(2025-10) Haiti Macro Poverty Outlook
Summary — Haiti's economy continues declining with GDP contracting 2.6% in H1FY25 due to gang violence and political crisis. Poverty is deepening as GDP is projected to decline for a seventh consecutive year.
Key Findings
- GDP declined by 2.6% in H1FY25, with agriculture contracting the most at -5.8%, worsening food insecurity.
- Gang-controlled territory expanded, displacing 1.3 million Haitians by June 2025 and deepening humanitarian crisis.
- Inflation accelerated to 28.4% by June 2025, led by food prices (31.5%) and housing costs (43.9%).
- Poverty rates increased with 48.7% of Haitians living on less than $3.00/day in 2025, up from 42.2% in 2021.
- GDP is projected to decline for a seventh consecutive year before modest recovery in 2026.
Full Description
Haiti faces a deepening economic and humanitarian crisis with GDP declining by 2.6% in the first half of fiscal year 2025, driven by expanding gang violence, political instability, and deteriorating security conditions. Gang-controlled territory has expanded significantly, displacing 1.3 million Haitians by June 2025 and worsening an already severe humanitarian crisis. Agriculture suffered the largest contraction at -5.8%, exacerbating food insecurity that affects more than half the population.
The business environment remains severely constrained by state capture, weak institutions, and security challenges. The suspension of US commercial flights and intermittent border closures with the Dominican Republic have further isolated the country. Despite tight monetary and fiscal policies, inflation accelerated to 28.4% by June 2025, led by food prices (31.5%) and housing costs (43.9%). The current account deficit widened slightly due to increased imports, though strong remittance inflows provided some support.
Looking ahead, GDP is forecast to contract 2.0% in 2025 before modest growth returns in 2026, contingent on improvements in political stability and security conditions. Poverty rates continue rising, with an estimated 48.7% of Haitians living on less than $3.00/day in 2025, up from 42.2% in 2021. The nine-member Transitional Presidential Council faces challenges organizing elections scheduled for late 2025 amid security constraints.
The outlook remains highly uncertain and depends critically on successful political transition and security improvements. Key priorities include strengthening the business environment, expanding social protection, enhancing disaster risk management, and implementing appropriate fiscal and monetary policies to address inflation and support growth.