(2024-08) Haiti: Scenario Forecasting for Humanitarian Planning
Summary — A Mercy Corps Crisis Analysis Team forecast outlining three national conflict-development scenarios and one repercussion scenario for the second half of 2024, following the Viv Ansanm gang coalition's February 2024 offensive and the deployment of the Kenya-led Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission. Each scenario is rated for likelihood and assessed for humanitarian access, aid modalities, and implications for IDPs, with recommendations for (I)NGOs.
Key Findings
- The likely scenario sees the Kenya-led MSS (first 400 of 2,500 troops deployed June 25, 2024, USD 21 million funding) helping the PNH secure Port-au-Prince routes, but with limited humanitarian-access gains before the six-to-nine-month mark.
- A temporary escalation of violence between Viv Ansanm and MSS-PNH forces is rated very likely, sporadically cutting access to Martissant, Cité Soleil, and Croix-des-Bouquets.
- A gang blockade of Routes Nationales 1 and 2 isolating the capital is rated unlikely, but would halt humanitarian access and cripple supply routes; contingency planning is advised.
- An almost certain repercussion is continued IDP growth beyond the roughly 160,000 displaced within Port-au-Prince and 578,074 in other departments, straining host communities amid 28 percent inflation since May 2024.
- Recommendations stress partnering with local grassroots organizations, pre-positioning supplies outside blockade-prone areas, contingency routing, and support to host-community market economies.
Full Description
Produced by Mercy Corps Haiti's Crisis Analysis Team in August 2024, this report supports humanitarian planning after the Viv Ansanm coalition's late-February 2024 offensive displaced more than 300,000 people and put an estimated 8.5 million at risk of acute hunger. Research conducted in June-July 2024 combined social media monitoring, secondary data on entry points and supply routes, and over a dozen key informant interviews. Scenario 1 (likely): the Kenya-led Multinational Security Support mission, whose first 400 of 2,500 troops deployed on June 25, 2024 with USD 21 million in funding, helps the Haitian National Police secure main routes and zones of Port-au-Prince, though meaningful access gains are not expected before six to nine months. Scenario 2 (very likely): a temporary escalation as Viv Ansanm counters MSS-PNH operations, sporadically restricting access to zones such as Martissant, Cité Soleil, and Croix-des-Bouquets. Scenario 3 (unlikely): gang infiltration of the southern and northern departments blocks Routes Nationales 1 and 2 and paralyses humanitarian and commercial supply. Scenario 4 (almost certain): the IDP population, then about 160,000 within metropolitan Port-au-Prince plus 578,074 dispersed in other departments, keeps growing, with inflation at 28 percent since May 2024 straining host-community markets. Recommendations centre on partnering with local grassroots organizations, pre-positioning supplies, contingency routing, and market-support programming.