The Northern Development Corridor, Haiti Urban Development and Climate Change Study

The Northern Development Corridor, Haiti Urban Development and Climate Change Study (Final Draft) February 2015 Environmental Resources Management 1776 I Street N.W. Washington D.C. 20006 www.erm.com TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Appendices i List of Figures ii List of Tables iv Acronyms v Acknowledgements vi 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Background and ESCI 1 1.2 ESCI in Haiti 1 1.3 Urban Development and Climate Change Study 3 2. Methodology and Approach 4 2.1 Methodology for the Risk and Urban Studies 4 2.2 Study Area 4 2.3 Building upon Key Planning Efforts 5 3. Baseline Conditions 9 3.1 Current Study Area 9 3.2 Current and Historical Land Cover 13 3.3 Physical, Biological and Hydrological Baselines 16 3.4 Cultural Heritage 19 3.5 Urban, Commercial and Infrastructure 20 4. Hazard and Risk Assessment Studies 21 4.1 Prioritized Hazards 21 4.2 Methodology 22 4.3 Climate Change Projections 22 4.4 Hazard Profiles 24 4.5 Vulnerability Assessment 32 4.6 Loss Estimation 33 4.7 Future Studies 34 5. Future Growth Projections 37 5.1 Future Development Projects 37 5.2 Population and Demographics 37 5.3 Urban Area Needs 41 6. Geospatial Model 42 6.1 Introduction 42 6.2 The Geospatial Modelling Process 42 6.3 Modelling for the NDC 43 6.4 Restriction Factors Sub-Model 44 6.5 Attractions Factors Sub-Model 47 6.6 Future Development Projects Sub-Model 50 6.7 Suitability Analysis 50 7. Development of a Sustainable Growth Scenario 53 7.1 Land Suitability 53 7.2 Densification 55 7.3 Capacity of Existing Townships 57 7.4 Capacity in Trou-du-Nord 59 7.5 Capacity in Limonade 64 7.6 Capacity in Terrier Rouge 68 7.7 Capacity in Bord de Mer de Limonade 72 7.8 Capacity in Caracol 74 7.9 Capacity in Jacquezy 77 7.10 The Neighborhood of the Caracol Industrial Park 79 7.11 The Three Bays Marine Park 83 7.12 Risk Reduction Recommendations 86 8. Conclusions and Recommendations: A Smart Growth Scenario 93 8.1 Study Focus 93 8.2 Smart Development Scenario 93 8.3 Challenges to be Addressed 95 BIBLIOGRAPHY 98 LIST OF APPENDICES APPENDIX 1: Individual GIS Maps for the Ecological System APPENDIX 2: Individual GIS Maps for Urban and Infrastructure Development APPENDIX 3: Climate Studies by the University of West Indies APPENDIX 4: Hazard Profiles APPENDIX 5: Characteristics of Assets Exposed APPENDIX 6: Impacts and Losses APPENDIX 7: Restrictions Maps APPENDIX 8: Attractions Maps APPENDIX 9: Future Development Maps APPENDIX 10: Cost-Benefit Analyses APPENDIX 11: IDB Water Study - Simulation Model Development Results NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI i LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 - Area of study – Northern Development Corridor 1 Figure 2 – Area of Study 4 Figure 3 - Composite of some of the mapping developed by the AIA Study (Illustrative Only) 6 Figure 4 - Extract of the CIAT Strategic Plan showing four poles of economic attraction that would result from the implementation of two new urban centres (Champin and Carrefour Chevry) 8 Figure 5 – Human settlements in the NDC 9 Figure 7 - Typical township in the NDC area (Terrier Rouge) 10 Figure 6 - Typical hamlet in the NDC area. (Paulette)10 Figure 8 - Typical road-side settlements 11 Figure 9 - EKAM neighborhood development developed by USAID 11 Figure 10 - Footprint growth of urban settlements in the NDC 12 Figure 11 - Evolution of a housing development in the PIC area 13 Figure 12 and 13 - Land Use for 1986 and 2010 respectively for the NDC 14 Figure 3.2-2 Land Use in 1986 14 Figure 14 - Urban footprint growth 1986-2010-2013 for key urban areas 15 Figure 15 - Urban intensities in 2010 16 Figure 16 - Main ecological system on the Northern Development Corridor 18 Figure 17 - Cultural heritage 19 Figure 18 - PGA probabilistic seismic hazard map for 10% probability in 50 years, i.e. 475-year return period 24 Figure 19 – Coastal flooding with climate change projections for a 50-year return period 26 Figure 20 – Key watersheds in the study area 27 Figure 21 - Inland flood hazard map with climate change 50 year return period 28 Figure 22 – Drought susceptible areas in Haiti as presented by NATHAT, 2010 30 Figure 23 – Monthly variation in water demand and availability (current conditions) 31 Figure 24 – Monthly variation in water demand and availability (projection for 2040 including climate change) 31 Figure 25 - Distribution of block boundaries in the study area 32 Figure 26 - Distribution and Exposure Values of Residential Buildings in the study area 33 Figure 28 - Risk Map: Average Annualized Loss for Earthquake Hazard, Residential 34 Figure 27 - Example of vulnerability function for Coastal Flood Hazard for low rise masonry structure 34 Figure 29 - Development projects 37 Figure 30 - Average annual growth of total population 39 Figure 31 - Urbanization rate in the municipalities of the study area 39 Figure 32 - Topics and elements considered to be restrictions for development 44 Figure 33 - Map of the restrictions sub-model: composite of maximum restrictions 46 Figure 34 - Topics and elements considered to be attractions for development 47 Figure 35 - Map of the attractions sub-model: composite of maximum attractiveness factors 49 Figure 36 - Attraction factors: Development Projects50 Figure 37 - Land Suitability Model Based on Attractions and Restrictions 52 Figure 38 – Optimized land use map 54 Figure 39 - Examples of multi-dwelling and raised dwellings presented at the Zorange Expo 56 Figure 40 - Detail of elements analyzed for each one of the townships in the study area. 58 Figure 41 - Main land uses identified in the township of Trou-du-Nord. 59 Figure 42 - Trou du Nord - Areas selected for calculating the building density. 61 Figure 43 – Trou-du-Nord - Current land uses, areas for densification within the urban setting and proposed expansion areas. 63 Figure 44 - Main land uses identified in the township of Limonade 64 Figure 45 - Limonade - Areas selected for calculating the building density 65 Figure 46 - Limonade - Current land uses, areas for densification within the urban setting and proposed expansion areas. 67 Figure 47 - Main land uses identified in the township of Terrier Rouge 68 Figure 48 - Terrier Rouge - Areas selected for calculating the building density 69 Figure 49 - Terrier Rouge - Current land uses, areas for densification within the urban setting and proposed expansion areas 71 Figure 50 - Main land uses identified in the township of Bord de Mer de Limonade 72 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI ii Figure 51 - A pilotis - supported house developed for the Zorange Housing Expo 73 Figure 52 - Main land uses identified in the township of Caracol 74 Figure 53 - Main land uses identified in the township of Jacquezy 77 Figure 54 - The ‘neighborhood’ of the Caracol Industrial Park 80 Figure 55 - Areas that should be considered for future development 81 Figure 56 - Preferred locations for consolidating new urban settlements in the PIC area 82 Figure 57 - Creating a planned, integrated community with the PIC as pivot. 83 Figure 58 - Preemptive zoning classes proposed for the Three Bays Marine Park 85 Figure 59 - Framework for Relative Risk Evaluation 86 Figure 60 - Standardizing loss damage recurrence comparison for the study area 87 Figure 61 - Smart Development Scenario for Haiti's Northern Development Corridor 94 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI iii LIST OF TABLES Table 1 – Land use change observed between 1986 and 2010 in the study area 14 Table 2 – Haitian stakeholders 22 Table 3 – Summary of Climate Change Projections for the 2040s for Northern Haiti 23 Table 4 - Coastal flooding projections (including for climate change to 2040) 26 Table 5 – Inland river flooding projections (including for climate change to 2040) 28 Table 6 – Summary of water balance for the study area 31 Table 7 - Summary of Impacts and Loss Estimates by Hazard 36 Table 8 – Northern Region Population and Growth Projections (source AIA Study) 38 Table 9 - Place of residence of PIC workers 39 Table 10 - Projections of the population base - scenarios of slow growth 40 Table 11 - Projections of the population base - scenarios of High growth 41 Table 12 – Summary of the main restriction factors 45 Table 13 - Summary of the main attraction factors 48 Table 14 - Total area and current land use distribution in the township of Trou-du-Nord 60 Table 15 - Trou-du-Nord - Urban land uses inside and outside the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ available land. 60 Table 16 - Trou du Nord - Capacity for residential developments inside the urban setting and areas required for expansion in the 2040 fast growth scenario 61 Table 17 - Total area and current land use distribution in the township of Limonade 64 Table 18 - Limonade - Urban land uses inside and outside the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ available land. 65 Table 19 - Limonade - Capacity for residential developments inside the urban setting and areas required for expansion in the 2040 fast growth scenario 66 Table 20 - Total area and current land use distribution in the township of Terrier Rouge 68 Table 21 - Terrier Rouge - Urban land uses inside and outside the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ available land. 69 Table 22 - Terrier Rouge - Capacity for residential developments inside the urban setting and areas required for expansion in the 2040 fast growth scenario 70 Table 23 - Total area and current land use distribution in the township of Bord de Mer de Limonade 72 Table 24 - Bord de Mer de Limonade - Urban land uses inside and outside the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ available land. 73 Table 25 - Bord de Mer de Limonade - Capacity for residential developments inside the urban setting 74 Table 26 - Bord de Mer de Limonade - Distribution of urban land uses under a ‘good practice’ scenario. 75 Table 27 - Total area and current land use distribution in the township of Caracol 75 Table 28 - Caracol - Urban land uses inside and outside the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ available land. 75 Table 29 - Caracol - Capacity for residential developments inside the urban setting 76 Table 30 - Total area and current land use distribution in the township of Jacquezy 77 Table 31 - Jacquezy - Urban land uses inside and outside the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ available land. 78 Table 32 - Jacquezy - Distribution of urban land uses under a ‘good practice’ scenario 78 Table 33 - Total areas of expansion that would be required to accommodate the housing demand expected by 2040 in the ‘fast’ population growth scenario 79 Table 34 - Comparison of Hazards for the study area87 Table 35 - Potential Losses, 10^6USD 91 Table 36 – Summary of risk mitigation measures 92 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI iv ACRONYMS AAL Average Anualized Loss AFD Agence Française de Développement AIA American Institute of Architects CARE Humanitarian Organization CDMP Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project NATHAT National Hydrologic Assessment Tool NDC Northern Development Corridor NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index OAS Organization of American Sates OCHA UN Office for the Coordination of Hu manitarian Affairs CELADE ECLAC Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean OSM Open Street Map OXFAM Humanitarian Organization CIAT Comité Interministériel d'Aménage ment du Territoire CNGIS Centre National de l'Information Géo graphique et Spatiale DTM Digital Terrain Model ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation (Episode) ERM Environmental Resources Manage ment Inc. ESCI Emerging Sustainable Cities Initiative FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FED Fonds Européen de Développement FEWS Famine Early Warning System Network GOH Gouvernement du Haïti IADB Inter American Development Bank IHSI Institut Haïtien de Statistique et d'Informatique PDNA Post Disaster Needs Assessment PGA Peak Ground Acceleration PIC Parc Industriel du Caracol PML Probable Maximum Loss PRECIS Regional Climate Model RN# Route Nationale # SEMANAH Service Maritime et de Navigation d'Haïti SRES IPCC Special Report on Emission Sce narios UCE Unité de Coordination et d'Exécution UHN-RHC National University of Haiti Roi Henri Christophe Campus in Limonade UN United Nations USAID United States Agency for International Development IPCC Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change USAID OFDA USAID Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance LAC Latin America and the Caribbean LANDSAT Satellite Imagery Acquisition Program LEC Loss Exeedance Curve MEF Ministère de l'Economie et des Fi nances MINUSTAH Forces de l'ONU en Haïti UTE Unité Technique d'Exécution WB The World Bank NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report has been prepared by Environmental Resources Management (ERM) on behalf of the Inter-American Development Bank’s (the Bank) Emerging and Sustainable Cities Initiative (ESCI). The contributions and support of the following or ganizations and representatives are acknowledged: Emerging Sustainable Cities Initiative • Ellis J. Juan - General Coordinator • Horacio Terraza - Sector Coordinator, Infra structure and Environment Sector • Patricio Zambrano-Barragán – Urban Specialist, Infrastructure and Environment Sector • David Maleki - Climate Change Analyst • Maricarmen Esquivel – Specialist, Climate Change Division • Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm, Specialist, Water and Sanitation Division • Carlos Mojica, Specialist, Transportation Divi sion • Ginés Suárez – Consultant, Environment, Rural Development and Natural Disasters Division • Raúl Muñoz – Consultant, Water and Sanitation Division • Martin Kerres – Consultant, Climate Change Division • Gisela Campillo - Consultant, Climate Change Division Inter-American Development Bank Country Office • Agustín Aguerre - Country Representative • Gilles Damais - Chief of Operations • Arcindo Santos - Fiscal and Municipal Man agement Specialist • Ana María Sáiz - Fiscal and Municipal Manage ment Specialist • Thierry Delaunay – Water Specialist • Sarah Romain – Water Specialist • Carlos Faleiro – Consultant, Water and Sanita tion • Agustín Filippo – Operations Senior Specialist • Jose Luis Irigoyen – Operations Specialist • Peter Sollis - Social and Economic Specialist Other Bank representatives: • Guirlaine Denis, Ermithes Lauture, Cedrick Jo seph, Stephanie Brackmann, Melissa Barandar ian, Crystal Fenwick, Andy Drumm, Marie Bon nard, Bruno Jacquet, Michel Vallée, Frederica Braun, Priscilla Rouyer Comité Interministériel d'Aménagement du Terri toire • Michèle Oriol - Secrétaire Exécutif • Rose-May Guignard - Urbaniste Senior • Other CIAT representatives: Christelle Baptiste, Eleonore Labattut, and Erdem Ergin Unité Technique D’Exécution - Ministère de l'Économie et des Finances • Michael DeLandsheer - Executive Director • Reynold Pauyo - Technical Director • Alix Clement - Division Chief Local City Officials • Lamour Cezaire, Mairie du Caracol • Gerard Ulysse, Mairie du Limonade • Vercius St-Preux, Mairie du Terrier Rouge • Samuel Romain Junior, Mairie du Trou-du-Nord • Pierre-Louis Annot, Directeur Planification du Cap-Haitien • Jean Frantzdy, Assistant Technique du Cap Haitien • Ravaz Josselin, Assistant Technique du Cap Haitien Other Organizations and Representatives: • Agro en Action - Frantz Varella, Director • American Institute of Architects - Erica Rioux Gees, Director • American Red Cross - Anna Konotchick • CNIGS - Boby Piard • COSMHANNE - Communauté OpenStreetMap Haïti Nord et Nord-Est • DINEPA - Lesly Dumont • FAES - Julio Martinez and Patrick Anglade • Fmg Municipal Nord-Est - Marjorie Victor Dan iel • Jude Marie St. Martin, LOKAL+ • MARDNR/MICTD - Helliot Amilcar • MPCE/DATDLR - Alex Julien • MTPTC - Yolene Surena • OXFAM - Agathe Nougaret and Laurence Des vignes • SONAPI - Georgemay Figaro • UNFPA - Gabriel Bidegain • l’Université Roi Henri Christophe - Jean Marie Theodat, President of the Board of Manage ment • USAID - Christopher Frey and Chris Ward ERM Partners In the delivery of this work, ERM also wishes to thank its key partners: • CEEPCO Engineering Haiti • New Haiti Institute NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI vi 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background and ESCI Cities and urban areas play a key role in the economy of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) through generating opportunities, such as diffusion of expertize and innovation, concentration of spe cialized labor, and provision of educational, cultural, and recreational services. With these opportunities come challenges such as poverty created by in migration and an increasing and often unsatisfied demand for urban and social services, decent housing conditions, and opportunities to generate income. Overcoming these challenges require a comprehensive approach that promotes both sustainable growth and the improvement ofs citizens’ quality of life. Formal and informal growth often leads to negative environmental, social, and economic impacts. Municipal policy makers usually lack adequate data and analysis to inform the design of policies that help promote growth in a sustainable way. In many cases, the implications for the municipal budget in terms of financing infrastructure development and operation costs have not been clarified in newly urbanized areas. Additionally, the environmental impacts of city growth are often not typically fully considered. Areas for conservation and aquifer recharge need to be established or protected, and vulnerability to natural disaster and the effects of climate change reduced. Anticipatory planning can also help reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) as a major factor affecting climate change. In response to this situation and in light of continuing urbanization process in the LAC region, the Inter-American Development Bank (the Bank) launched its Emerging and Sustainable Cities Initiative (ESCI). The purpose of this Initiative is to contribute to the improvement of the quality of life in LAC’s cities in terms of environmental, urban, and fiscal sustainability. To accomplish this, the ESCI provides decision makers with tools, data and initial frameworks for managing urban growth and territorial expansion Through the ESCI, the Bank combines the expertise of its different sector departments in the formulation of comprehensive action plans Figure 1 - Area of study – Northern Development Corridor designed to facilitate sustainable city planning. It leverages its capacities as the leading source of development financing for the region and applies its long experience in supporting the countries of LAC. 1.2 ESCI in Haiti Haiti’s Northern Development Corridor (NDC), shown in Figure 1, presents a special case that re quires flexibility in the implementation of the ESCI methodology. In mid‐2013, ESCI launched the im Northern Development Corridor - Area of Study NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 1 plementation of an adapted version of its method ology for Haiti's NDC, currently home to approxi mately 500,000 people in the country’s Nord and Nord‐Est departments. The NDC includes the com munes closest to the Caracol Industrial Park (PIC), a flagship economic development project that may bring up to 25,000 new jobs to the region in the next few years, unlocking rapid demographic and urban growth and putting pressure on the region's services and resources. In partnership with strategic actors in Haiti, such as the Interministerial Committee for Territorial Plan ning (CIAT) and the Ministry of Economy and Fi Bor de Mer de Limonade, Northern Haiti nance, ESCI is working to help mitigate urban de velopment impacts and catalyze interdisciplinary planning processes in Northern Haiti. ESCI’s ulti mate goal for the NDC is: to deliver site- and city‐ specific plans for urban and infrastructure devel opment in the municipalities closest to the PIC, namely Limonade, Trou‐du-Nord, Terrier Rouge and Caracol. To achieve this goal, ESCI's tailored approach in Haiti involves the implementation of four baseline studies: 1. Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of Natural Hazards. The assessment focuses on four risk categories – flooding (inland and coastal); seismicity; hurricanes; and drought – and using newly developed digital terrain models, in cludes a probabilistic modeling of their impact on the region’s natural and urban landscapes and an estimation of impacts on existing infra structure. 2. Urban Growth Study. This study presents multi‐ horizon projections of urban and demographic growth with two basic scenarios (rapid versus slow) and their respective spatial distribution and impact on existing ecological and urban as sets. The growth models include the potential spatial and growth impacts of new develop ments (e.g., port upgrades in Cap Haïtien) on the four communes’ area of influence. Note that these two studies form the basis for this report entitled Urban Development and Climate Change Study (referred to hereinafter as the ESCI Growth Study). 3. Sustainable Mobility Plan. The plan will engage in unprecedented data collection exercises in Northern Haiti, including an origin and destina tion survey and counts. Based on this data, the Plan will include demand projections and draw recommendations for priority mobility pro jects, such as transport hub infrastructure, multimodal options, and improved services for PIC workers. The geographic focus is threefold: the PIC, the surrounding communes, and Route National 6. 4. Living Conditions Survey. There are considera ble gaps in social and economic information, especially with regard to wages and labor, health and education levels, access to services, disaster preparedness, etc. In order to develop planning strategies and instruments based on NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 2 up‐to‐date and reliable information, ESCI will implement a complete household survey in the urban and rural areas of Limonade, Terrier Rouge, Trou-du-Nord, and Caracol, and gather basic social and demographic information as well as select information on public opinion. The ultimate goal is to develop a baseline of in formation about the households adjacent to the PIC. Building on the results, community feedback, and recommendations from each of these studies, ESCI will provide and promote four site‐ and city‐specific urban development plans for Limonade, Terrier Rouge, Trou‐du‐Nord and Caracol. The plans will also build on previous planning exercises by local partners such as the CIAT, which have outlined a regional vision for the NDC but require local speci ficity and consideration of future development al ternatives. This dual approach – to develop a foun dation for planning based on detailed studies, as well as to build on relevant, past efforts – will en sure that the four urban plans help guide Haitian stakeholders and their domestic and international partners in key urban development areas for the NDC. ESCI’s work will include proposed interven tions at a pre‐investment level, so as to facilitate swift action according to local priorities. These proposals touch on areas such as mixed-use development strategies, design‐driven conservation of landscape and resources, more resilient siting proposals for topics such as housing, and recom mendations for transportation infrastructure at both the commune and regional levels, including mobility options to connect the PIC and its sur rounding communes with new regional hubs such as an upgraded port in Cap-Haïtien. 1.3 Urban Development and Climate Change Study Environmental Resources Management, Inc. (ERM) was engaged by ESCI to undertake the first two studies for the NDC: the Vulnerability and Risk As sessment of Natural Hazards (Risk Study) and Urban Growth Study (Urban Study), collectively presented in this report as the Urban Development and Cli mate Change Study (referred to hereinafter as the ESCI Growth Study).These two studies build upon the work and methodologies ERM has used and developed in conjunction with the ESCI team for similar studies in Cochabamba, Bolivia and Mana gua, Nicaragua. This report presents the consolidat ed findings of the study, with further details and Caracol Industrial Park information contained in the referenced appen dices and supporting deliverables such as a GIS da tabase. This report presents the results of the two studies (the ESCI Growth Study), as well as recommenda tions to address the complex question of where and how urban development should occur in the NDC given various dynamics that shape population growth in the area. This report is intended to pro vide planning tools and insights, and a building block upon which more prescriptive plans and plan ning policies can be developed. It will also help guide decisions about accommodating and influenc ing future growth. NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 3 2. METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH 2.1 Methodology for the Risk and Urban Studies The two studies presented in this report (Risk and Urban Studies) both have clear and defined objec tives as well as significant overlaps and connections to each other. The following methodology was used to capture the key elements of the individual studies and their respective connections: i. Section 2: Development and understanding of current baseline conditions in the study area using: • readily available information from key stakeholders regarding physical, biologi cal, hydrological and urban systems; • defined studies and assessments com prising current and historical land cover assessments; Section 3: Results of the baseline assess ments. ii. Section 4: The baseline is further supplement ed by hazard and risk assessment studies. iii. Section 5: Identifying and defining future growth and development considerations in cluding future population growth projections and future hazard and risk considerations, while accounting for climate change projec tions and future development projects. This is presented in Section 5. iv. Section 6: Geospatial land suitability model ling using the baseline conditions and future projections to identify land potentially suita ble for development. Also includes stakehold er feedback as part of an engagement work shop held for the project. v. Section 7: Development of a sustainable growth scenario for the study area, consider ing both slow and fast growth, presented in Section 7. vi. Section 8: Presentation of key conclusions and recommendations.. 2.2 Study Area The study area shown in Figure 2 covers an area of 49,391 hectares along the Atlantic Ocean, in close Figure 2 – Area of Study proximity to the cities of Cap Haïtien to the west, and Fort Liberté to the east, partially covering the North and Northeast Departments. Geographically, the area of study is located at the Plains du Nord, the coastal plateau where the Massif du Nord mountainous chain meets the Atlantic Ocean. The study area comprises the key towns of Limo nade, Trou-du-Nord, Caracol and Terrier Rouge. The study area boundaries have been defined based upon the following: • The main core of the study area is to be the NDC and the PIC along Route National 6 (RN6) NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 4 given the socio-economic development and growth being promoted as a result of the con struction of this corridor; • The southern and eastern boundaries are de fined by the water catchment zoning; • The west is defined by both the water catch ment area of the Grande Rivière du Nord and the municipality of Limonade; and • The proposed Three Bays Marine Park (Parc Marin des Trois Baies) will be taken as part of the study area and the Three Bays Marine Park will define the northern boundary, albeit the study has been limited to the coastline. In delineating the study area, it is acknowledged that the urban areas of Cap Haïtien, Fort Liberté and Ouanaminthe are important influencers throughout the NDC, and these factors have been considered during the study. 2.3 Building upon Key Planning Efforts The NDC has been the subject of a number of im portant recent planning efforts. This ESCI Growth Study does not seek to replace or supersede these other studies, but rather to complement and build upon them. The two key planning studies of interest are: • The Cap Haïtien-Ouanaminthe Development Corridor Regional Comprehensive Plan, AIA Legacy (referred to hereinafter as the AIA Study). Published in December 2012, follow ing a year of work carried out by the American Institute of Architects nonprofit foundation, AIA Legacy, with funds from the IDB and the United States Agency for International Devel opment. The study was carried out in close in teraction with the CIAT and the Technical Exe cution Unit of Economy and Finance. • The Plan d’Aménagement du Nord / Nord Est: Couloir Cap – Ouanaminthe, CIAT (the CIAT Strategic Plan). This strategic plan pro duced by the CIAT is aimed at developing the Haitian territory, and in this case the north, with greater regard for its natural resources, the risks and vulnerabilities it faces, and the opportunities it offers. It comprises two doc uments, the first of which, Haïti Demain (Haiti Tomorrow), offers a country-wide framework; the second, La Boucle Artibonite (The Arti bonite Loop), defines the space and function ality that should be considered for develop ment in this area that could turn it into a ma jor economic pole. There are a number of areas in which the ESCI Growth Study contributes to the AIA Study and the CIAT Strategic Plan, and further commentary on this is provided below. 2.3.1 AIA Study The AIA Study is divided into three volumes: i) re gional comprehensive plan; ii) urban growth plans for the different municipalities; and iii) detailed analyses by sectors (or ‘focus areas’ as it refers to them), which add up to a cumulative impact as sessment report that is the basis of both the re gional comprehensive plan, and the urban growth area plans. The following are some key aspects of this work: • It presents a framework for how future devel opment of the region should occur, including (i) the principles that should guide develop ment in terms of natural resources, economic growth, infrastructure support and human development; (ii) the levels of plan implemen tation, that is, the regional, municipal and community levels, with clear indications re garding the roles and responsibilities of each; (iii) the mechanisms for implementation, in cluding administrative measures such as zon ing, and (iv) what the plan calls ‘supplemental’ measures, such as community compacts, an chor investments, and others. • Based on the diagnoses and analyses carried out at the regional and municipal levels, the plan reiterates or defines new, significant de velopment projects at those scales, which should catalyze development around them selves and regionally as a result of their ag gregation. • In terms of spatial form and land transfor mation, the plan suggests an area of urban development the south side of RN6. The plan seems to indicate that this area would in reali ty be formed of two separate areas: one to the south east of Limonade, with limited or non-developed areas east and west; the oth er, between Trou-du-Nord, the PIC area and Terrier Rouge. • The plan then shifts to the local level, by means of offering local development plans for the eight municipalities that comprise their area of study (the whole North and Northeast Region). These local plans focus on their ur ban and immediate areas of influence, provid ing clear guidance on green and grey infra structure, social services, road and transport, housing and other land uses. The plans in clude key data with regards to urban growth, based on population projections and housing and land demand. NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 5 Figure 3 - Composite of some of the mapping developed by the AIA Study (Illustrative Only) development processes of each municipality. The AIA Study represents the process of settlement along RN6 as occurring mostly along the south side of the corridor and the local plans are focused on the urban areas only. This does not acknowledge development north of RN6 or the rural and inter mediate areas where settlement may and is likely to happen. This ESCI study will be contributing in this regard by including information from recent surveys and aerial imagery from the area, analyzing what would the actual and projected growth pat terns at the regional level be, and comparing them with the results of the AIA regional comprehensive plan. This will include not only the main townships but also smaller villages or hamlets. Secondly, the ESCI Growth Study will enhance the AIA analysis of potential settlement areas by: • Introducing a larger number of variables to be considered and analyzed as part of the urban planning and land use assess ments. • Introduce greater resolution to the geog raphy of some these variables. • Application of a geo-spatial model to iden tify the areas suitable for human settle ment. • The plan includes a proposal for a new devel opment for 6,000 people, Caracol Nouvelle, that is shown as a model of a planned, mixed use and environmentally sound settlement. The plan suggests that this could serve as seed for additional settlement. Figure 3 provides a composite that illustrates some of the elements and plans considered by the AIA Study’s regional comprehensive plan and the results of aggregating them. There are four specific contri butions that the ESCI Growth Study work will bring in relation to the AIA Study. First, because the regional comprehensive plan is a high-level, multi-sectorial, multi-institutional and multi-leveled instrument, it is not intended to pro vide detail on the spatial configuration of the region as a whole, other than that which would result from the process of settlement along RN6, and the local This enhancement will enable recommendations to be provided that will either confirm, or suggest re orienting, of the results of the AIA regional compre hensive plan in terms of where should development occur. Third, the AIA Study implies that the core of the urbanization of the entire region is to occur within the NDC area, with measures to prevent spatial growth of Quartier Morin and Limonade in the west, and the implication that the stronger eco NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 6 nomic links between Ouanamithe and Fort Liberté in the east will reduce the pressure for urbanization beyond Terrier Rouge. It can however be expected that RN6 will continue to attract settlement along its edges, which could turn the area into a long, semi-urbanized strip, and better understanding the attraction factors for development, which this ESCI Growth Study seeks to do, will enable a better un derstanding of existing, trending and more ‘intelli gent’ urbanization patterns that the region should exhibit as a whole. Lastly, each of the local development plans pro duced by the AIA Study offers a series of elements associated to the growth process. Of particular sig nificance are the delineation of the existing urban boundary, an approximation to the extent of each municipality’s population growth, and the areas where this should be accommodated. With the re sults from the ESCI Growth Study modeling, an as sessment of the location of these areas will be of fered. 2.3.2 CIAT Strategic Plan The CIAT Strategic Plan comprises three elements, under a 2012 – 2030 time horizon: i) a regional di agnostic; ii) a Plan d’Amenagement (layout plan), and iii) a series of implementation measures. The regional diagnostic focuses on seven primary challenges: 1. Accompanying the growth in population 2. Town structure 3. Transforming economic structure 4. Modernizing agriculture 5. Enhancing heritage 6. Reducing vulnerabilities 7. Ensuring good collective management The Plan d’Aménagement contains five compo nents: i) an urban program; ii) an economic pro gram around major projects; iii) a management strategy; iv) a transport plan and forms of habitat; and v) access to public services. The third part of the Strategic Plan focuses on implementation, and provides a discussion on the governance and opera tional structure that ought to be set; a series of orientations or guidelines for elaborating urban development plans at the local level; and an in vestment plan. Important considerations from the CIAT Strategic Plan for the ESCI Growth Study include: • The plan reads as being supported and sup portive on the results and the process of the AIA Study, and reiterates numerous elements of the diagnosis. • It offers a series of guidelines on the areas that ought to be developed at the local level and the criteria or principles that should be followed in each municipality. Because of its scope, it does not provide detailed approxi mations to the geography or the land use pat terns to which many of its propositions should translate. • The plan does not appear to endorse the con solidation of an urban continuum along RN6; rather it highlights the need to urbanize the triangle within the Champin area as the fun damental intervention (in the NDC) that will ensure the balanced distribution of popula tion in the region. • The plan is very clear in the pursuit to consol idate four polarities in the region, one of which would be the area covered by the pre sent study (the Champin pole – see Figure 4). It also offers key elements that would identify it as such, like the new planned development, but also the proposed ‘urban’ corridor be tween Sainte Suzanne, Trou-du-Nord, Cham pin and Caracol. This is a fundamental ele ment not visible in the AIA Study, for it repre sents the only direct link between the moun tain areas of the Massif du Nord, the plateau and the coast, between Cap Haïtien and Ouanaminthe. There are four specific contributions that ESCI Growth Study brings to this CIAT plan. First, an up dated demographic analysis has been performed that yields more detailed and disaggregated infor mation useful to offer a better approximation of where would human settlement likely grow, and the extent of this. Secondly more refined approxi mations will be offered to the geography of the elements that are fundamental to the economy: agricultural milieus, economic development pro jects, protected areas, etc. Third, the CIAT Strategic Plan’s vision will be em braced, such as a network of services that comple ment each other, as opposed to compete against each other; and acknowledging the geographical areas that should be protected for their potential economic value. Finally, alternative locations for new planned set tlements will be identified should the suitability analysis yield areas more attractive as a result of the modeling. NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 7 Figure 4 - Extract of the CIAT Strategic Plan showing four poles of economic attraction that would result from the implementation of two new urban centres (Champin and Carrefour Chevry) NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 8 3. BASELINE CONDITIONS 3.1 Current Study Area The proposed study area presented in Figure 2 is defined as follows: • The main core of the study area comprises the west-east corridor along RN6; • The Trou-du-Nord catchment boundary de fines the southern extent of the study area, and the coastline and associated bays along the northern coast naturally define the north ern extent of the study area; • The easterly boundary is partly defined by the Trou-du-Nord watershed and in the north east by the Terrier Rouge and Fort Liberté municipal boundary; and • To the west, the study is defined by the Limo nade and Quartier Morin municipal boundary. In defining the study area, the urban areas of Cap Haïtien, Forte Liberté and Ouanaminthe are recog nized as important influencers and have been fully considered. The overall NDC area can be characterized as rural because of the traditional land use patterns that it exhibits, including large plantations of sisal and plantain, and traditional small to medium scale farming for production of fruits, plantain, livestock, cassava, vegetables and others. The agglomeration Figure 5 – Human settlements in the NDC Map source: From geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. patterns that have emerged are townships, ham lets, farms, ‘linear’ settlements along roads, and planned settlements, which are presented in Figure 5. 3.1.1 Townships In the NDC, there are three main townships: Limo nade, Trou-du-Nord and Terrier Rouge, represent ing a first tier of settlements. They are founded at regional crossroads, and their urban structure is largely formed by a town center with the main ad ministrative and religious buildings, followed by an ‘organic’ grid of roads that configure blocks of ir regular shape and dimensions. These tend to be between a quarter and a third of a hectare in area. Inside these blocks there is a parcel structure that in general terms is half built, with the remaining area being used as solarium and orchard. Consequently, the idea of a town in the NDC is largely that of an NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 9 agglomeration of single-family dwellings with a yard. The township is surrounded by countryside of me dium sized farms, whose produce is generally sold or ex-changed at the township’s market. In terms of land use, the townships are almost entirely config ured as mixed use, with buildings serving as home as well as office, store, training center, phone booth, restaurant, etc. An example is shown in Fig ure 7, which shows Terrier Rouge. 3.1.2 Hamlets Hamlets are the second tier settlements present in the NDC, and include places such as Caracol, Bor de Mer de Limonade, Phaeton, Paulette and Jacquezy. These are normally located along secondary or ter tiary roads, and exhibit a much simpler structure. In trative posts and other service-related buildings are located. This leads into a network of a few streets or paths that reach the surrounding areas, some of which are used for agriculture. An example is given in Figure 6, which shows the hamlet of Paulette. International relief organizations have developed housing programs in Paulette and other hamlets. In these cases, a difference is clearly visible between the ‘organic’ grid of the ‘natural’ town and the or thogonal grid of the planned settlement. 3.1.3 Farms In the NDC there are numerous types of farming operations, from small farms alongside roads that house two to three generations of a family, and used for family subsistence and market exchanges of the surplus; to large estates exploited for sisal, plantain, citrus, cane and other crops. The pres ence of small farmers along the internal roads in the NDC is partly a result of the fact that they used (or continue) to be employed in the large planta tions, whose owners have given them small parcels to settle. Other, medium parcels and farms are the result of subdivision of the large plantations over the years. 3.1.4 Settlement along roads As a consequence of population growth and subdivision of the original farms along the road, linear areas of agglomeration begin to form, as shown in Figure 8. In some cases because of their population size, they become recognized as ‘urban’ hamlets the main road widens and becomes the main center, in which churches, playfields, adminis Figure 7 Figure 6 - Typical township in the NDC area (Terrier Rouge) - Typical hamlet in the NDC area. (Paulette) NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 10 by the IHSI. 3.1.5 Planned settlements The NDC has also been the subject of numerous efforts by international relief and cooperation or ganizations to provide Haitians with shelter and sanitation, including Food For the Poor, the Red Cross, CARE, OXFAM, CHF and others. USAID has been intensely involved, having pledged after the 2010 disaster to build 3,000 homes as part of the coordinated efforts that brought about the PIC, the completion of RN6, the upgrading or reconstruction of several water and sanitation facilities and other projects of similar nature. The EKAM project is the largest residential devel opment in the study area and was developed by USAID (see Figure 9). The project is located equidis tant to the PIC, the University of Limonade and the township of Trou-du-Nord. It includes 750 homes, a community center, shopping areas and recreational Figure 8 - Typical road-side settlements Figure 9 - EKAM neighborhood development developed by USAID spaces, to be placed on a 47 hectare site approxi mately. Another project for approximately 135 homes is to be built on an 8.5 hectare site that is located just east of the PIC and the crossing known as Jesús. This project is immediately flanked to the west by a customs facility, and to the east by a farm of ap proximately twice the size that is being exploited with sisal that is then sent to a factory located in side the CIP. This sisal exploitation is expected to grow to a 5,000 hectare operation that is described later in this document. NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 11 3.1.6 Growth of settlements Using remote sensing analysis of two LANDSAT sat ellite images (1986 and 2010), and through the use of a 2013 high resolution image collected and used by the IDB to create a digital terrain model for the NDC (see Section 3.2 for more details on the meth odology), it has been possible to assess the changes and growth of the urban footprints in the study area. As illustrated in Figure 10, in the year 1985 the main settlements in the NDC were Limonade, Bord de Mer de Limonade Caracol Jacquezy Phaeton Trou-du-Nord, Terrier Rouge, Caracol, Paulette and Phaeton. At the crossing of the road that connects RN6 with Bord de Mer de Limonade was also a small settlement. Twenty five years later, in 2010, the coastal towns of Bord de Mer de Limonade, Limonade Paulette Terrier Rouge Trou-du-Nord Figure 10 - Footprint growth of urban settlements in the NDC Map source: From geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 12 Caracol and Jacquezy had seen the largest growth. Bord de Mer de Limonade passed from an almost invisible concentrated area at the regional scale, to an area with the largest footprint of all three. Cara col saw its area almost tripled, and Jacquezy had also grown dramatically. The inland townships, however, saw a more normal expansion, in which Terrier Rouge exhibited the largest expansion with 2.5 times the area of 1985, followed by Trou-du-Nord with an expansion of double the size of 1985, and Limonade, with a slightly lower expansion. By 2013, what clearly ap peared in the map as agglomerations were the se ries of linear settlements along RN6 and some of the secondary roads connecting the different town ships. The settlements along the roads connecting RN6 to Bord de Mer de Limonade as well as the road connecting Limonade with the township of Campegne to its South appear to be the more de fined ones. 2007 2010 Figure 11 - Evolution of a housing development in the PIC area 2009 2013 Presently, this linear pattern seems to be the one acquiring more speed. Figure 11 exhibits a series of images from the area along RN6, in the vicinities of the intersection of this thoroughfare with the road that connects to Caracol and serves as one of two access points to the PIC. The series begins in 2007 and ends in 2013, passing by images from 2009 and 2010. The area bound by a continuous yellow line is where a piecemeal process of settlement has oc curred, likely with the support of an international organization. The settlement is currently comprised of a total 37 homes and what appears to be a small communal or commercial facility. The area was rural up until 2007 and during 2008-2009 settle ment appeared, which is also when the construc tion of RN6 took place. According to the images, the settlement began with approximately 13 homes in 2009, jumping to 27 homes in 2010 and 37 in 2013. The settlement is likely to continue growing, and if a measure of the intensity with which it has grown from its inception was applied, the result in 20 years would be a settlement of anywhere between 70 housing units if it grew conservatively to 160 dwellings if it grew with intensity. 3.2 Current and Historical Land Cover A remote sensing analysis of two LANDSAT satellite images (1986 and 2010) covering a span of 24 years was performed to analyze eleven land cover classes for urban, rural and natural areas over time. Final land cover classification was checked for quali ty assurance and quality control issues (QA/QC) through a site survey of the area of study, a process known as ground-truthing. Data collected in the field was used to calibrate the training regions in the most recent supervised classification and in form the execution of all other supervised classifica tions on th