A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis for Haiti
Summary — This technical note presents a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Haiti. It analyzes various scenarios related to policy changes and exogenous conditions to assess vulnerabilities and opportunities for Haiti, covering the period 2013-2030.
Key Findings
- The model integrates the impact of public capital investment in infrastructure on sectoral productivity.
- It models worker migration between rural/informal and urban/formal sectors.
- It considers the consequences of government spending in qualified and non-qualified labor.
- It analyzes alternative financing options for the central government.
- The model is calibrated to a FY 2013 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Haiti.
Full Description
This document presents a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model designed for medium- to long-run development strategy analysis in Haiti. The analysis considers various scenarios related to changes in policies and exogenous conditions to assess vulnerabilities and opportunities. The analytical work included analysis of Haiti’s economic and social trajectories since the 1960s, growth diagnostics methods, and techniques for discovering development gaps and key drivers of productivity. The CGE model results are passed on to a microsimulation model that relies on household survey data to assess effects on poverty and inequality. The simulations cover the period FY 2013-2030 and address counterfactual scenarios related to government and institutional capacity, production and productive sectors, human development, and macroeconomic shocks.