Corridor de Développement du Nord, Haïti Étude de Développement Urbain et de Changement Climatique

Northern Development Corridor, Haiti Urban Development and Climate Change Study November 2014 Environmental Resources Management 1776 I Street N.W. Washington D.C. 20006 www.erm.com TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ii LIST OF TABLES iv LIST OF APPENDICES v Acknowledgements vii 1. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background and ESCI 1 1.2 ESCI in Haiti 1 1.3 This Report 3 2. METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH 4 2.1 Methodology for the Risk and Urban Studies 4 2.2 Study Area 4 2.3 Building on Key Planning Efforts 5 3. BASELINE CONDITIONS 9 3.1 Current Study Area 9 3.2 Current and Historical Land Cover 13 3.3 Physical, Biological and Hydrological Baselines 16 3.4 Cultural Heritage 19 3.5 Urban, Commercial and Infrastructure 19 4. HAZARD AND RISK ASSESSMENT STUDIES 21 4.1 Prioritized Hazards 21 4.2 Methodology 22 4.3 Climate Change Projections 22 4.4 Hazard Profiles 24 4.5 Vulnerability Assessment 31 4.6 Loss Estimation 32 5. FUTURE GROWTH PROJECTIONS 35 5.1 Future Development Projects 35 5.2 Population and Demographics 35 5.3 Urban Area Needs 38 6. GEOSPATIAL MODEL 40 6.1 Introduction 40 6.2 The Geospatial Modelling Process 40 6.3 Modelling for the NDC 41 6.4 Restriction Factors Sub-Model 42 6.5 Attractions Factors Sub-Model 45 6.6 Future Development Projects Sub-Model 48 6.7 Suitability Analysis 48 7. DEVELOPMENT OF A SUSTAINABLE GROWTH SCENARIO 51 7.1 Land Suitability 51 7.2 Densification 53 7.3 Capacity of Existing Townships 55 7.4 Capacity in Trou-du-Nord 57 7.5 Capacity in Limonade 62 7.6 Capacity in Terrier Rouge 66 7.7 Capacity in Bord de Mer de Limonade 70 7.8 Capacity in Caracol 72 7.9 Capacity in Jacquezy 75 7.10 The Neighborhood of the Caracol Industrial Park 77 7.11 The Three Bays Marine Park 81 7.12 Risk Reduction Recommendations 84 8. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: A SMART GROWTH SCENARIO 91 8.1 Study Focus 91 8.2 Smart Development Scenario 91 8.3 Challenges to be Addressed 93 9. BIBLIOGRAPHY 95 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI i LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 - Area of study in Haiti’s geographic context 1 Figure 2 – Area of Study 4 Figure 3 - Composite of some of the mapping developed by the AIA Study (Illustrative Only) 6 Figure 4 - Extract of the CIAT Strategic Plan showing four poles of economic attraction that would result from the implementation of two new urban centres (Champin and Carrefour Chevry) 8 Figure 5 – Human settlements in the NDC 9 Figure 6 - Typical hamlet in the NDC area. (Paulette) 10 Figure 7 - Typical township in the NDC area (Terrier Rouge) 10 Figure 8 - Typical road-side settlements 11 Figure 9 - EKAM neighborhood development developed by USAID 11 Figure 10 - Footprint growth of urban settlements in the NDC 12 Figure 11 - Evolution of a housing development in the PIC area 13 Figure 12 - Land Use for 1986 and 2010 for the NDC 14 Figure 3.2-2 Land Use in 1986 14 Figure 14 - Urban footprint growth 1986-2010-2013 for key urban areas 15 Figure 15 - Urban intensities in 2010 16 Figure 16 - Main ecological system on the Northern Development Corridor 18 Figure 17 - Cultural heritage 19 Figure 18 - PGA probabilistic seismic hazard map for 10% probability in 50 years, i.e. 475-year return period 24 Figure 19 – Coastal flooding with climate change projections for a 50-year return period 26 Figure 20 – Key watersheds in the study area 27 Figure 21 - Inland flood hazard map with climate change 50 year return period 28 Figure 22 – Drought susceptible areas in Haiti as presented by NATHAT, 2012 29 Figure 23 – Monthly variation in water demand and availability (current conditions) 30 Figure 24 – Monthly variation in water demand and availability (projection for 2040 including climate change) 30 Figure 25 - Distribution of block boundaries in the study area 31 Figure 26 - Distribution and Exposure Values of Residential Buildings in the study area 32 Figure 27 - Example of vulnerability function for Coastal Flood Hazard for low rise masonry structure 33 Figure 28 - Risk Map: Average Annualized Loss for Earthquake Hazard, Residential 33 Figure 29 - Development projects 35 Figure 30 - Average annual growth of total population 37 Figure 31 - Urbanization rate in the municipalities of the study area 37 Figure 32 - Topics and elements considered to be restrictions for development 42 Figure 33 - Map of the restrictions sub-model: composite of maximum restrictions 44 Figure 34 - Topics and elements considered to be attractions for development 45 Figure 35 - Map of the attractions sub-model: composite of maximum attractiveness factors 47 Figure 36 - Attraction factors: Development Projects 48 Figure 37 - Land Suitability Model Based on Attractions and Restrictions 50 Figure 38 – Optimized land use map 52 Figure 39 - Examples of multi-dwelling and raised dwellings presented at the Zorange Expo 54 Figure 40 - Detail of elements analyzed for each one of the townships in the study area. 56 Figure 41 - Main land uses identified in the township of Trou-du-Nord. 57 Figure 42 - Trou du Nord - Areas selected for calculating the building density. 59 Figure 43 – Trou-du-Nord - Current land uses, areas for densification within the urban setting and proposed expansion areas. 61 Figure 44 - Main land uses identified in the township of Limonade 62 Figure 45 - Limonade - Areas selected for calculating the building density 63 Figure 46 - Limonade - Current land uses, areas for densification within the urban setting and proposed expansion areas. 65 Figure 47 - Main land uses identified in the township of Terrier Rouge 66 Figure 48 - Terrier Rouge - Areas selected for calculating the building density 67 Figure 49 - Terrier Rouge - Current land uses, areas for densification within the urban setting and proposed expansion areas 69 Figure 50 - Main land uses identified in the township of Bord de Mer de Limonade 70 Figure 51 - A pilotis - supported house developed for the Zorange Housing Expo 71 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI ii Figure 52 - Main land uses identified in the township of Caracol 72 Figure 53 - Main land uses identified in the township of Jacquezy 75 Figure 54 - The ‘neighborhood’ of the Caracol Industrial Park 78 Figure 55 - Areas that should be considered for future development 79 Figure 56 - Preferred locations for consolidating new urban settlements in the PIC area 80 Figure 57 - Creating a planned, integrated community with the PIC as pivot. 81 Figure 58 - Preemptive zoning classes proposed for the Three Bays Marine Park 83 Figure 59 - Framework for Relative Risk Evaluation 84 Figure 60 - Standardizing loss damage recurrence comparison for the study area 85 Figure 61 - Smart Development Scenario for Haiti's Northern Development Corridor 92 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI iii LIST OF TABLES Table 1 – Land use change observed between 1986 and 2010 in the study area 14 Table 2 – Haitian stakeholders 22 Table 3 – Summary of Climate Change Projections for the 2040s for Northern Haiti 23 Table 4 - Coastal flooding projections (including for climate change to 2040) 26 Table 5 – Inland river flooding projections (including for climate change to 2040) 28 Table 6 – Summary of water balance for the study area 30 Table 7 - Summary of Impacts and Loss Estimates by Hazard 34 Table 8 – Northern Region Population and Growth Projections (source AIA Study) 36 Table 9 - Place of residence of PIC workers 37 Table 10 - Projections of the population base - scenarios of slow growth 38 Table 11 - Projections of the population base - scenarios of High growth 39 Table 12 – Summary of the main restriction factors 43 Table 13 - Summary of the main attraction factors 46 Table 14 - Total area and current land use distribution in the township of Trou-du-Nord 58 Table 15 - Trou-du-Nord - Urban land uses inside and outside the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ available land. 58 Table 16 - Trou du Nord - Capacity for residential developments inside the urban setting and areas required for expansion in the 2040 fast growth scenario 59 Table 17 - Total area and current land use distribution in the township of Limonade 62 Table 18 - Limonade - Urban land uses inside and outside the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ available land. 63 Table 19 - Limonade - Capacity for residential developments inside the urban setting and areas required for expansion in the 2040 fast growth scenario 64 Table 20 - Total area and current land use distribution in the township of Terrier Rouge 66 Table 21 - Terrier Rouge - Urban land uses inside and outside the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ available land. 67 Table 22 - Terrier Rouge - Capacity for residential developments inside the urban setting and areas required for expansion in the 2040 fast growth scenario 68 Table 23 - Total area and current land use distribution in the township of Bord de Mer de Limonade 70 Table 24 - Bord de Mer de Limonade - Urban land uses inside and outside the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ available land. 71 Table 25 - Bord de Mer de Limonade - Capacity for residential developments inside the urban setting 72 Table 26 - Bord de Mer de Limonade - Distribution of urban land uses under a ‘good practice’ scenario. 73 Table 27 - Total area and current land use distribution in the township of Caracol 73 Table 28 - Caracol - Urban land uses inside and outside the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ available land. 73 Table 29 - Caracol - Capacity for residential developments inside the urban setting 74 Table 30 - Total area and current land use distribution in the township of Jacquezy 75 Table 31 - Jacquezy - Urban land uses inside and outside the high risk flood areas, and ‘true’ available land. 76 Table 32 - Jacquezy - Distribution of urban land uses under a ‘good practice’ scenario 76 Table 33 - Total areas of expansion that would be required to accomodate the housing demand expected by 2040 in the ‘fast’ population growth scenario 77 Table 34 - Comparison of Hazards for the study area 85 Table 35 – Summary of risk mitigation measures 90 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI iv LIST OF APPENDICES APPENDIX 1: Individual GIS Maps for the Ecological System APPENDIX 2: Individual GIS Maps for Urban and Infrastructure Development APPENDIX 3: Climate Studies by the University of West Indies APPENDIX 4: Hazard Profiles APPENDIX 5: Characteristics of Assets Exposed APPENDIX 6: Impacts and Losses APPENDIX 7: Restrictions Maps APPENDIX 8: Attractions Maps NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI v ACRONYMS NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report has been prepared by Environmental Resources Management on behalf of the Inter American Development Bank (the Bank)’s Emerging and Sustainable Cities Initiative (ESCI). The contributions and support of the following are acknowledged: - Ellis Juan and Horacio Terraza - Gines Suarez, Maricarmen Esquivel, Martin Kerres, Gisela Campillo, David Maleki - The team leader for the city as well as the colleagues who support him/her - Local counterparts who contributed (if individual names would make the list too long or if it proves difficult for other reasons, you can also thank institutions rather than individuals) NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI vii 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background and ESCI Cities and urban areas play a key role in the economy of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), both through opportunities generated (such as diffusion of expertize and innovation, concentration of specialized labor, and provision of educational, cultural, and recreational services), and the associated challenges such as poverty created by in migration and the increasing and often unsatisfied demands for urban and social services, decent housing conditions, employment and opportunities to generate income. Overcoming these challenges means that cities and urban areas require a comprehensive approach that enables them to develop sustainably and simultaneously improve their citizens’ quality of life. As a response to this situation and in light of continuing urbanization process in the LAC region, the Inter-American Development Bank (the Bank) launched its Emerging and Sustainable Cities Initiative (ESCI). The purpose of this Initiative is to contribute to the improvement of the quality of life in LAC’s cities in terms of environmental, urban, and fiscal sustainability. Through the ESCI, the Bank combines the expertise of its different sector departments in the formulation of comprehensive action plans designed to facilitate sustainable city planning. It leverages its capacities as the leading source of development financing for the region and applies its long experience in supporting the countries of LAC. The ESCI methodology aims to provide decision makers with the tools, data and initial frameworks for managing urban growth and territorial expansion. Formal and informal growth often leads to negative environmental, social, and economic impacts. Municipal policy makers usually lack adequate data and analysis to inform the design of policies that help promote growth in a sustainable way. In many cases, the implications for the municipal budget in terms of financing infrastructure development and operation costs have not been clarified in newly urbanized areas. Additionally, the environmental impacts of city growth are often not fully considered. Areas for conservation and aquifer recharge need to be Figure 1 - Area of study in Haiti’s geographic context protected or established and vulnerability to natural disaster and the effects of climate change reduced. Anticipatory planning can also help reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) as a major factor affecting climate change. 1.2 ESCI in Haiti Haiti’s Northern Development Corridor (NDC) (see Figure 1) presents a special case for the ESCI that requires flexibility in the implementation of the Area of Study NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 1 initiative’s methodology. In mid-2013, ESCI launched the implementation of an adapted version of its methodology in Haiti's Northern Corridor, currently home to approximately 500,000 people in the country’s Nord and Nord-Est departments. The NDC includes the communes closest to the Caracol Industrial Park (PIC), a flagship economic development project that may bring up to 25,000 new jobs to the region in the next few years, unlocking rapid demographic and urban growth and putting pressure on the region's services and resources. Bor de Mer de Limonade, Northern Haiti In partnership with strategic actors in Haiti, such as the Interministerial Committee for Territorial Planning (CIAT) and the Ministry of Economy and Finance, ESCI is working to help mitigate urban development impacts and catalyze interdisciplinary planning processes in Northern Haiti. ESCI’s ultimate goal for the NDC is: to deliver site- and city-specific plans for urban and infrastructure development in the municipalities closest to the PIC, namely Limonade, Trou-du-Nord, Terrier Rouge and Caracol. To achieve this goal, ESCI's tailored approach in Haiti involves the implementation of four baseline studies: 1. Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of Natural Hazards. The assessment focuses on four risk categories – flooding (inland and coastal); seismicity; hurricanes; and drought – and using newly developed digital terrain models, includes a probabilistic modeling of their impact on the region’s natural and urban landscapes and an estimation of impacts on existing infrastructure. 2. Urban Growth Study. This study presents multi horizon projections of urban and demographic growth with two basic scenarios (rapid versus slow) and their respective spatial distribution and impact on existing ecological and urban assets. The growth models include the potential spatial and growth impacts of new developments (e.g., port upgrades in Cap Haïtien) on the four communes’ area of influence. 3. Sustainable Mobility Plan. The plan will engage in unprecedented data collection exercises in Northern Haiti, including an origin and destination survey and counts. Based on this data, the Plan will include demand projections and draw recommendations for priority mobility projects, such as transport hub infrastructure, multimodal options, and improved services for PIC workers. The geographic focus is threefold: the PIC, the surrounding communes, and Route National 6. 4. Living Conditions Survey. There are considerable gaps in social and economic information, especially with regard to wages and labor, health and education levels, access to services, disaster preparedness, etc. In order NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 2 to develop planning strategies and instruments based on up-to-date and reliable information, ESCI will implement a complete household survey in the urban and rural areas of Limonade, Terrier Rouge, Trou-du-Nord, and Caracol, and gather basic social and demographic information as well as select information on public opinion. The ultimate goal is to develop a baseline of information about the households adjacent to the PIC. Building on the results, community feedback, and recommendations from each of these studies, ESCI will provide and socialize four site- and city-specific urban development plans for Limonade, Terrier Rouge, Trou-du-Nord and Caracol. The plans will also build on previous planning exercises by local partners such as the CIAT, which have sketched a regional vision for the NDC but require local specificity and detail and a more thorough consideration of future development alternatives. This dual approach – to develop a foundation for planning based on detailed studies, as well as to build on relevant, past efforts – will ensure that the four urban plans help guide Haitian stakeholders and their domestic and international partners in key urban development areas for the NDC. ESCI’s work will include proposed interventions at a pre investment level, so as to facilitate swift action according to local priorities. These proposals touch on areas such as mixed-use development strategies, design-driven conservation of landscape and resources, more resilient siting proposals for topics such as housing, and recommendations for transportation infrastructure at both the commune and regional levels, including mobility options to connect the PIC and its surrounding communes with new regional hubs such as an upgraded port in Cap-Haïtien. 1.3 This Report Environmental Resources Management, Inc (ERM) was engaged by ESCI to undertake the first two studies for the NDC: the Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of Natural Hazards (Risk Study) and Urban Growth Study (Urban Study). These two studies build upon the work and methodologies ERM has used and developed in conjunction with the ESCI team for similar studies in Cochabamba, Bolivia and Managua, Nicaragua. This report presents the consolidated findings of the study, and further details and information are contained in both the referenced appendices and supporting deliverables such as a GIS database. This report presents the results of the two studies (collectively referred to as the ESCI Growth Study) undertaken and importantly, the analysis, findings and recommendations have been combined to seek to address the complex question of where and how should urban development occur in the NDC given the different dynamics and forces that will shape population growth and migration in the area. This report is intended to provide planning tools and insights, and a building block upon which more prescriptive plans and planning policies can be developed, as well as to help guide decisions about accommodating and influencing future growth. Caracol Industrial Park NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 3 2. METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH 2.1 Methodology for the Risk and Urban Studies The two studies presented in this report (Risk and Urban Studies), while having clear and defined objectives individually, also have significant overlaps and connections to each other. The methodology used illustrates the combined approach taken that captures the key elements of the individual studies and also the respective connections: i. Development and understanding of current baseline conditions of current and known conditions in the study area using: • readily available information from key stakeholders, covering physical, biological, hydrological and urban systems; • Supplementing this information with defined studies and assessments comprising current and historical land cover assessments; Section 3 of this report presents the results of the baseline assessments. ii. The baseline is further supplemented by the hazard and risk assessment studies, and these are detailed in Section 4. iii. Identifying and defining future growth and development considerations including future population growth projections, future hazard and risk considerations when accounting for climate change projections and future development projects. This is presented in Section 5. iv. Geospatial land suitability modelling using the baseline conditions and future projections to identify land potentially suitable for development, which is presented in Section 6, and also includes stakeholder feedback as part of an engagement workshop held for the project. v. Development of a sustainable growth scenario for the study area, considering both slow and fast growth, presented in Section 7. vi. Presentation of key conclusions and recommendations, contained in Section 8. Figure 2 – Area of Study 2.2 Study Area The study area, which is shown in Figure 2, covers an area of 49,391 hectares and it is located along the Atlantic Ocean, in close proximity to the cities of Cap Haïtien to the West, and Fort Liberté to the East, partially covering the North and Northeast Departments. Geographically, the area of study is located at the heart of the territory known by Haitians as the Plains du Nord, the coastal plateau where the Massif du Nord mountainous chain meets the Atlantic Ocean. The delineation of the study area was defined by NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 4 consideration of the following factors: • The presence of the Route National (RN6), the Park Industriel du Caracol (PIC) and their areas of influence; • The proposed development projects being planned in the NDC; • The proposed upgrade and expansion of the Cap Haïtien seaport; • Watersheds, catchment areas and natural features; and • Municipal Boundaries. The study area comprises the key towns of Limonade, Trou-du-Nord, Caracol and Terrier Rouge. The study area boundaries have been defined based upon the following: • The main core of the study area is to be NDC and the PIC along RN6 given the socio economic development and growth being promoted as a result of the construction of this corridor; • The southern and eastern boundaries are defined by the water catchment zoning; • The west is defined by both the water catchment area of the Grande Rivière du Nord and the municipality of Limonade; and • The proposed Three Bays Marine Park will be taken as part of the study area and the Three Bays Marine Park will define the northern boundary, albeit the study has been limited to the coastline. In delineating the study area, it is acknowledged that the urban areas of Cap Haïtien, Fort Liberté and Ouanaminthe are important influencers throughout the NDC, and these factors have been considered during the study. 2.3 Building on Key Planning Efforts The NDC has been the subject of a number of important planning efforts conducted recently. This ESCI Growth Study does not seek to replace or supersede these other studies, but rather to build upon and contribute to them. The two key planning studies of interest are: • The Cap Haïtien-Ouanaminthe Development Corridor Regional Comprehensive Plan, AIA Legacy (referred to hereinafter as the AIA Study). This was published in December 2012, following a year of work carried out by the American Institute of Architects nonprofit foundation, AIA Legacy, with funds from the IDB and the United States Agency for International Development. The study was carried out in close interaction with the CIAT and the Technical Execution Unit of Economy and Finance. • The Plan d’Aménagement du Nord / Nord Est: Couloir Cap – Ouanaminthe, CIAT (the CIAT Strategic Plan). This strategic plan produced by the CIAT is aimed at developing the Haitian territory, and in this case the north, with greater regard for its natural resources, the risks and vulnerabilities it faces, and the opportunities it offers. It comprises two documents, the first of which is titled Haïti Demain (Haiti Tomorrow) and offers a country-wide framework; the second, titled La Boucle Artibonite (The Artibonite Loop), defines the space and functionality that ought to be developed in this area with some of the lowest natural risks of the country and numerous conditions that could turn it into a major economic pole. There are a number of areas in which the ESCI Growth Study can contribute to the AIA Study and the CIAT Strategic Plan, and further commentary on this is provided below. 2.3.1 AIA Study The AIA Study is divided in three volumes, comprising in the first volume a regional comprehensive plan; in the second urban growth plans for the different municipalities; and in the third are detailed analyses by sectors (or ‘focus areas’ as it refers to them), which add up to a cumulative impact assessment report that is the basis of both the regional comprehensive plan, and the urban growth area plans. Key aspects of this work include: • It presents a framework for how future development of the region should occur, including (i) the principles that should guide development in terms of natural resources, economic growth, infrastructure support and human development; (ii) the levels of plan implementation, that is, the regional, municipal and community levels, with clear indications regarding the roles and responsibilities of each; (iii) the mechanisms for implementation, including administrative measures such as zoning, and (iv) what the plan calls ‘supplemental’ measures, such as community compacts, anchor investments, and others. • Based on the diagnoses and analyses carried out at the regional and municipal levels, the plan reiterates or defines new, significant development projects at those scales, which should catalyze development around NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 5 Figure 3 - Composite of some of the mapping developed by the AIA Study (Illustrative Only) urban and immediate areas of influence, providing clear guidance on green and grey infrastructure, social services, road and transport, housing and other land uses. The plans include key data with regards to urban growth, based on population projections and housing and land demand. • The plan includes a proposal for a new development for 6,000 people, Caracol Nouvelle, that is shown as a model of a planned, mixed use and environmentally sound settlement. The plan suggests that this could serve as seed for additional settlement. Figure 3 provides a composite that illustrates some of the elements and plans considered by the AIA Study’s regional comprehensive plan and the results of aggregating them There are four specific contributions that this ESCI Growth Study work will bring in relation to the AIA Study. First, because the regional comprehensive plan is a high-level, multi sectorial, multi-institutional and multi-leveled instrument, it is not intended to provide detail on the spatial configuration of the region as a whole, other than that which would result from the process of settlement along RN6, and the local development processes of each municipality. The AIA Study represents the process of settlement along RN6 as occurring mostly along the south side themselves and regionally as a result of their aggregation. • In terms of spatial form and land transformation, the plan suggests an area of urban development the south side of RN6. The plan seems to indicate that this area would in reality be formed of two separate areas: one to the south east of Limonade, with limited or non-developed areas east and west; the other, between Trou-du-Nord, the PIC area and Terrier Rouge. • The plan then shifts to the local level, by means of offering local development plans for the eight municipalities that comprise their area of study (the whole North and Northeast Region). These local plans focus on their of the corridor and the local plans are focused on the urban areas only. This does not acknowledge development north of RN6 or the rural and intermediate areas where settlement may and is likely to happen. This ESCI study will be contributing in this regard by including information from recent surveys and aerial imagery from the area, analyzing what would the actual and projected growth patterns at the regional level be, and comparing NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 6 them with the results of the AIA regional comprehensive plan. This will include not only the main townships but also smaller villages or hamlets. Secondly, the ESCI Growth Study will enhance the AIA analysis of potential settlement areas by: • Introducing a larger number of restriction variables (15-20 layers versus the AIA’s 7 layers) as well as a larger number of attraction variables (5-10 versus 2). • Introduce greater resolution to the geography of some these restrictions and attractions. • Application of a geo-spatial model to identify the areas suitable for human settlement. This enhancement will enable recommendations to be provided that will either confirm, or suggest re orienting, of the results of the AIA regional comprehensive plan in terms of where should development occur. Third, the AIA Study implies that the core of the urbanization of the entire region is to occur within the NDC area, with measures to prevent spatial growth of Quartier Morin and Limonade in the west, and the implication that the stronger economic links between Ouanamithe and Fort Liberté in the east will reduce the pressure for urbanization beyond Terrier Rouge. It can however be expected that RN6 will continue to attract settlement along its edges, which could turn the area into a long, semi-urbanized strip, and better understanding the attraction factors for development, which this ESCI Growth Study seeks to do, will enable a better understanding of existing, trending and more ‘intelligent’ urbanization patterns that the region should exhibit as a whole. Lastly, each of the local development plans produced by the AIA Study offers a series of elements associated to the growth process. Of particular significance are the delineation of the existing urban boundary, an approximation to the extent of each municipality’s population growth, and the areas where this should be accommodated. With the results from the ESCI Growth Study modeling, an assessment of the location of these areas will be offered. 2.3.2 CIAT Strategic Plan The CIAT Strategic Plan comprises three elements, under a 2012 – 2030 time horizon: a regional diagnostic; a Plan d’Amenagement (layout plan), and a series of implementation measures. The regional diagnostic focuses on seven challenges as being the ones that have to be addressed, namely: 1. Accompany the growth in population 2. Structure the towns 3. Transform the economic structure 4. Modernize the agriculture 5. Enhance the heritage 6. Reduce the vulnerabilities 7. Ensure good, collective management The Plan d’Aménagement contains five components: an urban program; an economic program around major projects; a management strategy; a transport plan and forms of habitat and access to public services. The third part of the Strategic Plan focused on implementation, and provides three main elements, comprising a discussion on the governance and operational structure that ought to be set; a series of orientations or guidelines for elaborating urban development plans at the local level; and an investment plan. Important considerations from the CIAT Strategic Plan for the ESCI Growth Study include: • The plan reads as being supported and supportive on the results and the process of the AIA Study, and reiterates numerous elements of the diagnosis. • It offers a series of guidelines on the areas that ought to be developed at the local level and the criteria or principles that should be followed in each municipality. Because of its scope, it does not provide detailed approximations to the geography or the land use patterns to which many of its propositions should translate. • The plan does not appear to endorse the consolidation of an urban continuum along RN6; rather it highlights the need to urbanize the triangle within the Champin area as the fundamental intervention (in the NDC) that will ensure the balanced distribution of population in the region. • The plan is very clear in the pursuit to consolidate four polarities in the region, one of which would be the area covered by the present study (the Champin pole – see Figure 4). It also offers key elements that would identify it as such, like the new planned development, but also the proposed ‘urban’ corridor between Sainte Suzanne, Trou-du Nord, Champin and Caracol. This is a fundamental element not visible in the AIA Study, for it represents the only direct link between the mountain areas of the Massif du NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 7 Nord, the plateau and the coast, between Cap Haïtien and Ouanaminthe. There are four specific contributions that ESCI Growth Study brings to this CIAT plan. First, an updated demographic analysis has been performed that yields more detailed and disaggregated information useful to offer a better approximation of where would human settlement likely grow, and the extent of this. Secondly more refined approximations will be offered to the geography of the elements that are fundamental to the economy: agricultural milieus, economic development projects, protected areas, etc. Third, the CIAT Strategic Plan’s vision will be embraced, such as a network of services that complement each other, as opposed to compete against each other; and acknowledging the geographical areas that should be protected for their potential economic value. Finally, alternative locations for new planned settlements will be identified should the suitability analysis yield areas more attractive as a result of the modeling. Figure 4 - Extract of the CIAT Strategic Plan showing four poles of economic attraction that would result from the implementation of two new urban centres (Champin and Carrefour Chevry) NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 8 3. BASELINE CONDITIONS 3.1 Current Study Area The proposed study area presented in Figure 2 is defined as follows: • The main core of the study area comprises the west-east corridor along RN6; • The Trou-du-Nord catchment boundary defines the southern extent of the study area, and the coastline and associated bays along the northern coast naturally define the northern extent of the study area; • The easterly boundary is partly defined by the Trou-du-Nord watershed and in the north east by the Terrier Rouge and Fort Liberté municipal boundary; and • To the west, the study is defined by the Limonade and Quartier Morin municipal boundary. In defining the study area, the urban areas of Cap Haïtien, Forte Liberté and Ouanaminthe are recognized as important influencers and have been fully considered. The overall NDC area can be characterized as rural because of the traditional land use patterns that it exhibits, including large plantations of sisal and plantain, and traditional small to medium scale farming for production of fruits, plantain, livestock, Figure 5 – Human settlements in the NDC Map source: From geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. cassava, vegetables and others. The agglomeration patterns that have emerged are townships, hamlets, farms, ‘linear’ settlements along roads, and planned settlements, which are presented in Figure 5. 3.1.1 Townships In the NDC, there are three main townships: Limonade, Trou-du-Nord and Terrier Rouge, representing a first tier of settlements. They are founded at regional crossroads, and their urban structure is largely formed by a town center with the main administrative and religious buildings, followed by an ‘organic’ grid of roads that configure blocks of irregular shape and dimensions. These tend to be between a quarter and a third of a hectare in area. Inside these blocks there is a parcel structure that in general terms is half built, with the remaining area being used as solarium and orchard. Consequently, the idea of a town in the NDC is NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 9 largely that of an agglomeration of single-family dwellings with a yard. The township is surrounded by countryside of medium sized farms, whose produce is generally sold or ex-changed at the township’s market. In terms of land use, the townships are almost entirely configured as mixed use, with buildings serving as home as well as office, store, training center, phone booth, restaurant, etc. An example is shown in Figure 7, which shows Terrier Rouge. 3.1.2 Hamlets Hamlets are the second tier settlements present in the NDC, and include places such as Caracol, Bor de Mer de Limonade, Phaeton, Paulette and Jacquezy. These are normally located along secondary or tertiary roads, and they exhibit a much simpler structure, where the main road widens and becomes the main center, in which the churches, playfields, administrative posts and other service related buildings are located. This leads into a network of a few streets or paths that reach the surrounding areas, some of which are used for agriculture. An example is shown in Figure 6, which shows the hamlet of Paulette. In Paulette and in other cases, hamlets are also places were international relief organizations have developed housing programs. In this case, a difference is clearly visible between the ‘organic’ grid of the ‘natural’ town and the orthogonal grid of the planned settlement. 3.1.3 Farms In the NDC there are numerous types of farming operations, from the small one beside the road that houses two to three generations of a family, and is exploited for family subsistence and market exchanges of the surplus; to large or very large estates exploited for sisal, plantain, citrus, cane and other crops. The presence of small farmers along the internal roads in the NDC is partly as a result of the fact that they used (or continue) to be employed in the large plantations, whose owners have given them small parcels to settle. Other, medium parcels and farms are the result of subdivision of the large plantations over the years. 3.1.4 Settlement along roads As a consequence of population growth and the subdivision of the original farms along the road, linear areas of agglomeration begin to form, also visible in Figure 8. In some cases because of their Figure 7 - Typical township in the NDC area (Terrier Rouge) Figure 6 - Typical hamlet in the NDC area. (Paulette) NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 10 population size, they become recognized as ‘urban’ by the IHSI. 3.1.5 Planned settlements The NDC has also been the subject of numerous efforts by international relief and cooperation organizations to provide Haitians with shelter and sanitation, including Food For the Poor, the Red Cross, CARE, OXFAM, CHF and others. USAID has been intensely involved, having pledged after the 2010 disaster to build 3,000 homes as part of the coordinated efforts that brought about the PIC, the completion of RN6, the upgrading or reconstruction of several water and sanitation facilities and other projects of similar nature. The EKAM project is the largest residential development in the study area and was developed by USAID (see Figure 9). The project is located equidistant to the PIC, the University of Limonade and the township of Trou-du-Nord. It includes 750 homes, a community center, shopping areas and Figure 8 - Typical road-side settlements Figure 9 - EKAM neighborhood development developed by USAID recreational spaces, to be placed on a 47 hectare site approximately. Another project for approximately 135 homes is to be built on an 8.5 hectare site that is located just east of the PIC and the crossing known as Jesús. This project is immediately flanked to the west by a customs facility, and to the east by a farm of approximately twice the size that is being exploited with sisal that is then sent to a factory located inside the CIP. This sisal exploitation is expected to grow to a 5,000 hectare operation that is described later in this document. NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 11 3.1.6 Growth of settlements Using remote sensing analysis of two LANDSAT satellite images (1986 and 2010), and through the use of a 2013 high resolution image collected and used by the IDB to create a digital terrain model for the NDC (see Section 3.2 for more details on the methodology), it has been possible to assess the changes and growth of the urban footprints in the study area. As illustrated in Figure 10, in the year 1985 the main settlements in the NDC were Bord de Mer de Limonade Caracol JacquezyPhaeton Limonade, Trou-du-Nord, Terrier Rouge, Caracol, Paulette and Phaeton. At the crossing of the road that connects RN6 with Bord de Mer de Limonade was also a small settlement. Twenty five years later, in 2010, the coastal towns of Bord de Mer de Limonade Paulette Terrier Rouge Trou-du-Nord Figure 10 - Footprint growth of urban settlements in the NDC Map source: From geographic information layers by AIA (2012), CIAT (2012), CNGIS (c.2012), IADB (c.2013), NATHAT (2010), USAID-OFDA (c.2012), OSM (2013), OCHA (c.2010), PDNA (2010) and DTM (2013). Georeferencing, digitizing and remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986, 2010 and 2013. NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 12 Limonade, Caracol and Jacquezy had seen the had seen the largest growth. Bord de Mer de Limonade passed from an almost invisible concentrated area at the regional scale, to an area with the largest footprint of all three. Caracol saw its area almost tripled, and Jacquezy had also grown dramatically. The inland townships, however, saw a more normal expansion, in which Terrier Rouge exhibited the largest expansion with 2.5 times the area of 1985, followed by Trou-du-Nord with an expansion of double the size of 1985, and Limonade, with a slightly lower expansion. By 2013, what clearly appeared in the map as agglomerations were the series of linear settlements along RN6 and some of the secondary roads connecting the different townships. The settlements along the roads connecting RN6 to Bord de Mer de Limonade as well as the road connecting Limonade with the township of Campegne to its South appear to be the more defined ones. Figure 11 - Evolution of a housing development in the PIC area Presently, this linear pattern seems to be the one acquiring more speed. Figure 11 exhibits a series of images from the area along RN6, in the vicinities of the intersection of this thoroughfare with the road that connects to Caracol and serves as one of two access points to the PIC. The series begins in 2007 and ends in 2013, passing by images from 2009 and 2010. The area bound by a continuous yellow line is where a piecemeal process of settlement has occurred, likely with the support of an international organization. The settlement is currently comprised of a total 37 homes and what appears to be a small communal or commercial facility. The area was rural up until 2007 and during 2008-2009 settlement appeared, which is also when the construction of RN6 took place. According to the images, the settlement began with approximately 13 homes in 2009, jumping to 27 homes in 2010 and 37 in 2013. The settlement is likely to continue growing, and if a measure of the intensity with which it has grown from its inception was applied, the result in 20 years would be a settlement of anywhere between 70 housing units if it grew conservatively to 160 dwellings if it grew with intensity. 3.2 Current and Historical Land Cover A remote sensing analysis of two LANDSAT satellite images (1986 and 2010) covering a span of 24 years was performed to analyze eleven land cover classes for urban, rural and natural areas over time. Final land cover classification was checked for quality assurance and quality control issues (QA/QC) through a site survey of the area of study, a process known as ground-truthing. Data collected in the field was used to calibrate the training regions in the most recent supervised classification and inform the execution of all other supervised classifications on the historical imagery. The results provide an understanding of the evolution of land cover in the northern development corridor from 1986-2010. As Figure 12 demonstrates, the urban areas and corridors have grown noticeably. In 1986, the urban footprint of the NDC only occupied 0.4 percent of the total area of study expanding to 7.7 percent of the total area in 2013. In addition, the non-urban lands appear to illustrate a significant deterioration, with a reduction in natural and agricultural lands. NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 13 In terms of green infrastructure, the NDC experienced its significant deforestation before the period of analysis and a slow, but sustained deterioration of its hydric system. The area has lost 5.030 hectares of cultivated areas despite having vast extensions agrological classified soils and in 2010 only half of the area suited for agriculture (6,315 hectares) was utilized. Bord de Mer de Limonade Limonade Caracol 1986 1986 JacquezyPhaeton Paulette Terrier Rouge As shown in Table 1, the most important land use changes occurred in rangeland increasing by 6,647 hectares, cultivated areas decreasing by 5,030 hectares and barren land decreasing by 2,158 hectares. Besides rangeland, urban areas have increased significantly: medium intensity 55 hectares, low intensity 363 hectares and open space 530 hectares associated to road development. In contrast, the hydric system lost 49 hectares of water bodies and 257 hectares of forested wetlands associated to deforestation, erosion, flooding and pollution or the rivers, wetlands, mangroves and riparian forests. Bord de Mer de Limonade Trou-du-Nord Caracol JacquezyPhaeton 2010 Limonade Table 1 – Land use change observed between 1986 and 2010 in the study area Paulette Terrier Rouge Trou-du-Nord Land Cover 1986 2010 % Change Urban High density 0 0 0 Medium density 67 123 83.6% Low Density 109 472 333.0% Open space 0 0 0 Vegetation Agriculture/cultivated 17,661 12,630 -28.5% Rangeland 9,609 16,257 69.2% Scrub 9,010 8,923 -1.0% Forest 0 0 0 Water Features Water body 951 902 -5.2% Forested wetland 4,318 4,061 -6.0% Emergent wetland 1 2 100.0% Figure 12 - Land Use for 1986 and 2010 for the NDC Source: Remote sensing analysis from satellite imagery 1986 and 2010 NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR, HAITI 14 3.2.1 Urban Areas Urban land use was assessed from the 1986 and 2010 LANDSAT analyses described above, and a third reference point was also obtained from a high resolution image collected and used by the IDB to create a digital terrain model for the area. Urban land use was classified in four categories, based on imperviousness levels (the area that ceases to be permeable due to construction non-absorbing surfaces such as buildings and roads): developed high intensity, developed medium intensity, developed low intensity and developed open space. The first three are occupied by buildings and the fourth one is composed by parks, roads, cemeteries and infrastructure inside the urban footprint or connecting discontinuous urban areas, such as the RN6. An average urban density of 78.09 inhabitants per hectare was reached in 2012 and surpassed the 100 Inhabitants per hectare in Caracol and Limonade, however this analysis of imperviousness levels did not show areas classified as developed high intensity. Developed areas of medium and low intensity increased significantly during the 24 years of the analysis and the urban footprint of the NDC grew more than three times its size between 1986 and 2010, while open space, basically road infrastructure, doubled during the same period. Comparing the 1986 and 2010 urban footprints shows that the NDC is mainly developed with lower levels of density, predominantly compact built environment concentrated around traditional settlements and more recently along roads. hectares in October 2013. Between 1986 and 2010 the urban footprint grew 419 Hectares at 17 hectares per year) in contrast with a 340 Ha between January 2010 and October 2013, at a rate of 113 Has per year. Figure 12 illustrates the urban growth between 1986 and 2013, and Figure 14 focuses in on key areas of the NDC. Figure 15 provides the urban intensities (in terms of density of development) as assessed in 2010.