Guns, Books, or Doctors? Conflict and Public Spending in Haiti: Lessons from Cross-Country Evidence
Summary — This paper explores the conditions under which public spending can minimize violent conflict in Haiti, drawing on an empirical analysis of 148 countries. Simulations suggest that increased military spending in Haiti would be associated with a higher risk of conflict, while greater welfare expenditure (education, health, and social assistance) would be associated with a lower risk.
Key Findings
- Increased military spending in Haiti is associated with a higher risk of conflict.
- Greater welfare expenditure (education, health, and social assistance) is associated with a lower risk of conflict.
- Economic shocks significantly explain patterns of conflict in Haiti.
- Increased remittances appear to reduce conflict intensity.
- Increased agricultural and textile exports appear to reduce violence in departments which employ many people in these sectors.
Full Description
Haiti's economic development has been hindered by a history of civil conflict and violence. With donor assistance declining and concessional financing growing scarce, Haiti must learn to live with tighter budget constraints. Against this backdrop, this paper explores the conditions under which public spending can minimize violent conflict, drawing possible lessons for Haiti. Drawing on an empirical analysis of 148 countries over the period 1960–2009, simulations for Haiti suggest that increases in military spending would be associated with a higher risk of conflict, an observation in line with Haiti’s own history. Greater welfare expenditure (education, health, and social assistance), by contrast, would be associated with lower risk of conflict. The paper concludes that Haiti should prioritize social spending to reduce grievances and conflict.