent during HFY2020, peaking at 27.8 percent in August before declining to 19.2 percent by December amid a strong gourde policy, while the fiscal deficit widened to 4.1 percent of GDP and public debt reached 28.8 percent of GDP. The current account turned positive at 5.8 percent of GDP thanks to a 26.1 percent drop in imports and a 13.5 percent rise in remittances that offset a 16.3 percent fall in exports. The outlook projects a third consecutive year of contraction, 0.7 percent in 2021, with poverty rising further to 25.6 percent and a return to pre-pandemic GDP levels not envisioned until after 2023. The brief notes that the Post COVID-19 Economic Recovery Plan 2020-2023 (PREPOC), costed at 24.4 percent of GDP over three years, faces a 3.2 percent of GDP financing gap in its first year likely to be filled by money creation.

World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook, Haiti country brief, Spring 2021 (April 2021) edition. Haiti section extracted from the Latin America and Caribbean regional MPO volume. Part of the semiannual MPO series.