Nourriture pour l'exportation : Une analyse du potentiel d'exportation agricole d'Haïti dans le département du Nord-Ouest

TECHNICAL NOTE No IDB-TN-3009 Food for export An Analysis of Haiti’s Agricultural Export Potential in the Nord-Ouest Department Zubin Deyal Laura Giles Alvarez Nerlyne Jean-Baptiste Giulia Lotti Alejandra Mejia Shawn Proctor Juan Carlos Vargas-Moreno Inter-American Development Bank Country Department Central America, Haiti, Mexico, Panama, and the Dominican Republic October 2024 Food for export An Analysis of Haiti’s Agricultural Export Potential in the Nord-Ouest Department Zubin Deyal Laura Giles Alvarez Nerlyne Jean-Baptiste Giulia Lotti Alejandra Mejia Shawn Proctor Juan Carlos Vargas-Moreno International Finance Corporation (IFC) Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) GeoAdaptive. Inter-American Development Bank Country Department Central America, Haiti, Mexico, Panama, and the Dominican Republic October 2024 Cataloging-in-Publication data provided by the Inter-American Development Bank Felipe Herrera Library Food for export: an analysis of Haiti’s agricultural export potential in the Nord Ouest department / Zubin Deyal, Laura Giles Alvarez, Nerlyne Jean-Baptiste, Giulia Lotti, Alejandra Mejia, Shawn Proctor, Juan Carlos Vargas-Moreno. p. cm. — (IDB Technical Note;3009) Includes bibliographical references. 1. Agriculture-Economic aspects-Haiti. 2. Food industry and trade-Haiti. 3. Agricultural industries-Haiti. I. Deyal, Zubin. II. Giles Álvarez, Laura. III. Jean Baptiste, Nerlyne. IV. Lotti, Giulia. V. Mejia, Alejandra. VI. Proctor, Shawn. VII. Vargas-Moreno, Juan Carlos. VIII. Inter-American Development Bank. Innovation in Citizen Services Division. IX. Series. IDB-TN-3009 http://www.iadb.org Copyright © 2024 Inter-American Development Bank ("IDB"). 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The opinions expressed in this work are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Inter-American Development Bank, its Board of Directors, or the countries they represent. Food for Export An Analysis of Haiti’s Agricultural Export Potential in the NORD-OUEST Department Zubin Deyal* Laura Giles Alvarez† Nerlyne Jean-Baptiste† Giulia Lotti† Alejandra Mejia‡ Shawn Proctor‡ Juan Carlos Vargas-Moreno‡ Abstract This study explores the agricultural export potential of Haiti's Nord-Ouest Department, a region historically marked by food insecurity, high poverty rates, and geographical isolation. Despite accounting for 21 percent of Haiti’s GDP and being the primary source of employment for 50 percent of the population, agriculture represents only 7 percent of Haiti's exports. The sector thus has the potential for greater export promotion, benefiting the country as a whole, but also poorer regions that strongly depend on this activity, such as the Nord-Ouest where it employs 62.7 percent of the workforce. This paper addresses the structural, economic, and policy barriers that have historically undermined the sector's productivity and export capabilities in this Department. Employing a combination of systems analysis, spatial value chain analysis, and quantitative crop ranking, the research identifies strategic interventions to enhance agricultural productivity and export potential. The analysis focuses on crops with high export potential, nutritional value, and climate change resilience. Findings suggest that increasing productivity and boosting exports requires a multipronged approach: improving infrastructure and food processing, combatting socioeconomic behaviors including charcoal production and deforestation, and restoring political stability. Key Words: agriculture, Haiti, exports. JEL Codes: Q17, O13, O19, Q18, R11 *international Finance Corporation (IFC) †Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), ‡GeoAdaptive. Zubin Deyal (zubindeyal@gmail.com), Laura Giles Alvarez (lauragi@iadb.org), Giulia Lotti (glotti@iadb,org) Nerlyne Jean-Baptiste (nerlynej@iadb.org), Alejandra Mejia (amejia@geoadaptive.com), Shawn Proctor (sproctor@geoadaptive.com), Juan Carlos Vargas Moreno (jcvargas@geoadaptive.com). The authors wish to thank Gilles Damais, Corinne Cathala, Géraud Albaret, Aurélie Gilles and Marta Ruiz Arranz of the IDB for their helpful comments and suggestions. Special thanks go to the GeoAdaptive team, whose comprehensive report on the Nord-Ouest provided a critical foundation for the analysis presented in this document. The authors would like to thank Allison Vuillaume for her invaluable assistance in translating this document from English to French, making this work accessible to a wider audience. They also acknowledge the contributions of numerous advisors and colleagues who provided constructive feedback and guidance, significantly enhancing the quality of this research. 1 Contents Acronyms.....................................................................................................................................................3 1. Introduction..........................................................................................................................................4 2. Context.................................................................................................................................................5 3. Methodology........................................................................................................................................7 4. An Agricultural System Analysis ......................................................................................................9 5. Spatial Value Chain Analysis..........................................................................................................14 6. Recommendations ...........................................................................................................................22 7. Conclusion.........................................................................................................................................25 References................................................................................................................................................27 Appendix....................................................................................................................................................31 2 Acronyms BRH Bank of the Republic of Haiti CARICOM Caribbean Community and Common Market CET Common External Tariff EAEU Eurasian Economic Union EPI Export Potential Index FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FEWS NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network GDP Gross Domestic Product HOPE II Hemispheric Opportunity through Partnership Encouragement II IDB Inter-American Development Bank IFRC International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification LAC Latin America and the Caribbean MiCRO Micro-insurance Catastrophe Risk Organisation MSS Multinational Security Support N-O Nord-Ouest NTBs Non-Tariff Barriers PREPOC Post-Covid Response Plan RCA Revealed Comparative Advantage UN United Nations USDA United States Department of Agriculture WDI World Development Indicators WFP World Food Programme 3 1. Introduction Enhancing agricultural production is a key strategy for Haiti to tackle its dual challenges of low export levels and food insecurity. Agriculture is a crucial sector in Haiti, accounting for 21 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 50 percent of employment (BRH 2023). The agricultural sector is crucial for livelihoods, serving as a primary food source, with over 80% of arable land dedicated to subsistence farming (Oliveira 2021). Haiti faces substantial economic hurdles, evidenced by its GDP per capita which is the lowest in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and has declined for five consecutive years. The country’s reliance on imports, and low levels of exports, exacerbate the trade deficit and leave Haiti vulnerable to global price and supply chain fluctuations, both of which have become an increasing concern (Giles Alvarez et al. 2022).1 This economic fragility is reflected in the food sector, where nearly five million Haitians, or 50 percent of the population, grapple with food insecurity, a figure that has tripled since 2016 (IPC 2024). Amid these challenges, agriculture, which has accounted for only 7 percent of Haitian exports since 2009, holds untapped potential as a pathway to ameliorate the trade balance and invigorate the economy with sustained revenue and international reserves.2 National agricultural policies aimed at boosting productivity and exports have been undermined by political turmoil. The Haitian government had already set ambitious objectives for agriculture through the Post-Covid Response Plan (PREPOC) 2021-2023 and the 2010-2025 Agricultural Development Policy, aiming to significantly enhance agricultural productivity for local consumption and export through import substitution and broadening the range of exportable agricultural products. However, the assassination of President Moïse in July 2021 and the ongoing absence of elected officials since January 2023 have severely debilitated the implementation of these policies, exacerbating political instability that has, in turn, increased crime, discouraged market activity, and further entrenched food insecurity. This instability has been particularly detrimental to the Ouest but also to regions like the Nord-Ouest, one of the poorest and most food-insecure regions in the country (FEWS NET 2023a). The Nord-Ouest (N-O) Department is one of the regions that pays the highest price for limited local food availability, despite its potential for food production and export. The Department is one of the most vulnerable regions in the country, presenting high poverty rates, geographical isolation, and a large incidence of development gaps by national standards (Giles Alvarez et al. 2021). In this department, 62.7 percent of the workforce is employed in agriculture (RGA 2008). Specifically, agriculture in the Department is also affected by a complex system of problems, including climate change and unpredictable rainfall, limited job opportunities, and deeply entrenched social cycles. Despite this, the Department also has agricultural processing facilities and transportation infrastructure, including the airport of Port-de-Paix and the port of Port-de-Paix, all of which could support agricultural development to enhance food security and exports. This study analyses strategies to foster greater production and export of food products in Haiti’s Nord-Ouest Department. This is the fourth of a series of papers analyzing development 1 For example, around 80 percent of the domestic demand for rice is met through imports (USDA, 2016). 2 Calculated using the Free on Board (FOB) numbers derived from the Bank of the Republic of Haiti (BOH). 4 gaps in the country, food insecurity in the Nord-Ouest Department and the potential of supporting value chains for the commercialization and export of agricultural products in this Department.3 Specifically, this analysis identifies the structural barriers which need to be addressed to ensure agricultural production and exports are successful, pinpoints the crops that should be the focus of an export-led strategy, and suggests where planting these crops would maximize the potential returns for production and exports. Section 2 provides context for economic and agricultural development in Haiti with a focus on the N-O. Section 3 lays out the methodology for the analysis. Section 4 uses a mix of literature and historical information to present a system analysis of the agriculture sector while Section 5 narrows down specific crops and geographies through a spatial value chain analysis. Section 6 then presents recommendations for improving the agricultural industry. Section 7 concludes. 2. Context Economic & Political Landscape Agriculture is one of the main drivers in a challenging economic landscape. Agriculture stands as an important sector in Haiti's economy, which, as of 2022, recorded a GDP per capita of $1,247.89.4 This marked it as the least affluent in the LAC region and the Western Hemisphere. Accounting for 21 percent of the GDP, agriculture trails only behind the services sector in economic importance (BRH 2023). However, the economy contracted significantly over the past five years, with an average annual GDP decline of 2.1 percent from 2019 to 2023, with a further anticipated contraction of 3.0 percent in 2024 (WDI 2024). Inflation and exchange rate volatility have also been a significant challenge in the country. From 2012 to 2023, inflation averaged 15.9 percent while the Haitian Gourde weakened 70 percent against the U.S. dollar.5 Figure 1. GDP per Capita (Constant 2015 US$) Figure 2. Inflation (Annual Percentage Change in average Consumer Price ) 50 40 30 20 10 2.9 5.2 5.7 5.3 3.2 5.3 11.4 10.6 11.4 22.9 17.3 44.1 27.6 15.9 - (10) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 Source: FED St. Louis ; WEO April 2024 3 The other papers are Giles Alvarez et al. 2021, Giles Alvarez et al. 2022a, and Giles Alvarez et al. 2022b. 4 This is the current Nominal US$ GDP per capita. The chart shows the US$ Real GDP per Capita. 5 Monthly inflation over the last two years has only worsened, averaging 34 percent. 5 Prolonged political instability has worsened crime, food insecurity, and natural disaster vulnerability. Following the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in July 2021, the country’s governance has quickly deteriorated. Since January 2023, there have been no elected officials, a situation that exacerbates governance challenges and hinders economic development (IRC 2024). The Prime Minister installed after the assassination, Ariel Henry, resigned in April 2024, with his replacement Gary Conille, chosen as the new Prime Minister by an appointed Transitional Presidential Council (Al Jazeera 2024). Meanwhile, Kenya stepped forward to lead a Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission in Haiti with the deployment of 1000 police officers, to help establish security. This instability has led to a massive increase in civil unrest and criminal activity, especially by gangs who exert control over parts of the country. As of March 2024, due to gang violence, 362,551 persons were internally displaced, 15% more than last year. According to the United Nations (UN), the number of people killed in armed violence in Haiti has risen by 120% in 2023 compared with 2022, reaching 4,789 homicides or 40.9 per 100,000 inhabitants. This has discouraged market activity and increased food insecurity as gangs have “taxed” farmers, stolen livestock, and displaced workers (UNHR 2023).6 Moreover, inadequate governance has exacerbated vulnerability to disasters, such as hurricanes, floods, and earthquakes, which 96 percent of the population is exposed to, further increasing agricultural risks and decreasing productivity of the sector (World Bank 2024). Haiti has increasingly become a net importer, exacerbating the trade deficit. On average, Haiti's imports accounted for US$4.6 billion annually (31.8 percent of GDP), between 2009 to 2022 (WDI 2024). This figure has seen an uptick from an average of 24.4 percent of GDP in the early 2000s, and well surpasses the LAC average for the period of 23.5 percent. Conversely, exports have remained significantly lower from 2009 to 2022, averaging US$1.4 billion (9.8 percent of GDP), significantly lower than the LAC average of 23 percent. The trade deficit has an average of 22 percent between 2009 and 2022, compared to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), which saw a slight trade deficit of 0.8 percent of GDP for the same period. Agriculture & Agricultural Policy Agricultural exports have steadily decreased over the last 15 years despite strong sectoral potential. From 2009 to 2023, Haiti's agricultural exports as a percentage of total exports have seen a declining trend, with fluctuations across various products. Starting at 8.4% in 2009, there was an initial increase peaking at approximately 9.8% in 2011, followed by a general decline to a low of 1.5% in 2023. Coffee exports experienced a significant peak in 2011 at roughly US$9.8 million, after a starting point of US$3.7 million in 2009, only to follow a declining path that steepened in the last three years, reducing to US$0.2 million by 2023. Cocoa reached its highest export value of US$14.2 million in 2014, and despite some fluctuations, ended up at US$3.4 million in 2023, showing a less drastic but still pronounced downward trend. Mango exports, which were the highest of the three at US$18.2 million in 2009, saw a relatively stable performance until a dramatic drop to virtually zero in 2023 after the United States imposed a ban on the importation from Haiti to prevent the spread of an invasive fruit fly. 6 Gangs have forced farmers to pay fees to them or “taxes”. 6 Figure 3. Exports and imports of goods and services (percent of GDP) Figure 4. Haiti’s Agricultural Exports (percent of GDP) Source: WDI and BRH The N-O suffers from many of the systemic issues which affect Haiti at large. The N-O, which is home to 762,507 people and makes up about eight percent of the country’s land mass, suffers from a high poverty rate, food insecurity, and limited infrastructure. The N-O has an income poverty rate of 63 percent, which is higher than the national average of 57.1 percent (Pokhriyal, et al. 2020). The N-O is one of two Departments where more than half of the population is in urgent need of food support, and where begging, theft, and the sale of productive assets are observed as emergency strategies (FEWS NET 2023b). Moreover, the N-O is relatively isolated, and only connected to the rest of the country through three main roads. These factors have worsened in the last year, following the intertwining political, economic, and climate crises. Heightened crime and gang activity, inflation, alongside below-average rainfall and a severe drought, have decreased incomes, worsened food security and domestic crop production, as well as increased transport costs (FEWS NET 2023a). Agricultural improvement can be an important strategy for sustainable development in the N-O. Agriculture is the most labor-intensive of the N-O employing 62.7 percent of the workforce (RGA 2008). The Department also has a growing labor force and young. It is home to the second largest city in Haiti (Port-de-Paix), and it benefits from access to a port which is Haiti’s closest to the United States, the largest importer of several Haitian agricultural products including cocoa. It also hosts the airport of Port-de-Paix. The N-O is also one of the few Departments which has agricultural processing, with two facilities that are accessible via domestic primary roads. Overall, these strengths warrant an investigation into how the N-O’s agricultural sector can be optimized to boost exports and food security. 3. Methodology This paper employs a combination of methodologies to examine the potential of agriculture to support food production for consumption and export in the N-O. The analysis seeks to answer three main questions: 1) what are the structural barriers which need to be addressed to ensure agricultural production and exports are successful? 2) what crops should be the focus of an export-led strategy? and 3) where should planting these crops happen to maximize 7 the potential returns for production and exports? To answer these questions, the paper leans on a variety of methods, including a systems analysis informed by a literature and historical review, a quantitative ranking of crops based on export potential, nutritional significance, and resistance to climate change and pests, alongside a georeferenced value chain analysis to determine hotspots for production. The combination of analyses is used to overcome the low data quality and availability which is inherent to countries affected by fragility, conflict and criminal violence. A system analysis identifies barriers to agricultural production and exports based on existing literature and historical documentation. Sources for the literature review are systematically searched using academic databases such as Semantic Scholar and Google Scholar, utilizing keywords such as Haiti, N-O, Food, Agriculture, and Exports to ensure relevance. Additionally, the process includes backward and forward tracing from the initial articles identified, allowing for a more refined exploration of the topic. For insights from the field of international development, attention is given to major organizations, relying on their annual reports and country development briefings to enrich the understanding of the agricultural landscape and export dynamics in Haiti's Nord-Ouest region. This approach is also supplemented by anecdotal evidence, including from major websites and other sources, which provide a first hand on-the-ground perspective that many papers cannot. The evidence gathered around the issues that afflict agriculture and exports is then organized into a systems analysis, pinpointing areas of cause and effect, recurrent loops and cycles, and potential interventions (explored later in the recommendations). Crops grown in the Department are identified and ranked based on their resilience, nutritional value, and exportability (Figure 5). Based on key policy documents, 31 crops are identified (Appendix 1), out of which 15 are shortlisted for their potential to provide high and frequent yields while requiring minimal upkeep and investment.7 This is in line with Schwartz (2020) who explains that Haitian farmers, to survive their high-risk environments, plant only crops which have near-zero risk and investment requirements. These 15 crops are evaluated using a 1-5 scale across four metrics: climate change vulnerability, pest vulnerability, nutritional properties, and theoretical export potential (Appendix 2 & 3).8 The nutritional metric, given the need for food security, considers daily caloric needs and essential vitamins and minerals. Based on the cumulative scores across these metrics, a narrower list of eight crops is drawn, which are then assessed on the number of potential value-added products, female participation, local production facilities, and mechanization accessibility. An Export Potential Index (EPI) is considered, though this is undermined by the lack of data, with emphasis instead placed on theoretical justifications of the export potential.9 Figure 5 – Methodology & Process for Identifying Crops 7 The selected products were contained in the "Economic Recovery Plan Post COVID-19 2020-2023 (PREPOC)", the "Produits Typiques d'Haiti", or the "National Agricultural Production Estimation Survey”. 8 The analyses eliminate any crops for which no evidence of growth in the N-O is found. Among these two crops, Avocadoes and Coconuts perform well on all other criteria. 9 The EPI, detailed in Appendix 4, considers supply indicators including the export-import ratio and global tariff conditions, and demand variables like market share, target market tariffs, and distance. Additionally, existing bilateral trade, the exporter’s expected GDP growth, and market growth relative to world growth are analyzed. Despite its theoretical robustness, data limitations significantly undermined the findings. 8 A spatial value chain analysis of the key products follows. To develop this analysis, four steps are taken. First, products are grouped in similar type, as crops within the same groups require similar production, collection and distribution facilities. Second, productive conditions and infrastructure (land, facilities, logistics solutions) of the value chain stages of products are georeferenced. Third, their geographic area of influence (chain catchments) are identified, and their enabling conditions are evaluated. Fourth, value-addition opportunities within the value chain crop groups are analyzed. The inclusion of the spatial component for the value chain analyses allows the key growing locations, processing facilities, and transport routes to be identified based on their geography. Gaps in data availability limit the scope of the analysis. Every effort has been made to use the most accurate and up-to-date data sources available in the country. However, available data on Haiti is incredibly sparse, and most of this document draws on findings from before 2021, the point at which institutional capacity worsened significantly following the President’s assassination in 2021.10 Much of the data for the analysis is obtained from GeoAdaptive (2021), which used data science process such as remote sensing, document and data georeferencing and web2.0 extraction and mapping to build a representative geospatial database. 4. An Agricultural System Analysis A mix of environmental, economic, and sociopolitical issues affects agricultural production and exports in Haiti and the N-O Department. This section analyzes the agricultural system and the factors affecting it, which have been identified through a review of the available literature, including academic papers, journal articles, policy papers, international organization publications, and news articles.11 Substantial investments in Haiti’s agricultural sector have consistently failed to promote agricultural production and exports for over 40 years, due to a myriad of self-reinforcing factors (Schwartz 2020). Though the lack of high-quality data and variability between regions means that this analysis focuses on qualitative methods, the research paints a complex system where entrenched reinforcing behaviors and cycles have consistently caused agricultural production and exports to suffer (Figure 6).12 10 For example, it is difficult for the government and third parties to track farm locations due to land rights challenges. This limits the precision of data on where land is being cultivated. 11 Papers from the literature were identified through searches conducted on major scholarly websites, including Google Scholar, Elicit, ResearchGate, and Semantic Scholar. Key words included “Haiti”, “Nord-Ouest”, “Northwest”, “Agriculture”, and “Exports”. Once key papers were identified, a combination of backward and forward tracing was also used to identify related papers. 12 Due to the underlying qualitative data, the degree of severity outlined in the diagram reflects the authors’ subjective estimation based on prominence in the existing literature and the effects as depicted in the systems map. 9 10 Figure 6: Overview of the Complex System of Issues Source: Author’s Design Based on Existing Literature Haiti’s agricultural sector has suffered due to desertification and erosion, partially resulting from charcoal production. Low income and limited opportunities force Haitians to produce charcoal as a source of income. The process of producing charcoal requires cutting and burning trees, a process that leads to intense deforestation. Charcoal production in Haiti is a large industry, representing 5 percent of GDP (US$392 million) - over 6 times the value of Haiti’s agricultural export market (World Bank 2018). This has left Haiti with only 4% of forest cover, contrasted with the Dominican Republic's 28% (Public Citizen 2017). The lack of trees has caused Haiti and the N-O to experience erosion and desertification, whereby nutritious topsoil is washed away by rain. Williams (2011) found that erosion and desertification have left a mere 20% of cultivated land as fit for agriculture, leading to the overuse of plots and significant degradation. Williams further details that this forced farmers to plant on small plots (less than 3 hectares), and on slopes with a 20% gradient, making farms extremely disaster-prone. Failed soil conservation efforts since the 1970s severely hamper agriculture and further highlight the need for sustainable reforestation (Zimmerman 1986). Climate change threatens to further distort agricultural production. Climate change has increased the frequency and severity of natural disasters and has made rainfall in the barren N O more unpredictable. Haiti is the most vulnerable country for natural disasters in the Caribbean, and the 8th most vulnerable worldwide (INFORM Risk Index 2024). The country registered 124 natural disasters from 2000 to 2023, which resulted in over 240,000 deaths and a significant reduction in GDP (EM-DAT 2024). As climate change continues to affect global temperature and rainfall, natural disasters like hurricanes will continue to affect crop production. Moreover, the N- 11 O, which is often extremely barren, is particularly susceptible.13 In 2023, after a long period of drought meant farmers could not sow their crops, extreme rainfall damaged around 39,458 households, with 13,400 individuals displaced, including many from the N-O (IFRC 2023; FEWS NET 2023a).14 Baro (2002) emphasizes that the risks are more severe in different localities, with some expecting a good harvest every four years due to localized climate, including the onset of rain, which is a strong determinant of yields.15 Political instability, violence, and crime have severely affected agriculture and its enabling infrastructure in the Nord-Ouest (N-O). As explored earlier in Section 2, Haiti’s unstable political environment and ensuing crime and violence have significantly disrupted farming activities, reduced market access, and created barriers to accessing agricultural inputs and outputs. The country’s unstable governance, stretching back over its 200-year history marked by frequent overthrows and assassinations of rulers, has also resulted in low-quality irrigation and drainage infrastructure that amplify the effects of unpredictable rainfall.16 Baro (2002) identified limited infrastructure as a major barrier to agricultural production in his study, noting that irrigation channels suffer from heavy siltation. As the N-O has historically had highly unpredictable rainfall, including long periods of drought and contrastingly heavy rain, the lack of trees and poor infrastructure have meant rainfall washes away topsoil, floods crop yields, and distorts reaping seasons.17 Robert and Harder (2017) also highlighted heat exposure and water management as significant issues, creating a recurrent loop where poor water management increases erosion and desertification, which worsens flooding and soil erosion.18 Limited access to finance, including microinsurance and microcredit schemes, as well as limited knowledge leaves agriculture as a high-risk activity. The combination of severe environmental and social factors means that agriculture in the N-O is a high-risk activity, skewing the risk-to-reward ratio against alternatives like charcoal production.19 The limited access to insurance and credit further worsens this issue and creates a negative feedback loop in the industry which becomes perennially high risk. Though Haiti has innovative systems for disaster related insurance through the Micro-insurance Catastrophe Risk Organisation (MiCRO) and the 13 In the irrigated zone, the calendar is flexible, with planting spread throughout the year. The dry zones do not have a third season, whereas in the humid and irrigated zones, the third planting season is exclusively for bean cultivation. 14 A noteworthy response comes from Roberts and Harder (2017) who quoted a survey respondent: “We are suffering a lot because we are living without water. If God would allow us to have a way to have water that would be best.” 15 The paper outlines that the Northwest has three growing seasons. In a normal year, the first begins in March/April, the second in September, and the last in November. The onset of the rains is a key factor in determining the seasons. 16 Since its independence over 200 years ago, Haiti has had challenges with governance. Between 1843 and 1915 alone, 16 out of 20 rulers were either overthrown by revolution or assassinated, and at least five rulers, in total, have been assassinated while in power (Britannica 2024) (Celucian J. Joseph 2021). 17 Political Champions Group (2013) explain: “Floods contribute considerably to the country’s vulnerability. The most populated cities are all nestled in the valleys along the coast. When it rains, the steep, often barren hills around them flush rainwater towards the urban areas. Widespread deforestation in the upper reaches of these valleys, coupled of lacking drainage infrastructure, exacerbates the geographical propensity. Various Departments experience repeated droughts, from a combination of erratic rainfall patterns coupled with limited water management infrastructure. This has destroyed crops, reduced agricultural production, and decreased food security.” 18 Similarly, periods of long droughts expose nutritious topsoil which then becomes more likely to be washed away. 19 From an individual perspective, coal production as an income source has numerous advantages to agriculture. Firstly, it requires far less resources (trees) than agriculture (land, seeds, tools, etc.). Secondly, it has a far shorter period between the time for investment and the payoff period than agriculture, with fewer external factors affecting the potential returns. Agriculture takes at least a few weeks between planting and reaping, and can be affected by a host of environmental factors and political factors (including rainfall, disasters, and crime). On the other hand, coal production usually only takes a few days and has very few factors which can affect its output. 12 Caribbean Catastrophe Insurance Facility (CCRIF), private sector insurance is generally underdeveloped. For instance, there is little use of agriculture index insurance, or insurance which can stabilize farmers’ incomes by tying variations in yields to payoffs (Political Champions Group 2013).20 In terms of access to finance, Baro (2002) and Roberts and Harder (2017) explain that as the inputs of seeds, fertilizer and water require purchasing power, limited credit prevents farmers from achieving the size needed for exportation.21 They further state that the lack of knowledge about contemporary farming is a binding constraint. Zelaya, Harder, and Roberts (2016) reinforce this, stating farmers in the N-O suffer from a lack of quality information, and are undermined by the distrust of service providers. The lack of knowledge of agricultural practices suggests that farmers can benefit from human capital training and upskilling. Subsistence farming minimizes risks but inhibits exports. To cope with the high risk of agriculture, farmers in Haiti have opted for subsistence farming, whereby they produce many crops in small quantities on small plots of land. Subsistence farming is a diversification strategy for reducing risk, whereby individual farmers can reduce the impact of any negative changes on a singular crop (for instance the effects of pests, changing weather, or trade barriers) from affecting their entire income. Moreover, it enables farmers, in the event of any negative shock affecting the country, to get a nutritious diet comprising a mix of produce, and not a singular input. Though subsistence farming is good for the individual farmer as a risk management approach, this strategy stifles exports. Monocropping or producing complementary crops is required to gain economies of scale for export by spreading the necessary physical and human capital for production to reduce per unit cost. Roberts and Harder (2017), for instance, suggest subsistence farming and small-scale production lead to food shortages and low exports. Reliance on the imports of rice has created dependency and aid substitution that has discouraged local agricultural production. The country’s low income and inherent political instability has caused widespread malnutrition which has historically been addressed through importing foods that compete with local products. Such is the case with rice, which after being pushed for decades by organizations like USAID not only contains dangerous levels of arsenic and cancer-inducing chemicals, it has also destabilized the agricultural industry (Reuters 2024). The import of rice as aid has undercut local prices and producers, who cannot compete with the highly subsidized grain (Dodds 2010). On the back of structural adjustment programmes from the IMF and World Bank, the tariff on rice in the 1990s in Haiti fell from 50 percent to 3 percent (McGuigan 2006; IMF 2001). Rice consumption surged, from supplying 7 percent of calories in the 1980s to 23 percent, with over 80 percent of the supply imported (Cochrane, Childs and Rosen 2016).22 Former U.S. President Bill Clinton, who was instrumental in removing rice tariffs in Haiti, has said about the policies, "It may have been good for some of my farmers in Arkansas, but it has not worked. It was a mistake, I had to live every day with the consequences of the loss of 20 Though the first instance of agricultural payout occurred in 2023 to 9,400 people through the support of the World Food Programme (WFP) Haiti, the pilot was only in the Grand Anse and South regions. The project aims to support agricultural communities against excess or insufficient rainfall, with a maximum compensation of US$900. 21 Financial constraints also have a large effect on farmers’ livelihoods and their family’s well-being, in addition to affecting their ability to purchase essential assets. 22 In 1985, FAO reported Haiti’s per capita rice supply at a mere 13.1 kilograms per person, well below 31 kilograms for corn and 94 kilograms for starchy roots, historically the largest component of Haiti’s food supply. By 2011, per capita rice consumption had risen to 48 kilograms, from 7 to 23 percent of the total caloric supply from starches. As of 2016, the country imported 10 percent of total US rice exports (Cochrane, Childs and Rosen 2016). 13 capacity to produce a rice crop in Haiti to feed those people because of what I did; nobody else” (Phillips and Watson 2011; Mullin 2024). Even if farmers manage to overcome all the barriers to agricultural production mentioned above, there are many barriers which then inhibit the export of crops to foreign markets. One of the most severe factors is the poor transportation infrastructure. Most of the country’s remaining arable land is scattered in rural areas away from the main cities. This means any food grown there will have to be transported a long distance to be processed or exported. However, as Haiti’s road quality is poor - the country has the 6th worst roads in the world - transportation is difficult (World Population Review 2024). Despite government investments, the condition of roads remains subpar, with only 29 percent deemed to be in good condition in 2021 (IDB 2023). This is true for the Nord-Ouest as well, the main areas of which are connected by only a few paved roads, with the reliance on a network of unpaved roads. The low road quality is made worse by the country having only three main seaports for exports, Cap Haïtien in the North, and Port-au-Prince and Port Lafito in the South (Ahmed 2023; USAID 2017). Cap Haïtien, which is the closest to the Nord-Ouest, is still a 4.5-hour drive away from Port-de-Paix. Trade barriers are a significant deterrent to agricultural exports. Though on paper Haiti benefits from many preferential trade agreements, including for agriculture, the country’s trade is affected by Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) which discourage exports to large developed markets (Appendix 5). For instance, mango exports, Haiti’s largest agricultural crop export in 2022, collapsed to near zero from US$12 million in 2020 after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) issued a ban against their import.23 The barrier which was levied to prevent the spread of a potentially invasive fruit fly in unripen mangoes to the U.S., requires Haiti to treat mangos before exporting by immersing them in a hot water bath (115oF) for 60-90 minutes. Though Haiti had ten packing facilities with these systems in 2011, nine were in Port-au-Prince, and it is unclear whether these are operational (USDA 2022). Navarro, Currie, and Mercer (2020) also shed light on compliance with health regulations that influence the export potential of cocoa and coffee in Northern Haiti. Through their survey of 11 farms, they find low compliance with Good Agricultural Practices (GAPs) with significant challenges including poor infrastructure, inadequate sanitation, and a deficiency in technical training. Livestock and pets accessing production, inadequate control of agricultural chemicals, and unsafe water practices, also posed serious risks to contamination and exports. 5. Spatial Value Chain Analysis The systematic representation of the locational distribution of value chain components, allows the evaluation of production activities as it relates to enabling factors and human conditions. A spatial approach improves value-chain analysis since it allows the integration of social gender and labor inclusion considerations as well as resilience dimensions since allows the investigation of correlation between production, population and climate characteristics. This permits a comprehensive evaluation that can better inform policy and action. Haiti’s agricultural sector, despite structural challenges, still holds substantial potential for growth and development, including in the Nord-Ouest Department. To capitalize on this 23 Mangos were one of Haiti’s most important exports, with the majority coming from backyard fruit trees, and their sale providing income to 150,000 - 200,000 small producers nationwide (Quixote Center 2022). 14 potential, this Section examines which crops can be effectively produced and exported and identifies where production and distribution can be concentrated. As mentioned in Section 3, out of 31 potential crops grown in Haiti (Appendix 1), the analysis narrows down eight key crops that have the highest potential for export (Appendix 2 & 3). The narrowing down is based on the crops’ climate resilience, pest resistance, nutritional value, export potential (Appendix 4), high and frequent yields, and minimal upkeep and investment requirements. These eight crops are then categorized into three groups namely Tubers and Cereals (yam, sweet potato, cassava, and maize), Fruits (mangoes, guava, and breadfruit) and Legumes (peanuts) (Table 1). The grouping is based on the similarity of crop characteristics, know-how requirements, and production processes. The grouping also accounts for the possibility of shared crop production to promote a more efficient use of inputs, such as land and water. Table 1: Table of Crops & Values Along Key Variables Group Crops Nutritious Value Climate Change Resilience Resistance to Pests Theoretical Export Potential Number of Value Added Products Export Potential Index (EPI) Local Production Facilities Mechanization Accessibility Tubers Fruits Sweet Potato 5 4 3 3 29 0 1 3 Maize 4 3 2 1 29 0 2 3 Yam 5 4 3 3 29 0 1 3 Cassava 4 5 4 2 29 0 1 3 Mangoes 4 2 3 5 14 30.1 0 2 Guava 5 4 3 3 14 0 0 2 Breadfruit 4 4 4 3 13 0 0 2 Legumes Peanuts 5 3 3 3 15 0.2 0 4 Source: Nutritious Value, Climate Change Resilience, Resistance to Pests, and Theoretical Export Potential are scale variables with 1-5 ratings based on author’s estimations. The Number of Value Added Products, Export Potential Index (EPI), Local Production Facilities, and Mechanization Accessibility are taken GeoAdaptive (2021). Tubers & Cereals Yam, sweet potato, cassava and maize grow extensively in the Nord-Ouest and contribute significantly to local dietary needs. The Department produced over 50,465 metric tons of these four crops in 2013 (7.6 percent of national production).24 Maize production was the largest in the N-O, comprising 17,093 tons, with 75 percent of producers in the country growing the crop (FEWS NET 2018). Both maize and tubers are also mainstays in local Haitian diets, supplying 12 and 7 percent respectively of total daily caloric needs over 2019-2021 (FAOSTAT 2024). Though nearly the entire national consumption of tubers is from the domestic supply, a significant amount of maize is imported, 20 percent (57,000 tons) in 2021. The Nord-Ouest, however, is one of the few regions that has consistently registered a surplus. These crops have high resilience and significant nutritional value. Tubers, especially cassava, are drought-resistant and grow well in a range of conditions, including low-quality soil. This makes them an ideal crop for the N-O, which will continue to suffer from variable rainfall and the other environmental effects of climate change. Maize on the other hand is a little more sensitive to water stress and can be affected by drought and flooding. Similarly, tubers are more resistant to pests than maize, which is vulnerable to corn earworms, borers, aphids, and a variety of diseases. Overall, these crops are nutrient-rich and are an important source of carbohydrates 24 Figures for sweet potato export and production were not available, though several papers confirm that the crop is grown extensively in the Nord-Ouest (FEWS NET 2018). 15 and fiber. Sweet potatoes are the most nutritious, filled with fiber and vitamins A and C. While maize, cassava, and yams offer essential carbohydrates and B vitamins, they need complementary protein. Cassava especially is less nutrient-dense overall than the others. This crop group has a high potential for targeted exportation. Tubers have niche demand from the African and Caribbean diaspora living in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and continental Europe. Generally, tubers, especially sweet potatoes, have also had an increase in global demand as their complex carbohydrate structure provides low-calorie sources of energy for increasingly health-conscious consumers. Though maize is demanded worldwide, the large suppliers in the United States and Canada make it difficult for small Haitian farmers to outcompete. This crop group, overall, also has a large number of potential value-added products, including meals, flour, bread, pastries, pasta, and even animal feed. Further, these crops are less susceptible to fermentation and rotting, and can be stored for weeks at room temperature, a vital quality given the lengthy processing and distribution times in the N-O. Processing facilities tend to be spread out across the Department . Based on the geospatial mapping of the value-chain components for the three groups, both processing for tubers and to a lesser extent maize occurs close to production sites. As seen in Figures 7 & 8, for maize production, Bassin Bleu and Jean-Rabel feed into processing centers in Jean-Rabel and Port-de Paix. Cassava has generally decentralized processing close to the production sites scattered throughout the Department with an estimated 428 household mills. These processing catchment areas are spread out across the Department, surrounding disaggregated production centers. However, the limited availability of infrastructure and material inputs like electricity and larger scale processing facilities hinder greater production capacity. For example, only 13 percent of processing land catchment areas are supported by electrical mini-grids and lack of electricity makes milling rely on manual processing, reducing efficiency. Distribution tends to take place across major roads or by air due to the limited port infrastructure. The Route Departementale (RD) 502 road connects crops to Port-de-Paix, whilst the RD 102 is significant for connecting processed cassava to the rest of the Department. Beyond the Department’s main highways, the quality of the road network is poor, and 90 percent of roads are unpaved. Market catchment areas are located in urban centers, that are better connected between each other and to other Departments. 16 Figure 7. Georeferenced Value Chain of Tubers and Cereals Source: GeoAdaptive (2021) Figure 8. Catchment Areas and Enabling Conditions of Tubers and Cereals Source: GeoAdaptive (2021) 17 Fruits Fruits have great potential for export promotion.