(2025-10) Haiti Macro Poverty Outlook

World Bank • 2025 • 2 pages

Summary — Haiti's economy continues declining with GDP contracting 2.6% in H1FY25 due to gang violence and political crisis. Poverty is deepening as GDP is projected to decline for a seventh consecutive year.

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Key Findings

GDP declined by 2.6% in H1FY25, with agriculture contracting the most at -5.8%, worsening food insecurity.
Gang-controlled territory expanded, displacing 1.3 million Haitians by June 2025 and deepening humanitarian crisis.
Inflation accelerated to 28.4% by June 2025, led by food prices (31.5%) and housing costs (43.9%).
Poverty rates increased with 48.7% of Haitians living on less than $3.00/day in 2025, up from 42.2% in 2021.
GDP is projected to decline for a seventh consecutive year before modest recovery in 2026.

Full Description

Haiti faces a deepening economic and humanitarian crisis with GDP declining by 2.6% in the first half of fiscal year 2025, driven by expanding gang violence, political instability, and deteriorating security conditions. Gang-controlled territory has expanded significantly, displacing 1.3 million Haitians by June 2025 and worsening an already severe humanitarian crisis. Agriculture suffered the largest contraction at -5.8%, exacerbating food insecurity that affects more than half the population. The business environment remains severely constrained by state capture, weak institutions, and security challenges. The suspension of US commercial flights and intermittent border closures with the Dominican Republic have further isolated the country. Despite tight monetary and fiscal policies, inflation accelerated to 28.4% by June 2025, led by food prices (31.5%) and housing costs (43.9%). The current account deficit widened slightly due to increased imports, though strong remittance inflows provided some support. Looking ahead, GDP is forecast to contract 2.0% in 2025 before modest growth returns in 2026, contingent on improvements in political stability and security conditions. Poverty rates continue rising, with an estimated 48.7% of Haitians living on less than $3.00/day in 2025, up from 42.2% in 2021. The nine-member Transitional Presidential Council faces challenges organizing elections scheduled for late 2025 amid security constraints. The outlook remains highly uncertain and depends critically on successful political transition and security improvements. Key priorities include strengthening the business environment, expanding social protection, enhancing disaster risk management, and implementing appropriate fiscal and monetary policies to address inflation and support growth.

Topics

Geography

Time Coverage

2021 — 2027

Keywords

haiti, economic outlook, poverty, gang violence, political crisis, inflation, agriculture, displacement, humanitarian crisis, gdp

Entities

World Bank, Haiti, United States, Dominican Republic, Haitian Institute of Statistics and Information, Transitional Presidential Council, Centre department

Full Document Text

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HAITI An ongoing political crisis and increasing gang violence con tinue to depress economic activity, with GDP declining by an estimated 2.6 percent in H1FY25. Agriculture contracted the most, worsening food insecurity. Despite tighter monetary and fiscal policies, inflation accelerated, led by food and housing. GDP is projected to decline for a seventh straight year, deepening poverty. Key conditions and challenges By June 2025, gang-controlled territory had expanded, displacing 1.3 million Haitians and deepening an already severe humanitarian crisis. This, together with deep structural challenges including state capture and an un conducive business environment limit growth and pover ty reduction. Underdeveloped financial markets and weak competition fuel a large informal economy. The indefinite suspension of US commercial flights to the main airport and intermittent border closures with the Dominican Re public have isolated Haiti, constraining domestic resource mobilization. A weak labor market is dominated by low quality, poorly remunerated jobs, alongside low human capital development. In this context, political uncertainty is rising, and humanitar ian challenges are mounting. The nine-member Transitional Presidential Council, established to exercise presidential pow ers, is set to end by February 2026. However, general elections scheduled for late 2025 require substantial planning and face security constraints. FIGURE 1 / Real GDP growth and sectoral contributions to real GDP growth (supply side) Percent, percentage points Population1Poverty2 million millions living on less than $3.00/day 11.8 4.1 Life expectancy at birth3School enrollment years primary (% gross) 64.9 .. GDP4 GDP per capita5 current US$, billion current US$ 25.2 2142.7 Sources: WDI, MFMod, and official data. 1/ 2024. 2/ 2012 (2021 PPPs). 3/ 2023. 4/ 2024. 5/ 2024. Recent developments Economic activity weakened due to expanding gang control in the Centre department, political discord, and abrupt leadership changes. The Haitian Institute of Statistics and Information com posite economic activity index contracted by 2.6 percent in the first half of fiscal year 2025. Agriculture registered the largest decline (-5.8 percent), exacerbating food insecurity. Industry con tracted by 4.5 percent, as trade policy uncertainty weighed on apparel, Haiti’s main export. Services declined 1.4 percent, led by a weakening hospitality subsector. Despite strong remittances in flows, the current account deficit (CAD) widened by 0.1 percent of GDP from a balanced position in the same period in 2024, as imports ticked up. The bleak business environment contributed to weak tax rev enues, estimated at 3.5 percent of GDP at the end of Q3FY25. Recurrent expenditures have performed according to the budget plan. Capital expenditures, however, have been constrained by weak procurement processes, inadequate project execution, and insecurity, including capital expenditure to support security forces. Weak revenues and slow capital budget execution yielded FIGURE 2 / Actual and projected poverty rates and real GDP per capita Poverty rate (%) Real GDP per capita (constant LCU) 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024e 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Agriculture Industry Services GDP Sources: Haiti Statistical Office (IHSI) and World Band staff calculations. 1 Macro Poverty Outlook / October 2025 International poverty rate Lower middle-income pov. rate Upper middle-income pov. rate Real GDP pc Source: World Bank. Notes: See footnotes in table on the next page. a small fiscal surplus estimated at 0.1 percent of GDP by Q3FY25. Tight monetary policy, and strong remittance inflows eased pres sure on the gourde, which appreciated 1.3 percent against the US dollar over the first nine months of the fiscal year. Against this backdrop, the current account registered a deficit of 0.07 percent of GDP during H1FY2025. Inflation reached 28.4 percent by June 2025, up from 25.3 percent at the outset of the fiscal year in October 2024 as security conditions worsened. Inflation was led by higher food prices (31.5 percent in June 2025) and housing and electricity (43.9 percent in June). More than half of Haiti’s population faced high levels of acute food inse curity in the March to June 2025 period, and an estimated 8,400 displaced people are experiencing catastrophic hunger. The share of Haitians living on less than US$3.00/day 2021 PPP is estimated to have increased from 42.2 percent in 2021 to 48.7 percent in 2025. Outlook GDP is forecast to contract 2.0 percent in 2025 owing to uncertainty about the political process, insecurity, an unconducive business en vironment, and receding private consumption. Modest GDP growth is expected by 2026 as investment increases from a low baseline, assuming marginal improvements on the political and security fronts. Uncertainty around the renewal of preferential access to US textile markets may further depress textile exports in the near term. Exports are forecast to accelerate in 2026, contingent on reaching a trade agreement with the United States. The share of Haitians living on less than US$3.00/day 2021 PPP would fall from 48.7 percent in 2025 to 47.3 percent by 2027, if GDP returns to growth over the medium term. The current account deficit (CAD) is expected to narrow in 2025 supported by resilient remittances inflows, widening in subsequent years as imports pick up with modest GDP growth. Increased gov ernment spending ahead of planned elections is expected to con tribute to inflationary pressure in 2025, moderating over the medi um term if security conditions relax supply constraints. With elec tion spending, the fiscal deficit is expected to reach 0.8 percent in 2025. Tax revenue may gradually improve over the medium term as a new general tax code goes into effect and tighter customs controls are implemented. The path ahead remains fraught with downside risks and depends on an effective political transition and improvements in security. A credible budgetary framework and an appropriate mix of fiscal and monetary policy will remain key to reducing inflation and strength ening growth prospects. Inclusive growth will require strengthen ing the business environment, expanding social protection, and en hancing the institutional framework for disaster risk management, including better preparedness and response systems. Recent history and projections 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25e 2025/26f 2026/27f Real GDP growth, at constant market prices -1.7 -1.9 -4.2 -2.0 2.0 2.5 Private consumption -0.7 0.1 -5.2 -4.6 1.6 1.1 Government consumption 17.6 3.3 1.6 35.0 7.4 2.0 Gross fixed capital investment -9.9 -17.6 -36.3 -16.8 20.0 60.5 Exports, goods and services 2.4 -9.6 -31.9 -15.3 5.5 6.1 Imports, goods and services 4.9 -0.4 -16.2 1.0 6.5 7.3 Real GDP growth, at constant factor prices -1.8 -3.6 -4.4 -2.0 2.0 2.5 Agriculture -4.5 -5.6 -5.6 -3.2 1.0 2.0 Industry -0.4 -3.8 -4.7 -0.6 2.5 3.4 Services -1.6 -2.9 -3.9 -2.2 2.0 2.2 Employment rate (% of working-age population, 15 years+) 55.8 55.8 55.4 55.4 55.4 55.4 Inflation (consumer price index) 27.6 44.2 25.8 28.1 19.5 12.0 Current account balance (% of GDP) -2.4 -2.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.8 -1.4 Net foreign direct investment inflow (% of GDP) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -3.2 -2.1 -0.1 -0.8 -0.5 0.1 Revenues (% of GDP) 6.6 7.4 6.0 6.2 6.7 7.2 Debt (% of GDP) 26.6 24.8 15.0 15.0 15.7 15.5 Primary balance (% of GDP) -2.9 -1.8 0.2 -0.6 -0.3 0.4 International poverty rate ($3.00 in 2021 PPP)1,2 43.5 44.6 47.1 48.7 48.3 47.3 Lower middle-income poverty rate ($4.20 in 2021 PPP)1,2 62.5 64.2 66.4 67.7 67.3 66.8 Upper middle-income poverty rate ($8.30 in 2021 PPP)1,2 89.5 90.0 91.5 92.1 91.9 91.5 GHG emissions growth (mtCO2e) 0.2 -1.5 -0.7 1.3 3.6 3.9 Source: World Bank, Poverty and Economic Policy Global Departments. Emissions data sourced from CAIT and OECD. Notes: e = estimate, f = forecast. Data in annual percent change unless indicated otherwise. 1/ Calculations based on SEDLAC harmonization, using 2012-ECVMAS. Actual data: 2012. Nowcast: 2013-2025. Forecasts are from 2026 to 2027. 2/ Projection using neutral distribution (2012) with pass-through = 0.87 (Med (0.87)) based on GDP per capita in constant LCU. Macro Poverty Outlook / October 2025 2