Cartes des lacunes : Une approche géospatiale pour estimer les écarts de développement en Haïti

Maps for Gaps: A Geospatial Approach to Estimating Development Gaps in Haiti Laura Giles Alvarez Juan Carlos Vargas-Moreno Leonardo Pacheco Tenório Cavalcanti December, 2021 3 2 A G E O S PAT I A L A P P R O A C H T O E S T I M AT I N G D E V E LO P M E N T G A P S I N H A I T I A G E O S PAT I A L A P P R O A C H T O E S T I M AT I N G D E V E LO P M E N T G A P S I N H A I T I About GeoAdaptive GeoAdaptive is a global development planning consulting, strategy and technology firm. It specializes in solving complex economic, environmental, and social problems across a variety of industries and scales using advanced territorial intelligence analytics and technologies. By integrating locational data and analysis, spatial econometrics, design and planning, we create strategies for our clients around the world, reducing their risk and maximizing their opportunities for inclusive and sustainable growth. In Haiti, GeoAdaptive supported IDB’s strategy for the country by developing a spatial approach to map and prioritize development gaps. Contact: info@geoadaptive.com About the Inter-American Development Bank The IDB works to improve lives in Latin America and the Caribbean. Through financial and technical support for countries working to reduce poverty and inequality, we help improve health and education, and advance infrastructure. Its aim is to achieve development in a sustainable, climate-friendly way. With a history dating back to 1959, today we are the leading source of development financing for Latin America and the Caribbean. The organization provide loans, grants, and technical assistance, as well as the conduction of extensive research. The IDB maintains a strong commitment to achieving measurable results and the highest standards of integrity, transparency, and accountability. About Haiti The country of Haiti is located in the Caribbean on the western third of the island Hispaniola. It is bordered by the Dominican Republic to the east, the Caribbean Sea, and the Northern Atlantic Ocean. The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) strategy for the country seeks to contribute to higher, inclusive and more sustainable growth that supports a reduction in poverty, inequalities, and development gaps. Copyright © 2021 Inter-American Development Bank. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons IGO 3.0 Attribution- NonCommercial-NoDerivatives (CC-IGO BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ igo/legalcode) and may be reproduced with attribution to the IDB and for any non-commercial purpose. No derivative work is allowed. Any dispute related to the use of the works of the IDB that cannot be settled amicably shall be submitted to arbitration pursuant to the UNCITRAL rules. The use of the IDB’s name for any purpose other than for attribution, and the use of IDB’s logo shall be subject to a separate written license agreement between the IDB and the user and is not authorized as part of this CC-IGO license. Note that link provided above includes additional terms and conditions of the license. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Inter- American Development Bank, its Board of Directors, or the countries they represent. Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Yvon Mellinger, Marta Ruiz, Boaz Anglade, and all of the Inter-American Development Bank sector specialists working in the Haiti Office for their contributions to this paper. They would also like to thank the following GeoAdaptive specialists that contributed to the development of this effort: Sulhee Yoon, Aastha Patel, Alejandra Mejía, and Antonio Turanzas Bernard. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Inter-American Development Bank, its Board of Directors, or the countries they represent. A G E O S PAT I A L A P P R O A C H T O E S T I M AT I N G D E V E LO P M E N T G A P S I N H A I T I 5 A G E O S PAT I A L A P P R O A C H T O E S T I M AT I N G D E V E LO P M E N T G A P S I N H A I T I 4 Image by: Michael Rother Executive Summary This paper presents the results of a development gap analysis for Haiti using a geospatial approach. Gaps are calculated and characterized by means of qualitative and quantitative techniques, including macroeconomic, microeconomic, and geospatial data analyses. The analysis identifies, presents, and discusses 16 sectoral gaps. It is then expanded by overlapping the sectoral gaps to identify possible relations and spillover effects between them. The results suggest that transportation, early childhood education, and crime and insecurity gaps are the most significant in terms of the area and population affected. Results also show that 24 percent of the area of the country and 9.9 percent of Haitians are affected by nine or more overlapping gaps, particularly in the Nord-Ouest, Artibonite, and Centre departments. In terms of the links between sectors, crime and insecurity gaps tend to overlap with gaps in early childhood education and employment opportunities. Many areas with economic diversification or economic opportunity gaps are also agricultural areas with gaps in access to financial services or the transportation network. Moreover, areas with inadequate infrastructure tend to overlap with areas of high risks of natural disasters. Finally, areas with gaps in access to health services tend to have overlaps with areas that have insufficient water and sanitation access. Possible combinations of interventions to address these issues include but are not limited to (i) coordinating security interventions with education and labor market components; (ii) promoting agricultural sector interventions that have finance components; (iii) including water and sanitation access as part of infrastructure and educational campaigns within health interventions; and (iv) supporting greater investment in resilient infrastructure – particularly critical transport, productive, and social infrastructure – in order to reduce the impact and damage of natural disasters. Literature Review, Identification of Sectoral Gaps, and Classification of Priorities Geospatial Analysis Multiple Gap Analysis 9 12 12 14 20 7 27 31 Conclusions and Policy Recommendations References Sectoral Gaps Multiple Gap Analysis Introduction TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Results Methodology Conclusions A G E O S PAT I A L A P P R O A C H T O E S T I M AT I N G D E V E LO P M E N T G A P S I N H A I T I A G E O S PAT I A L A P P R O A C H T O E S T I M AT I N G D E V E LO P M E N T G A P S I N H A I T I 7 6 INTRODUCTION Haiti’s strengths offer a diverse range of opportunities for inclusive and long-term development. For example, a wide range of microclimates provide an opportunity for different crops to grow, and Haiti’s vast coastal resources provide opportunities for the blue economy to expand. The country also has enviable market access, with potential for sizable national demand, proximity to large consumer markets, and preferential trade treaties with the United States. Additionally, the Haitian diaspora of approximately 2 million people maintain strong linkages with their home country through remittances, which are an important source of household income and investment. Finally, 85 percent of the population is under age 65, providing latent human capital that could boost the labor market and productivity going forward. Despite these opportunities, Haiti is struggling with deep, systemic challenges to growth and development. These challenges are numerous, complex, and multifaceted. The country suffers from recurring periods of political uncertainty and high insecurity, leading to mobility restrictions, supply chain bottlenecks, and the erosion of the social contract between citizens and the state. This in turn contributes to lower investor confidence. In addition, social development indicators are concerning. Over 58 percent of the population lives below the national poverty line of US$2.41/day, according to a 2012 household survey (Enquête sur les Conditions de Vie des Ménages Après le Séisme – ECVMAS), Haiti is one of the most unequal countries in the region with a Gini coefficient of 0.61 in 2012, and it ranks 170th out of 189 countries on the Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Additionally, there are significant gaps in access to basic services. According to the UNDP , the quality of education is generally low and 85 percent of schools are run by private entities whose fees are too expensive for the overall population. Health services are also only accessible to 40 to 60 percent of the population, and at least 40 percent of Haitians rely mainly on traditional medicine. The country is also vulnerable to natural disasters. This vulnerability is exacerbated by extreme environmental degradation, buttressed by unplanned and informal development. According to the 2021 Global Climate Risk Index, Haiti was among the three most affected countries by the impacts of extreme weather events worldwide between 2000 and 2019 (Eckstein, Kunzel, and Schafer 2021). Image by: Tim Wildsmith The COVID-19 pandemic, the country’s political and insecurity challenges, and the 2021 earthquake exacerbated these constraints, potentially widening Haiti’s development gaps. The virus poses a considerable health risk to the population, given the limited access to health services, low testing capacity, lack of personal protective equipment, and slow vaccination rollout. The socioeconomic and health context has also had an impact on the economy due to a lengthy economic recession triggered by reduced exports, rising unemployment, and loss of income, impacting household purchasing power. The closure of international borders and the disruptions in supply chains worldwide have had effects on value chains in Haiti, particularly in agriculture, and those effects in turn have fueled already high levels of food insecurity. The escalating political and insecurity crises, which peaked with the assassination of the president in July 2021, further exacerbated mobility restrictions in the country, contributing to bottlenecks for business and production. Finally, the 2021 earthquake had a large cost, both in terms of human lives and the economy in the south of the country. The resulting compound effects stemming from this natural disaster as well as from the country’s health, insecurity, and political crises have thus had an impact on the capacity of the state to respond to such events. The consequences are severe, with worsening social outcome indicators and hindered livelihoods, potentially widening development gaps. For example, food insecurity has increased from 35 percent of the population during the period from October 2019–February 2020 to 44 percent of the population from September 2021–February 2022. 1 Conceptualizing a path for Haiti’s post-COVID recovery and long-term development thus requires a nationwide, multifaceted perspective. In order to address the complex challenges and bolster the island’s potential, it is necessary to look at Haiti’s diverging complexities and examine multiple and interlinked factors. To contribute to this objective and inform such strategies, this study presents the results of a development gap analysis using a geospatial approach. Specifically, the study develops a spatial baseline that identifies development gaps across the entire country by sector and department to provide location-specific diagnostics. It then spatially overlaps sectoral gaps at the department and commune levels to assess possible links between sectors and thus gaps. The next section presents the methodology used, while Section 3 details the gap analysis results by sector and department. Section 4 puts forth overall conclusions and discusses policy recommendations based on the results of the gap analysis. 2 1 See Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), “Haiti: Acute Food Insecurity Situation September 2021 - February 2022 and Projection for March - June 2022,” available at: http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1155096/?iso3=HTI (accessed November 15, 2021). 2 The recommendations and proposed prioritized sectors in this paper do not reflect the current operational pipeline of the government of Haiti, the Inter-American Development Bank, or any other international development agency working in Haiti. A G E O S PAT I A L A P P R O A C H T O E S T I M AT I N G D E V E LO P M E N T G A P S I N H A I T I A G E O S PAT I A L A P P R O A C H T O E S T I M AT I N G D E V E LO P M E N T G A P S I N H A I T I 9 8 METHODOLOGY A combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques is used to identify and measure development gaps across the country. Compared to other gap analysis methodologies – such as those developed by Borenzstein et al. (2014) and Acevedo, Borenzstein, and Lennon (2019) – a geospatial analysis of gaps adds a geographical dimension to the analysis of development needs. It allows for greater disaggregation of gaps across the territory and for location-specific insights. It also allows for a detailed quantification and characterization of the social groups located in the gap area. This provides crucial information to decision- makers and allows them to prioritize and focus efforts to address lagging conditions. The analysis is then expanded by overlapping sectoral gaps and identifying specific areas and people across Haiti affected by multiple lagging conditions. Image by: Heather Suggitt The study follows three methodological steps: (i) Identification of sectoral gaps by means of a comprehensive document review, the Method of Cross- Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification (known as Micmac for its acronym in French) analysis, and a consultation process with Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) specialists; (ii) a sectoral gap analysis using geospatial data to identify disaggregated gaps and their concentration by department; (iii) a multiple gap analysis using the geographic extent of the sectoral gaps to pinpoint areas where multiple sectoral gaps overlap in Haiti. Literature Review, Identification of Sectoral Gaps, and Classification of Priorities Sectoral gaps were identified by means of a comprehensive document review, a Micmac analysis, and a consultation process with IDB specialists (Figure 1) . Twenty priorities were identified based on recurrent themes and challenges highlighted across 32 documents. These priorities were then systematized into four dimensions: productivity, human capital, resilience and governance. Documents reviewed (n=32) Productivity Resilience Human Capital Governance 4 Key Dimensions 30 Preliminary Gaps 16 Sectoral Gaps Prioritized IDB Specialist Validation Energy and Infrastructure Agriculture Private investment & Trade Transportation Education Social Protection Water and Sanitation Figure 1. Methodological Approach to Selecting Sectoral Gaps Source: Authors’ analysis The 20 priorities were classified by means of the open-source Micmac tool, which allows for systematizing and identifying priorities, as well as for analyzing their interrelationships to determine the most relevant and binding priorities for the country. The information used to fill the matrix is qualitative in nature, with priorities assigned a rank based on their influence (0 = no influence, 1 = weak, 2 = moderate, 3 = strong) 3 . From this analysis, 11 key priorities were determined to be the most binding for Haiti’s development, and three of these were considered closely aligned to strategic challenges that require short- term strategies: (i) pursue macroeconomic stability; (ii) promote formal employment creation and conditions 3 Three key questions helped determine the link between priorities: (i) Can the priority have an influence on achieving or generating improvements in other priorities? ( ii) Does COVID-19 have an impact on the interaction of these priorities?( iii) Is there a territorial link that can be mapped between priorities? A G E O S PAT I A L A P P R O A C H T O E S T I M AT I N G D E V E LO P M E N T G A P S I N H A I T I A G E O S PAT I A L A P P R O A C H T O E S T I M AT I N G D E V E LO P M E N T G A P S I N H A I T I Sectoral Gap Benchmark Descriptions Standard Benchmark Benchmark Source 1. Limited access to current and planned electricity resources Areas outside of 500-meter catchment zone of medium voltage grid line and mini-grids as of 2020 500 meters Village Infrastructure Angels 4 2. Limited access to 3G services and cell towers Areas without 3G services from Natcome and Digicall; and areas with >= 45 minutes travel time from the cell tower (proxy calculated from the coverage from cell tower) No service zone OpenCellID 5 3. Limited access to paved road network Areas with >= 45 minutes travel time to primary road and paved secondary road 45 minutes Mathon, Apparicio, and Lachapelle (2018) 4. Limited access to agriculture support infrastructure Areas with less than 4.3 percent of irrigated land; and with >= 45 minutes travel time to agriculture processing facilities 4.3 percent Siebert, et. al (2013) 45 minutes Mathon, Apparicio, and Lachapelle (2018) 5. Limited access to economic potential Areas without human settlements; with <US$1,272.5 GDP per capita; and with a Gini coefficient higher than 0.6 No settlement European Commission 6 US$1,272.5 World Bank (2014) 0.6 World Bank (2014) 6. Low outcome in employability Areas with <60 percent of working age population (16-54); and a > 55.1 percent unemployment rate 0.6 World Bank (2014) 55.1 percent Institut Haïtien de Statistique et d’Informatique (2012) 7. Rural areas with limited access to sanitation Areas without human settlements; and with >35 percent of households not having a toilet facility 35 percent United States Agency for International Development 7 Sectoral Gap Benchmark Descriptions Standard Benchmark Benchmark Source 8. Rural areas with limited access to potable water Areas without human settlements; and with <31.1 percent of households with improved water service 31.1 percent Inter-American Development Bank (2020) 9. Limited access to healthcare Areas with >=45 minutes travel time to a primary and secondary level of healthcare; and with less than one primary care center per 3,000 people 45 minutes Mathon, Apparicio, and Lachapelle (2018) 2.125 ratio of primary care center / number of people World Health Organization (2017) 10. Low outcome in health Areas that have >48 deaths/1,000 child mortality rate (under 5 years old); and a vaccination rate lower than 41 percent 48 deaths/1,000 child mortality rate United Nations Children’s Fund 8 41 percent Rainey, et al. (2012) 11. Limited access to markets in food crisis areas Areas with a catchment zone exceeding 10 miles (45 minutes travel time); and determined to be in a “food crisis” under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification 45 minutes Mathon, Apparicio, and Lachapelle (2018) Crisis zone Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) 9 12. Limited access to early childhood education Areas with >= 45 minutes travel time to early childhood education (i.e., kindergarten); and that have a low ratio of primary education (for the population ages 6-15) 45 min Mathon, Apparicio, and Lachapelle (2018) 2nd bottom quintile out of 5 Bhuyan, Sahoo, and Suar (2020) 13. Low outcome in women’s education Areas with < 50.8 percent women’s secondary education attainment; and with a <79 percent women’s literacy rate 50.8 percent United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization 10 79 percent World Bank 11 14. Disaster risk access gap Areas experiencing deforestation from 2001 to 2019; and where there is >45 minutes of travel time to access to shelters 45 minutes Mathon, Apparicio, and Lachapelle (2018) 15. Limited access to financial services Areas with >= 45 minutes travel time to reach a macro level of financial service; and communes with less than one microfinance institutions 45 minutes Mathon, Apparicio, and Lachapelle (2018) One microfinance institution Development Alternatives Inc. 12 16. Crime and insecurity access gap Areas with >45 minutes travel time to a police station; and with a higher tendency for strikes 45 minutes Mathon, Apparicio, and Lachapelle (2018) 1 1 1 0 Productivity Human Capital Resilience Governance Table 1. Identified Gaps and Benchmarks 4 Vilage Infrastructure Angels (VIA). http://www.villageinfrastructure.org/. Data received from IDB specialists on February 2, 2021. 5 OpenCelliD (2021, February 24). https://opencellid.org/#zoom=16&lat=37.77889&lon=-122.41942. 6 European Commission Global Human Settlement (2021, February 24). https://ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu/index.php. 7 Globalwaters.org, USAID (2021, February 24). https://www.globalwaters.org/wherewework/latinamericacaribbean/haiti. 8 United Nations Children’s Fund (2021, February 24). https://data.unicef.org/country/hti/. 9 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (2021, June 8). http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1152816/?iso3=HTI. 10 UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2021, February 2). http://uis.unesco.org/en/country/ht. 11 The World Bank Data (2021, February 2). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.SEC.NENR.FE?locations=XJ. 12 Development Alternatives Inc. (DAI). https://www.dai.com/. Data received from IDB specialists on February 2, 2021. for development of young people; and (iii) diversify the economy. The other eight priorities were determined to be necessary to address inhibitors of change: (iv) improve rural infrastructure (roads, silos, cold chain, etc.); (v) improve irrigation, transportation, energy, and logistic and basic infrastructure; (vi) increase access and quality of education; (vii) increase access to essential services to enhance human development; (viii) build resilience to climate change in infrastructure and efficient use of land and water; (ix) improve credit provision, especially in rural areas; (x) promote good governance, transparency, and the fight against corruption; and (xi) improve regulations on land registration. From this process, 30 preliminary gaps were identified and classified according to the four main dimensions, each with a specific set of indicators. There were two types of prioritized gaps: (i) physical accessibility gaps, representing availability of support services and infrastructure based on travel time standards and/or overall distribution; and (ii) outcome gaps, representing the level of performance (e.g., literacy rate, mortality rate, among others). Benchmarks for the evaluation of gaps were also determined based on a broad database of available indicators. The list of gaps and their respective benchmarks (outlined in Table 1) were then used to operationalize the geospatial analysis and gap identification. Source: Authors’ calculations A G E O S PAT I A L A P P R O A C H T O E S T I M AT I N G D E V E LO P M E N T G A P S I N H A I T I A G E O S PAT I A L A P P R O A C H T O E S T I M AT I N G D E V E LO P M E N T G A P S I N H A I T I 1 3 1 2 Resilience After the gaps and their benchmarks were defined, a data-driven geospatial process for representation and evaluation of sector-specific benchmarks was performed and cartography developed for those benchmarks. This led to the creation of a geospatial index of the 16 prioritized sectoral gaps. Sectoral priorities, as per the gap analysis, were also matched to other prioritization mechanisms such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. This process is illustrated in Figure 2. In order to provide an analytical approach that responds to the need to understand the relation and possible correlation between gaps across sectors, a multigap index was developed (Figure 3). The multigap index ranges from 1 to 13 and captures the level of overlap between physical access gaps. Those areas with only one or two sectoral gaps represent the lowest level of gap overlaps, whereas the highest level of overlap is represented by areas with 13 overlapping sectoral gaps. The multigap index covers the entire country, summarized by department and categorized into three groups depending on the number of overlapping gaps in any given area: high (9-13 gaps), medium (5-8 gaps), and low (1-4 gaps). Focal Areas for Sector Specific Investments and Multisectoral Action • Range of possibilities to prioritize investment based on sector needs or multisectoral approaches in the Haitian territory Sectoral gap identification • 16 sectoral gap areas identified based on internationally accepted benchmarks and 14 meetings with IDB specialists Multisectoral gap identification • Multigap areas identified based on a spatial index that captures the level of overlap between all 16 sectoral gap areas Geospatial Analysis Multiple Gap Analysis Source: Authors’ elaboration Note: Micmac: Method of Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification; UN SDGs: United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Source: Authors’ elaboration Figure 2. Methodological Approach: Geospatial Gap Analysis Figure 3. Methodological Approach: Multiple Gap Analysis Spatially targeted intervention design Targeted efforts Multigap areas Sectoral gap areas Program Expansion Image by: Claudia Altamimi RESULTS a. Limited access to current and planned electricity The electricity sector faces some of the gravest challenges in the country, largely due to a weak distribution system, with many Haitians connected to the grid illegally, and to dependence on charcoal. • 43.7 percent of the area of the country and 2.7 million people (23.7 percent of the population) are affected by the gap. • The departments of Ouest, Nord-Ouest, and Nord have the largest gaps. b. Limited access to 3G services and cell towers Haiti faces significant barriers related to fixed-line broadband due to low access to personal computers and high rates of equipment theft. Furthermore, the legal and regulatory framework that governs cell service is currently weak and outdated (MTPTC 2019). • 30.5 percent of the area of the country and 1.4 million people (12.3 percent of the population) are affected by the gap. • The departments of Nord-Est, Nord-Ouest, and Sud- Est have the largest gaps. c. Limited access to a paved road network The poor conditions of Haiti’s road network create substantial logistical and financial challenges, particularly for rural households, to access agricultural markets and engage in value chains. The conditions also limit access to basic health, education, and economic opportunities. • 68.2 percent of the area of the country and 4.8 million people (42.1 percent of the population) are affected by the gap. • The departments of Nord-Est, Nord-Ouest, and Sud- Est have the largest gaps. d. Limited access to agriculture support and infrastructure Agriculture is largely informal and heavily dependent on small family farms that are focused on subsistence. Agricultural production has languished in the face of growing rural population pressures, migration patterns, recurrent natural disasters, extreme weather events (e.g., droughts), and farmers’ limited access to information, modern technology, and best practices. • 44.3 percent of the area of the country and 2.4 million people (21.1 percent of the population) are affected by the gap. • The departments of Sud-Est, Nord-Est, and Centre have the largest gaps. 1 5 1 4 A G E O S PAT I A L A P P R O A C H T O E S T I M AT I N G D E V E LO P M E N T G A P S I N H A I T I A G E O S PAT I A L A P P R O A C H T O E S T I M AT I N G D E V E LO P M E N T G A P S I N H A I T I Sectoral Gaps Figure 4. Sectoral Gaps in Haiti 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Nord-Ouest Total of 14 IDB projects in gap area • Lowest employment rate (27.1%) • # of mini grids:0 • % of transmission line 1 (out of country): 5.44% • 64% of the projects are for education and basic health Ouest Total of 221 IDB projects in gap area • Lowest poverty rate (59.9%) • # of mini grids: 0 • % of transmission line (out of country):13.4% • 50% of the projects are for civil society, WAS, and energy improvements 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Nord-Ouest Total of 14 IDB projects • One of the lowest employment rates (28.9%) within mobile connection access gaps • 64% of the projects are focused on education and basic health Nord-Est Total of 31 IDB projects • Lowest poverty rate (61.8) in mobile connection access gap areas • 71% of the projects are for education and social infrastructure Productivity As previously described, this exercise involved the analysis of 16 sectoral gaps. The selection of the gaps and the analysis, which were carried out following the methodology outlined in Section 2, provide insights about the total area and population in Haiti affected by each gap. Figure 4 provides an overview of all 16 sectoral gaps evaluated, with a detailed description and map. Areas in orange in the maps are gap areas for a given sector (underperforming given the benchmark); areas in white are those where there is no gap (overperforming compared to the benchmark); and blue diamonds are locations where IDB projects are or have been carried out. The country’s most severe gaps are identified as those in transportation, security provision, and early childhood education. The results indicate that transportation and physical access are crucial across gaps given the state of Haiti’s road network, with implications for social service delivery, productivity, and the mobility of people and goods. After transportation- related gaps, the most widespread gaps in the country were identified as security provision in unsafe areas and access to early childhood education. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Nord-Ouest Total of 14 IDB projects • One of the lowest employment rates (29.2%) in transportation access gap areas • 64% of the projects are for education and basic health Sud-Est Total of 22 IDB projects • One of the highest employment rates (39.2%) in transportation access gap areas • 45% of projects for education; 36% are for water/sanitation and agriculture 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Sud-Est Total of 22 IDB projects in gap area • One of the highest poverty rates (65.1%) • % of drought area: 88.8% • % of land with irrigation:14.1% • 45% of projects for education; 22% are for water/sanitation Nord-Est Total of 31 IDB projects in gap area • One of the highest employment rates (39.2%) • % of drought area :4.7% • % of land with irrigation:4.2% • 38% of projects are for education; 31% are for basic health e. Limited access to economic potential Income-generating opportunities are limited by the scarcity of jobs and prevalence of low-paid employment (World Bank 2014). The economy depends on remittances and trade, particularly with neighboring countries like the Dominican Republic and the United States. • 50 percent of the area of the country and 2.6 million people (22.8 percent of the population) are affected by the gap. • The departments of Grand’Anse, Nord-Est, and Sud- Est have the largest gaps. f. Low employability outcomes Haiti struggles to promote high levels of formal employment and suffers from widespread brain drain. Despite this context, about 60 percent of the population is currently of working age (between the ages of 15 and 54), and 36.2 percent of the population is under the age of 15, representing future growth potential (World Bank 2017). • 34.8 percent of the area of the country and 2.2 million people (19.3 percent of the population) are affected by the gap. • The departments of Sud-Est, Centre, and Grand’Anse have the largest gaps. g. Low outcomes in women’s education Women are the backbone of Haitian society, but despite targeted initiatives to improve female education, disparities still exist: 15 percent of females ages 12-18 receive no education, compared to 11 percent of males. Additionally, only 45 percent of Haitian women over age 15 are literate, compared to 53 percent of men (World Bank 2014). • 23 percent of the area of the country and 1.1 million people (9.6 percent of the population) are affected by the gap. • The departments of Centre, Ouest, and Artibonite have the largest gaps. h. Rural areas with limited access to sanitation Haiti faces several challenges in sanitation, including limited government capacity, low user demand for improved sanitation due to related expenses, lack of accessible financing, poor management of water resources, and vulnerability to natural hazards. • 40.7 percent of the area of the country and 2.3 million people (20.2 percent of the population) are affected by the gap. • The departments of Grand’Anse, Nord-Ouest, and Ouest have the largest gaps. i. Rural areas with limited access to potable water Haiti faces significant gaps in the provision of fresh, potable water due to an incomplete legal framework and a lack of planning, implementation, and supervision capacity. Water coverage outside the major cities is scarce, and water management is very limited. Many rural areas are only equipped with hand pumps or water kiosks. • 24.1 percent of the area of the country and 1.4 million people (12.3 percent of the population) are affected by the gap. • The departments of Grand’Anse, Nord, and Centre have the largest gaps. j. Limited access to healthcare Haiti is vulnerable to public health crises due to poverty, food insecurity, lack of clean water and sanitation, limited healthcare resources, low educational attainment, political conflict, and densely populated slums. • 36.8 percent of the area of the country and 1.9 million people (16.7 percent of the population) are affected by the gap. • The departments of Grand Nord-Ouest, Artibonite, and Centre have the largest gaps. 1 7 1 6 A G E O S PAT I A L A P P R O A C H T O E S T I M AT I N G D E V E LO P M E N T G A P S I N H A I T I A G E O S PAT I A L A P P R O A C H T O E S T I M AT I N G D E V E LO P M E N T G A P S I N H A I T I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Grand’Anse Total of 58 IDB projects • Highest poverty rate (66.4%) in economic settlement access gap areas • 60% of projects for water/sanitation; 18% for transportation Nord-Est Total of 31 IDB projects • One of the highest employment rates (44.8%) in economic settlements access gap areas • 38% of projects for education; 32% are for social infrastructure 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Sud-Est Total of 22 IDB projects • One of the highest poverty rates (63.9%) in human capital outcome gap areas • High female ratio (51.2%) • 45% of projects are for education; 22% are for water/sanitation Centre Total of 23 IDB projects • Highest employment rate (39.9%) in human capital outcome gap areas • 34% of projects are for education; 21% are for agriculture Human Capital 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Centre Total of 23 IDB projects in gap area • One of the lowest employment rates (48.6%) • Female literacy: 45.0% • Female secondary attainment: 48.6% • 34% of projects for education; 21% for agriculture; 17% in basic health Ouest Total of 221 IDB projects in gap area • One of the lowest employment rates (48.5%) • Female literacy:43.7% • Female secondary attainment:56.8% • 19% of projects for civil society; 17% for WAS; 14% in energy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Nord-Ouest Total of 14 IDB projects • Lowest employment rate (26.7%) in sanitation access gap areas • 42% of projects are for education; 22% are for basic health Grand’Anse Total of 58 IDB projects • One of the highest poverty rates (64.9%) in sanitation access gap areas • 60% of projects are for water/ sanitation; 18% are for transportation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Grand’Anse Total of 58 IDB projects • Highest poverty rate (66.0%) in potable water access gap areas • 60% of projects are for water/ sanitation; 18% are for transportation Nord Total of 26 IDB projects • One of the highest poverty rates (61.7%) in potable water access gap areas • 36% of projects are for education; 27% are for disaster prevention 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Nord-Ouest Total of 14 IDB projects • Second lowest employment rate (29.2%) in healthcare access gap areas • 42% of projects are for education; 21% are for basic health Artibonite Total of 71 IDB projects • Lowest employment rate (28.1%) in healthcare access gap areas • 54% of projects are for agriculture; 17% are for education k. Low outcomes in health Challenges remain relating both to inadequate healthcare access and poor health outcomes. For example, the maternal mortality ratio was 520.8 per 100,000 live births in 2015, while the Latin America and Caribbean average was 73.6 (Wang 2015). • 33.8 percent of the area of the country and 2.4 million people (21.1 percent of the population) are affected by the gap. • The departments of Ouest, Sud-Est, and Nippes have the largest gaps. l. Limited access to markets in food crisis areas Haiti has one of the highest levels of food insecurity in the world. High levels of poverty and inequality limit access to nutritious food, especially for the most vulnerable populations. Physical accessibility and transportation costs remain key factors affecting food availability, particularly in remote areas. Transport costs to food markets make up a significant portion of transaction costs along agricultural value chains. Furthermore, inaccessibility to food markets limits the reach of both producers and consumers, increasing economic inequality and food insecurity. • 35.2 percent of the area of the country and 1.7 million people (14.9 percent of the population) are affected by the gap. • The departments of Nippes, Grand’Anse, and Artibonite have the largest gaps. m. Limited access to early childhood education A large number of Haitians lack access to education. Some of the key challenges relate to low school enrollment, poor literacy rates, high tuition fees, limited government oversight, and a shortage of qualified teachers. Furthermore, gender inequality persists in education. For examples, schools are reported to be the second most common place for sexual abuse among girls ages 13 to 17 (USAID 2020) • 53.9 percent of the area of the country and 3.9 million people (34.2 percent of the population) are affected by the gap. • The departments of Nord-Ouest, Nippes, and Centre have the largest gaps. n. Limited access to disaster assistance services Haiti’s high risk to natural disasters is due to its geographical location and to internal and institutional factors (World Bank 2014). Common natural hazards include hurricanes, floods, landslides, tropical storms, flash floods, earthquakes, and droughts. • 33.8 percent of the area of the country and 2.7 million people (23.7 percent of the population) are affected by the gap. • The departments of Grand’Anse, Sud, and Nord-Est have the largest gaps. p. Limited access to security provision in unsafe areas As crime and violence continue to be a pervasive and costly problem in Haiti, political instability inhibits the country’s ability to meet basic needs, including public safety (Human Rights Watch 2020). As discussed in previous sections, the problem of insecurity has worsened in recent years. • 55 percent of the area of the country and 3.4 million people (29.8 percent of the population) are affected by the gap. • The departments of Nippes, Nord, and Nord-Ouest have the largest gaps. o. Limited access to financial services Formal bank account penetration levels were about 8.6 percent in 2014, lower than in low-income countries globally (World Bank 2014). Only 27 percent of Haitian adults have a bank account in a formal financial institution. Reasons behind this include the lack of a national identity card, physical access to financial institutions, and financial resources to rely on these services. Additionally, financial services are scarce for small and medium-sized enterprises, productive sectors, and the general population. • 44 percent of the area of the country and 2.6 million people (22.8 percent of the population) are affected by the gap. • The departments of Grand’Anse, Nord, and Centre have the largest gaps. 1 9 1 8 A G E O S PAT I A L A P P R O A C H T O E S T I M AT I N G D E V E LO P M E N T G A P S I N H A I T I A G E O S PAT I A L A P P R O A C H T O E S T I M AT I N G D E V E LO P M E N T G A P S I N H A I T I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Sud-Est Total of 22 IDB projects • Highest poverty rate (64.8%) in health outcome gap areas • 45% of projects are for education; 23% are for water/sanitation Ouest Total of 221 IDB projects • Among the lowest poverty rates (59.2%) in health outcome gap areas • 19% of projects are for civil society; 17% are for water/sanitation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Grand’Anse Total of 58 IDB projects • Highest poverty (66.3%) in food access gap areas • 60% of projects for water/sanitation; 19% for transportation; 8% for education Nippes Total of 27 IDB projects • Highest income ($4,033) in food access gap areas • 25% of projects for water/sanitation; 25% for education; 22% for transportation Resilience 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Nippes Total of 27 IDB projects in gap area • One of the higest poverty rates (61.2%) • # of primary schools:0 • 25% of projects for education; 25% for water/sanitation; 22% on transportation projects Nord-Ouest Total of 14 IDB projects in gap area • One of the lowest employment rates (29.1%) • # of primary schools:2 • 42% of projects for education; 21% for basic health 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Grand’Anse Total of 58 IDB projects • Highest poverty rate (66.1%) in disaster risk prevention access gap areas • 60% of projects for water/sanitation; 18% for transportation; 8% for education Sud Total of 32 IDB projects • Second highest poverty rate (61.9%) in disaster risk prevention access gap areas • 46% of projects for education; 18% for water/sanitation; 15% for agriculture 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Nippes Total of 27 IDB projects • One of the lowest poverty rates (60.6%) in crime prevention access gap areas • 25% of projects for education; 25% for water/sanitation; 22% for transportation Nord Total of 26 IDB projects • One of the highest poverty rates (61%) in crime prevention access gap areas • 34% of projects for education; 26% for disaster prevention; 11% for basic health Governance 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Nippes Total of 27 IDB projects • One of the highest poverty rates (62%) in financial service access gap areas • 25% of projects for education; 25% for water/sanitation; 22% for transportation Centre Total of 23 IDB projects • One of the highest employment rates (37.9%) in financial access gap areas • 34% of projects for education; 21% for agriculture; 17% for basic health In reality, sectoral gaps are not siloed, they are often linked to other challenges of other sectors. Although sectoral gaps provide a nationwide picture of the severity of the challenges related to the 16 development indicators, these challenges are multifaceted and linked across different sectors. It is certainly useful to evaluate sectoral gaps independently, nevertheless the sectoral approach can overlook many of these intertwined complexities. Therefore, the goal of the multiple gap analysis is to widen the analytical lens and look into possible correlations across gaps in different sectors. As detailed in Section 2, a multigap index was created in order to evaluate multisectoral gaps. This index captures the concentration (measured in terms of spatial overlap) of sectoral gaps across the country and presents a classification of concentration to facilitate interpretation that is based in three categories: high (9-13 overlapping gaps), medium (5-8 overlapping gaps), and low (1-4 overlapping gaps). The resulting multisectoral gap index is then evaluated across all departments in Haiti to provide an understanding of the level of concentration within each region. Approximately a quarter of the Haitian territory and 9.9 percent of the population are located in areas with a high multigap index score. The results indicate that 24 percent (6,808 square kilometers) of the country has a high multigap index result (nine or more physical access gaps in the same geographical location). When looking at the multigap index taking into account population density, 5.2 percent of the country, and 4.3 percent of Haitians who live in highly dense areas, are affected by the overlap of nine or more gaps, particularly in the Nord, Nord-Ouest, and Nippes departments. Targeted interventions in areas of high concentration of various gaps and with high population density could thus benefit up to 1.1 million people in Haiti, which constitutes nearly 9.9 percent of the total population. The departments of Nippes and Nord-Ouest show the highest levels of gap concentration, affecting 30.3 percent and 26.6 percent of the population, respectively. Figure 5 illustrates the results of the multisector gap analysis by department, while Table 2 presents the demographics by department within high multisectoral gap areas. As shown in the table, Nord-Ouest and Artibonite are identified as the departments of greatest concern. From a multisectoral perspective, interrelationships between sectors can be strengthened where there is a high number of potential beneficiaries and overlapping gaps. Such a perspective opens up possibilities to create efficiencies in implementation and increase returns on investment by capitalizing on spillover effects across gap interventions. 2 1 2 0 A G E O S PAT I A L A P P R O A C H T O E S T I M AT I N G D E V E LO P M E N T G A P S I N H A I T I A G E O S PAT I A L A P P R O A C H T O E S T I M AT I N G D E V E LO P M E N T G A P S I N H A I T I Multiple Gap Analysis Department Area (km 2 ) Population Working Population Employment Rate Poverty Rate Average Household Income (U.S. dollars) 1 Artibonite 1,051.6 (3.8%) 183,604 (1.6%) 149,975 31.20% 50.00% $3,068 2 Centre 809.3 (2.9%) 116,339 (1.0%) 91,222 39.90% 50.30% $3,034 3 Grand'Anse 788.8 (2.8%) 115,543 (1.0%) 92,507 37.10% 67.00% $3,471 4 Nippes 472.2 (1.7%) 106,109 (0.9%) 83,942 27.50% 65.80% $3,508 5 Nord 483.9 (1.7%) 107,173 (1.0%) 83,487 37.80% 66.40% $3,728 6 Nord-Est 526.3 (1.9%) 75,830 (0.7%) 58,171 41.90% 51.80% $3,056 7 Nord-Ouest 821.9 (3.0%) 203,120 (1.8%) 160,761 29.70% 50.70% $3,029 8 Sud 586.9 (2.1%) 67,067 (0.6%) 52,913 35.00% 69.20% $3,259 9 Sud-Est 343.9 (1.2%) 54,484 (0.5%) 41,532 37.80% 65.90% $3,550 10 Ouest 923.0 (3.3%) 80,908 (0.7%) 67,276 52.20% 64.00% $3,666 Total 6,807.90 1,110,176 881,785 37.01% (average) 60.10% (average) $3,369 (average) Table 2. Demographics by Department in High Multisectoral Access Gap Areas Number of Gaps 585,569 892,918 1,365,355 888,519 377,288 1,500,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000,000 500,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Population ( n ) Area ( sq.km ) 549,180 596,042 558,215 539,780 4,273 325,258 267,706 135,652 2,023 2,382 2,239 2,051 2,252 2,343 2,576 2,605 2,170 1,934 1,611 1,051 42 Figure 5. Characterization of the Concentration of Access Gaps across Haitian Departments e. Nord • 10.2 percent of the population lives in areas with a high concentration of gaps. • Access to paved roads, crime and insecurity, early childhood education, and potable water access are the main overlapping gaps. • Proposed coordinated interventions: ° Targeted investments within an urbanization strategy in informal settlements in Bahon, Borgne, and Pilate to overcome gaps in water/ sanitation, energy, and insecurity. ° Increase police presence combined with education and labor programs in insecure areas, particularly in Pilate and Plaisance. ° Promote sanitation and health education campaigns in schools located within health access gaps, such as Borgne, Dondon, and Saint-Raphael. f. Nord-Est • 21.9 percent of the population lives in areas with a high concentration of gaps. • Access to paved roads, disaster risk prevention, access to economic potential, and crime and insecurity are the main overlapping gaps. • Proposed coordinated interventions: ° Promote sanitation and health education campaigns in schools located within health access gaps such as Perches and Vallières. ° Coordinate education and employment programs in insecure areas, particularly within Mombin Crochu, Sainte Suzanne, and Vallières. ° Promote resilient infrastructure, particularly for key roads that link agricultural areas with a high exposure to natural hazards. d. Nippes • 30.3 percent of the population lives in areas with a high concentration of gaps. • Crime and insecurity, disaster risk prevention, early childhood education, and access to paved roads are the main overlapping gaps. • Proposed coordinated interventions: ° Promote education and employment projects in areas of high insecurity. ° Provide financial mechanisms in the agricultural sector that respond to the risk to natural disasters. ° Invest in transport infrastructure, particularly to connect portuary infrastructure in Baradères, Petit Trou de Nippes, and Plaisance su Sud. 2 3 2 2 A G E O S PAT I A L A P P R O A C H T O E S T I M AT I N G D E V E LO P M E N T G A P S I N H A I