Évaluation d'Impact Cumulatif pour le Développement Régional dans le Corridor Urbain Cap-Haïtien à Ouanaminthe

CUMULATIVE IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE CAP-HAÏTIEN TO OUANAMINTHE URBAN CORRIDOR FINAL DRAFT Linda Shi, Alex Bellande, Juan Pablo Bocarejo, Veronique Dorner, Erica Gees, Fritz A. Jean, Glenn Smucker, Beatriz del Cueto, Agamemnon G. Pantel, Jeff Allen, Kimberly Miller, Bruce Laird, Michele Adams, Altje Hoekstra, Kate Evasic, Molly Julian, Mike Hickman, Drury MacKenzie and Scott Sklar August 26, 2012 CONFIDENTIAL AIA Legacy American Institute of Architects Inter-American Development Bank ATN/OC-12751-HA Team Leader - Arcindo Santos USAID / OTI Project Coordinator - Nicole Widdershiem TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................. 1 I. GOALS AND OBJECTIVES ....................................................................................................................... 8 II. SCOPE ...................................................................................................................................................... 8 III. PROCESS AND METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................................... 9 PART 1: PERSPECTIVES DE DEVELOPPEMENT ÉCONOMIQUE DU NORD ...................................... 11 1.1 Contexte ........................................................................................................................................ 11 1.2 Situation Actuelle de la Région ..................................................................................................... 12 1.3 Les Grands Projets Déclencheurs du Nord et Leurs Effets Induits .............................................. 14 PART 2. DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS AND DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS .......................... 24 2.1 Current Population Estimates ....................................................................................................... 24 2.2 Socio-Economic Characteristics ................................................................................................... 26 2.3 Employment Generation ............................................................................................................... 28 2.4 Projected Population ..................................................................................................................... 28 PART 3: VALUED ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS.................................................................................... 31 3.1 VES 1: Estuarine, Coastal and Marine Systems .......................................................................... 32 3.2 VES 2: Surface and Ground Water Resources ............................................................................ 34 3.3 VES 3: Highland Watershed and Riparian Habitat ....................................................................... 37 3.4 VES 4: Air Quality ......................................................................................................................... 39 3.5 VES 5: Soils and Agriculturally Valuable Areas ............................................................................ 40 3.6 VES 6: Culturally Valuable Areas ................................................................................................. 42 PART 4: LAND USE CONSIDERATIONS ................................................................................................. 44 4.1 Natural Hazards and Risks ........................................................................................................... 44 4.1.1 Earthquakes, Tsunamis and Liquefaction Risks ................................................................. 44 4.1.2 Flood Risks .......................................................................................................................... 47 4.1.3 Drought Risks ...................................................................................................................... 49 4.1.4 Landslides, Mud Flows and Erosion Risks .......................................................................... 51 4.1.5 Projected Climate Change Impacts ..................................................................................... 51 4.1.6 Integrated Map of Natural Hazard Risks ............................................................................. 52 4.1.7 Map of Land Development Suitability .................................................................................. 53 4.2 Land Consumption Requirements ................................................................................................ 55 PART 5. SECTORAL RESOURCE DEMANDS AND IMPACTS .............................................................. 59 5.1 Transportation Infrastructure......................................................................................................... 59 5.2 Water Supply ................................................................................................................................ 63 5.3 Sanitation, Wastewater and Stormwater ...................................................................................... 66 5.4 Solid Waste Generation ................................................................................................................ 70 5.5 Energy Consumption .................................................................................................................... 78 PART 6: CUMULATIVE IMPACT ASSESSMENT ..................................................................................... 82 6.1 VES 1: Estuarine, Coastal and Marine Systems .......................................................................... 82 6.2 VES 2: Surface and Ground Water Resources ............................................................................ 83 6.3 VES 3: Highland Watershed and Riparian Habitat ....................................................................... 84 6.4 VES 4: Air Quality ......................................................................................................................... 86 6.5 VES 5: Soils and Agricultural Valuable Areas .............................................................................. 86 6.6 VES 6: Culturally Valuable Areas ................................................................................................. 87 6.7 Matrix of Impacts and Table of Monitoring Indicators ................................................................... 87 PART 7: PROPOSED MANAGEMENT STRUCTURES AND STRATEGIES ........................................... 92 7.1 Proposed Management Structures ............................................................................................... 93 7.2 Management Strategies for VES 1: Estuarine, Coastal and Marine Systems .............................. 98 7.3 Management Strategies for VES 2: Surface and Ground Water Resources ................................ 99 7.4 Management Strategies for VES 3: Highland Watersheds and Riparian Systems .................... 101 7.5 Management Strategies for VES 4: Air Quality........................................................................... 101 7.6 Management Strategies for VES 5: Soils and Agriculturally Valuable Areas ............................. 102 7.7 Management Strategies for VES 6: Culturally Valuable Areas ................................................... 103 7.8 Disaster Mitigation and Response .............................................................................................. 105 7.9 Economic Policies to Promote Implementation .......................................................................... 105 Annex 1: Summary Analysis of Governance Issues ................................................................................. 116 Annex 2: Actions Prioritaires pour une Intensification de la Production Agricole et pour la Conservation des Sols et des Eaux .......................................................................................................... 120 Annex 3: Proposed Transportation Plan ................................................................................................... 123 Annex 4: Flood and Stormwater Management Recommendations .......................................................... 127 Annex 5: Water Supply Recommendations .............................................................................................. 131 Annex 6: Sanitation and Wastewater Recommendations ......................................................................... 133 Annex 7: Solid Waste Recommendations ................................................................................................. 135 Annex 8: Recommendations to Extend Access to Energy and Electricity ................................................ 140 Annex 9: Puerto Rico: Case Study for Cultural Patrimony Management ................................................. 142 BIBLIOGRAPHY ....................................................................................................................................... 143 LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Département du Nord-Est Budget Consolidé 2009-2010 .............................................................. 12 Table 2 Recettes Douanières 2010-2011 en Gds ...................................................................................... 14 Table 3 Summary of Major Projects in the Region ..................................................................................... 17 Table 4 Les Communes du Couloir et les Activités Economiques Induites ................................................ 22 Table 5 Tailles des Ménages Urbains (non-Metropolitaine) en 2007 ......................................................... 24 Table 6 Estimated Population in the Corridor in 2009 by Département ..................................................... 25 Table 7 Estimated Population in the Corridor in 2009 by Commune .......................................................... 25 Table 8 Total Population in Cap-Haïtien - Ouanaminthe Corridor in 2009 ................................................. 26 Table 9 Caracol Income Profile ................................................................................................................... 27 Table 10 Limonade Income Profile ............................................................................................................. 27 Table 11 Income Profile of Agricultural and Commercial Activities ............................................................ 27 Table 12 National Urban Average Monthly Income en Gds ....................................................................... 28 Table 13 Baseline Scenario Population and Household Growth ................................................................ 30 Table 14 Number of Households in Baseline and High Growth Scenarios ................................................ 30 Table 15 Nord-Est Towns' Degree of Risk to Five Major Natural Hazards ................................................. 52 Table 16 Direction of Growth by Town ........................................................................................................ 53 Table 17 Land Requirements in 2030 under Baseline Scenario ................................................................ 57 Table 18 Land Requirements in 2030 under High Growth Scenarios ........................................................ 57 Table 19 Comparison of Current and Future Land Availability by City ....................................................... 58 Table 20 Projected Future Access to and Demand for Municipal Water .................................................... 65 Table 21 Access to Sanitation in the Corridor ............................................................................................. 68 Table 22 Projected Sanitation Access and Wastewater Generation .......................................................... 69 Table 23 Composition of Municipal Waste in the Region ........................................................................... 71 Table 24 Solid Waste Disposal Strategies in Cap-Haïtien and Surrounding Areas ................................... 72 Table 25 Current and Future Municipal Waste Generation (Baseline Scenario) ........................................ 75 Table 26 Current and Future Total Waste Generation (Baseline Scenario) ............................................... 75 Table 27 Current and Future Municipal Waste Generation (High Growth Scenario) ................................. 76 Table 28 Current and Future Total Waste Generation (High Growth Scenario) ......................................... 76 Table 29 Estimated Air Pollution Generated by Open Burning ................................................................... 77 Table 30 Projected Household Energy Sources ......................................................................................... 79 Table 31 Projected Household Charcoal Consumption .............................................................................. 80 Table 32 Irrigation Needs ............................................................................................................................ 85 Table 33 Matrix of Cumulative Impacts on the Environment (High Growth Scenario without Mitigation) .. 88 Table 34 List of Proposed Key Monitoring and Evaluations Indicators ...................................................... 89 Table 35 Cumulative Environmental Impacts and Mitigation Strategies by VES ..................................... 109 Table 36 Les Programmes du Plan de Transport ..................................................................................... 123 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 General Extent of Urban Corridor of Study ..................................................................................... 9 Figure 2 Map of Existing and Potential Major Investments in the Region .................................................. 16 Figure 3 Population Pyramid for Le Nord and Nord-Est (2005-2006) ........................................................ 25 Figure 4 Growth of Urban Population along the Project Corridor (2009-2030) .......................................... 29 Figure 5 Population Projection Growth Rates in Baseline and High Growth Scenarios ............................. 29 Figure 6 Map of Caribbean Islands Biodiversity Hotspot ............................................................................ 31 Figure 7 Boundaries of the Former Sisal Plantations in the Region (as of 1960) ....................................... 33 Figure 8 Map of the Proposed Parc de Trois Baie ...................................................................................... 34 Figure 9 Rainfall Zones in the Region ......................................................................................................... 35 Figure 10 Water Resources in Le Nord and Nord-Est .............................................................................. 35 Figure 11 Map of the Corridor's Watersheds, Rivers and Lakes ................................................................ 37 Figure 12 Geology of the Region ................................................................................................................ 38 Figure 13 Regional Stream Sediment Sampling Results for Copper ......................................................... 39 Figure 14 Map of Corridor's Soil Potential .................................................................................................. 41 Figure 15 Regional Map of Cultural and Natural Heritage Sites ................................................................. 42 Figure 16 Map of Coastal Septentrional Fault ............................................................................................ 44 Figure 17 Map of Inland Earthquake Faults and Seismic Risk ................................................................... 45 Figure 18 Map of Tsunami Risk in the Region ............................................................................................ 46 Figure 19 Map of Liquefaction Risk in the Region ...................................................................................... 46 Figure 20 Map of Cyclone Paths and Risks ................................................................................................ 47 Figure 21 Map of Maximum Likelihood of Return of 50-Year Hurricanes ................................................... 47 Figure 22 Map of Regional Flood Risk (CNIGS) ......................................................................................... 48 Figure 23 Map of Regional Flood Risk (NATHAT) ...................................................................................... 48 Figure 24 Map of Regional Drought Risk .................................................................................................... 50 Figure 25 Map of Region’s Landslide and Mudflow Risks .......................................................................... 51 Figure 26 Integrated Map of the Region’s Natural Hazard Risks ............................................................... 52 Figure 27 Overlay Map of Best Agricultural Soils and the Parc de 3 Baies ................................................ 54 Figure 28 Overlay Map of Natural Hazard Risks, Best Agricultural Soils and the Parc de 3 Baies ........... 54 Figure 29 Regional Map of Areas Unsuitable for Construction ................................................................... 55 Figure 30 Bathymetry of the Baie de Fort Liberté ....................................................................................... 60 Figure 31 - Distribution Modale des Déplacements Régionaux .................................................................. 61 Figure 32 Access to Drinking Water in Corridor (2005-2006) ..................................................................... 64 Figure 33 Access to Non-Drinking Water in the Corridor (2005-2006) ....................................................... 64 Figure 34 Access to Sanitation in the Corridor (2005-2006) ....................................................................... 67 Figure 35 Likely Open Dumps as Identified in Aerial Photos ...................................................................... 73 Figure 36 National Household Energy Consumption (2003) ...................................................................... 78 Figure 37 Household Energy Sources for Le Nord and Nord-Est ............................................................... 78 Figure 38 Drawing of Mountain Road Section .......................................................................................... 128 Figure 39 Drawing of Highway Section ..................................................................................................... 128 Figure 40 Drawing of Town Gateway Section ........................................................................................... 129 Figure 41 Drawing of Urban Street Section .............................................................................................. 129 Figure 42 New Development Street Section ............................................................................................. 129 Figure 43 Drawing of On-Site Water Management ................................................................................... 130 ACRONYMS AIA American Institute of Architects ANAP National Agency for Protected Areas CBC Caribbean Biological Corridor CIA Cumulative Impact Assessment CIAT Comité Interministériel d’Aménagement du Territoire CNIGS Centre National de L’Information Géo-Spatiale CODEVI Free Trade Zone in Ouanaminthe DALYs Disability-Adjusted Life Year DINEPA Direction Nationale de l'Eau Potable et de l'Assainissement EEEI Enquete de Emploi et Economie Informelle EDH Électricité d’Haïti EKAM USAID-funded housing site in Caracol EMMUS-IV Enquete de Mortalite, Morbidite, et Utilisation des Services (2005-2006) EPA Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.) GAFSP Global Agriculture and Food Security Program FAO UN Food and Agriculture Organization FTFCN Feed the Future for the Corridor of Northern Haiti GEF Global Environment Facility GOH Government of Haiti IDB Inter-American Development Bank LICs Low-Income Countries LACs Latin American Countries MARNDR Ministère de l’Agriculture, des Ressources Naturelles et du Développement Rural MDE Ministère de L’Environnement MICT Ministère de l'Intérieur et des Collectivités Territoriales MPCE Ministère de la Planification et de la Coopération Externe MTPTC Ministère des Travaux Publiques, Transports, Énergie et Communications NATHAT Analysis of Multiple Natural Hazards in Haiti Report NGO Non-governmental organization PAE Plans d’Aménagement et d’Extension PAP Port-au-Prince PAR Plan d’Aménagement Régional PIC Parc Industriel de Caracol PMDN Programme de Mitigation des Desastres Natureles SAE-A South Korean Textile Company TOR Terms of Reference UE Union Européenne UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNICEF United Nations Children's Fund URHC Université Roi Henry Christophe USAID United States Agency for International Development USG U.S. Government VES Valued environmental systems WHO World Health Organization EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In an effort to strengthen northern Haiti as a development zone, the Government of Haiti, together with international agencies and donor countries, has made or will make significant investments along the northern coastline from the city of Cap-Haïtien to Ouanaminthe. As detailed in Part 1 of the report on the economic drivers of the region’s growth (see Table 3), the most important – and potentially controversial – of these include the Parc Industrial de Caracol (PIC), a port, exploratory mines and 5,000 units of housing, as well as a new 10,000-student university, an upgraded highway, ongoing solid waste, water and sanitation master plans and investments, and regional agricultural programs. In trying to improve local incomes and well being, some major projects may nevertheless endanger the region’s sensitive and unique ecological, historical and agricultural resources and undermine development gains. Consequently, the GOH, IDB and USAID have asked the American Institute of Architects (AIA) to develop a Regional Management Plan (PAR) for the Cap-Haïtien to Ouanaminthe urban corridor and Local Growth Plans (PAEs) for eight towns along National Route 6 (not including Cap-Haïtien or Ouanaminthe) to help anticipate development needs and mitigate potential environmental and social impacts. As part of this planning process, the AIA has been asked to develop a cumulative environmental impact assessment (CIA) to examine the synergies and interactions of these impacts on the region expected from the economic growth. The goal of the CIA is to inform AIA’s regional and local plans by identifying: cumulative impacts and interactions of existing and proposed developments, mitigation measures to control, reduce or avoid such impacts, and management strategies to guide future development in favor of sustainable outcomes. To help assess future impacts, the CIA created two development scenarios, elaborated in Part 2 of the report. The baseline scenario envisions slowing rates of urbanization, with overall urban population rising by 55% to 599,000 in 2030 (64% of residents in metropolitan Cap-Haïtien and 13% in the towns closest to the PIC). The high-growth scenario projects elevated rates of urbanization, particularly in the small towns around the PIC with low existing populations. The high-growth scenario results in populations rising by 115% from 2009 levels, totaling 832,000 by 2030, or a 39% surge above the overall baseline condition and a 70% increase from the baseline population in the towns closest to the PIC. As these projections and the sectoral resource demand calculations are not exact, they can only serve to convey the order of magnitude of future impacts. Future impacts presented by economic and population growth are evaluated in light of six major valued environmental systems (VES), presented in Part 3 of the report: 1. Estuarine, Coastal and Marine Resources 2. Surface and Ground Water Resources 3. Highland Watersheds and Riparian Forests 4. Air Quality 5. Soils and Agriculturally Valuable Areas 6. Culturally Valuable Areas The CIA examines the region’s land use issues in Part 4, including the natural hazard risks, future land use demands and their spatial implications. Additional physical infrastructure needs to support demands for transport, water and energy and to manage waste stream creation in terms of air pollution, wastewater and solid waste are elaborated in Part 5. The cumulative impact assessment and proposed monitoring indicators are presented in Part 6, and management strategies are summarized in Part 7 of the report and in the Annexes. Two comments should be made upfront. First, any assessment of development impacts must recognize that many of the region’s natural resources are already degraded and that environmental management is almost entirely absent. Most of the 387,000 residents living in the corridor’s towns and cities lack water, sanitation, wastewater treatment, affordable energy besides charcoal, and solid waste collection and disposal systems. As a result, they impose considerable pressures on the region’s resource base. Present and historic settlements have led to the destruction of mangroves and native forests all along the coast; overfishing; surface water contamination; significant forest clearance that has left little remaining natural habitat; rivers clogged with solid and liquid waste; and litter conveyed by rivers and streams to estuaries and marine environments. 1 Second, demographic pressure on the region will lead to significant urban population growth. Even without the major investments such as the PIC and the port, the region’s population will increase by 213,000 people by 2030, adding to existing unmet needs for environmental resources and management. Under any scenario – no growth, natural increase or high growth – immense investments in infrastructure, human resources and management and governance capacity are needed in the region to transform the current “vicious” cycle of poverty and environmental degradation into a cycle where human well-being and ecological sustainability are mutually reinforcing. The following sections summarize the significant environmental concerns for the six major valued environmental systems (VES) due to continued urbanization in the Cap-Haïtien-Ouanaminthe corridor, together with proposed management strategies. * * * * * 1. Estuarine, Coastal and Marine Resources The PIC and surrounding urban communities will significantly elevate pollutant loading in the Baie of Caracol. In the past, the Baie of Caracol was relatively isolated due to the small size of upstream communities, which afforded the ecosystem some measure of protection. The proposed investments will make the Caracol-Trou du-Nord-Limonade-Terrier Rouge region a new urban node on the corridor. By the end of Phase 1 (year 7) alone, the PIC is expected to generate 4,500 m3 of wastewater per day. In addition, even though the AIA plans will emphasize accommodating the influx of people to the region further upstream and away from the Baie’s sensitive environment, the liquid and solid waste of Trou du Nord, Limonade, Terrier Rouge and EKAM will still eventually drain into the Baie of Caracol. Under the high-growth scenario, the upstream communities would generate an additional 2 million m3 of greywater, 6,000 m3 of sludge, and 24,000 tons of solid waste per year above the baseline scenario in 2030. Mining, after a decades-long hiatus, is under exploration again in the region, with the Majescor property between Terrier Rouge and Trou du Nord potentially leading to major impacts in the future. Consequently, the role that the Caracol estuary and its connected rivers play as a refuge for the entire northern coastline could suffer increased environmental threats and become endangered. Degradation of the coastal environmental would also threaten the livelihoods of coastal communities dependent on fishing and salt basin. Contamination of the salt would have wide-ranging health repercussions for the five departments where the salt is sold (Nord, Nord-Est, Nord-Ouest, Centre, Artibonite). The IDB and USAID have repeatedly affirmed that they are committed to treating industrial wastewater to secondary levels. Experience has shown, however, that wastewater facilities in low-income countries are often poorly maintained over time. Furthermore, the decisions to date regarding the PIC’s environmental issues, such as the lack of an environmental assessment prior to final site selection, the lack of precautions in elevating new factories above the flood line and late modifications to wastewater management, have detracted from the PIC’s public image and its claims to meet environmental safeguards. Waste management and potential pollution of the Baie have become among the most important elements of the critique of the PIC. Actions recommended: Significant efforts are being made to continue engagement with multiple stakeholders and to design a wastewater treatment system that offers layers of physical redundancies, including alternatives to discharging the final wastewater into the Trou du Nord River. Solid waste, water and sanitation master plans are being developed for towns in the region, and should be integrated rather than on a town-by-town and project by basis. Funding for the construction and operation of these systems, as well as development of human resources for their management and monitoring, should be prioritized for towns of the Baie de Caracol. The larger coastal ecosystem could become ecologically degraded and fragmented. New investments all along the coast are beginning to enclose the coastline with industrial and traffic heavy land uses: the PIC will fully utilize the two roads that currently lead to the larger towns on the coast – Caracol and Jacquezy; an airport at Madras, should it be built, would utilize the third entrance to the Caracol marine park; and, a port, should it be built in the Baie de Fort Liberté, would require significant 2 dredging, coral reef cuts and shoreline reconfiguration and introduce heavy traffic of large cargo ships to this other major ecological and cultural tourism destination. The Baie of Cap-Haïtien is already highly polluted and impacted through industrial and port uses, an airport and dense urban settlements. This would leave the Baie of Limonade as the least urbanized and impacted coastal marine system, although its proximity to Cap-Haïtien suggests increasing development pressures. Taken together, these developments will have a large cumulative impact on the coastal environment, endangering ecological functions, fisheries and the livelihood of coastal villagers. Actions recommended: Draft a regional plan of development that concentrates future development and public investments in and around urbanized areas, and avoid investments with significant negative impacts in the Parc de Trois Baies. Give preference to rehabilitating existing infrastructure such as ports and airports, and securing these from natural disasters before investing in new infrastructure elsewhere. 2. Surface and Ground Water Resources Water quality will be a major concern for the region’s surface and groundwater resources. Water reports done to date cite contradictory conclusions about the relative wealth and limitations of water resources in northern Haiti. Before the PIC begins to withdraw significant volumes of water, additional hydrological study may be needed to better understand the behavior of the aquifer in the Trou du Nord sub-watershed and how it relates to the broader Plaine du Nord aquifer. The proximity of the PIC to the coastline and its high rate of aquifer pumping pose a potential threat to saltwater intrusion. The impact of this would be long-term and initially most severely affect coastal communities that currently rely on well water. The risks of groundwater contamination is greatest when the depth of the water table is less than 3 meters, groundwater recharge is greater than 25 cm/year, the topographic gradient is less than 2%, the aquifers consist of irregular limestone or fractured basalt, and the hydraulic conductivity is greater than 80 m3/day/m2 – conditions that characterize much of the urban corridor. Urban latrines and “septic tanks” that sit in the water table are widespread and result in contamination. With DINEPA and other partners emphasizing water supply over sustainable sanitation, the region can expect that demand for water flushed sanitation and untreated septage, sludge and greywater will increase. The continued contamination of surface and groundwater supplies, particularly given recent cholera epidemics in the region, is a danger to public health. Women and children who do their washing in the river, the poor who only have access to surface water, and communities dependent on informal shallow and unmonitored wells are most at risk. An increase in stormwater pollution levels due to proposed oil/energy/gas facilities, industrial sites and increased impermeable surfaces will also degrade water quality. Free roaming livestock and increasing agricultural inputs under the Global Agriculture and Food Security (GAFSP), the Feed the Future (FTFCN), and Programme de Mitigation des Desastres Naturels (PMDN) initiatives, could potentially also contribute to nonpoint source pollution. Deteriorating water quality affects fish and riparian species living in rivers, and ultimately, estuaries and marine environments and their productive assets to local communities. Actions Recommended: The management strategies proposed in this report highlight the importance of long-term watershed management and monitoring programs, and of supporting integrated solid and liquid waste management – currently being studied separately through different master planning processes. Additional study of groundwater resources is needed, focusing in particular on saline intrusion. One of DINEPA’s roles is to create and manage a data observatory, which would be extremely useful to monitoring and managing the region’s water resources. Regional plan implementers should engage agricultural programs and the MTPTC to expand riparian habitat and roadway filtration buffers to minimize surface water pollution. The corridor is located in a high-risk zone that is vulnerable to multiple natural hazards, especially flooding. According to the Analysis of Multiple Natural Hazards in Haiti project (NATHAT) assessment of natural hazards in Haiti, the entire corridor has a medium-level earthquake risk. Coastal areas are at medium to high risk of flooding, tsunamis, storm surges and liquefaction, and mountainous areas face medium to high risks of landslides. Flooding will be the most frequent natural hazard experienced by the 3 corridor’s urban centers. Climate change could lead to more intense storms and storm surges, and will certainly raise the sea level with dramatic impacts on marine resources and human settlements. Increasing impermeability, insufficient drainage, poor grading, drain clogging will further exacerbate localized flooding. The tendency as cities expand will be for the poorest households to locate on the least desirable and most risk-prone areas, such as slopes, ravines and low-lying areas, as demonstrated in Cap-Haïtien. As the past rainy season has demonstrated, PIC, EKAM and University can be inundated even by minor storms. Cap-Haitien and Petite Anse, with their concentration of people in flood zones and multi-story buildings that are almost certainly not built to code, are at the highest risk. Natural disasters in these areas could lead to significant displacement, and a surge in urbanization in surrounding towns in the corridor. Actions Recommended: Conducting detailed topographical and drainage studies to establish flood maps for each of the urban centers in the area is a high priority. Future infrastructure, economic investments and housing should be located outside of the areas of highest flood risk. At a minimum, all public institutions should be built to withstand earthquakes and 100-year floods, and be designed to serve as centers of refuge and disaster relief in times of crisis. Major businesses, private investments receiving public subsidies, and donor-funded projects should meet new earthquake-proof building codes and flood avoidance standards. Additional study is needed to develop an integrated regional flood, drainage, irrigation, storage and aquaculture system that diverts, slows and absorbs floodwater and wastewater away from cities and sensitive habitats. 3. Highland Watersheds and Riparian Areas Mining activities and increased removal of construction materials such as sand, rocks and wood from rivers and estuaries will damage the region’s hydrology, exacerbate erosion and worsen water quality. With 127,000 to 177,000 new urban households expected in the corridor by 2030, the region will have a high demand for construction materials. Current practices of streambed excavation and mining for materials in ravines and beaches will likely expand and further damage in-stream habitat and watersheds’ hydrological function. Major exploration efforts underway in the urban corridor, particularly if they result in full-scale mining extraction, pose a major potential concern to topsoil removal, erosion and water quality. Actions Recommended: Local authorities, using a combination of enforcement and infrastructure investments that incentivize development in safer areas, should aim to restrict construction within 16 meters of waterways and in areas with slopes greater than 50%. Significant human and financial resources should be allocated at the national level to the Bureau of Mines and Energy under the Ministry of Transportation, Public Works and Communication to allow this entity to conduct local permitting, regulation and monitoring of extraction activities. Under the new national and regional agricultural programs (GAFSP, FTFCN and PMDN), efforts to stabilize river and stream banks – particularly those leading to the Baie de Caracol – should be prioritized. An estimated 65-130% increase in charcoal consumption by 2030 would exert significant additional pressure on existing wood resources. Given that households using charcoal consume five times as much wood as those using wood fuel, the migration of rural households to urban settings will elevate the amount of wood needed to energize the region. Wood products for construction will add to this demand. Although charcoal and wood production in the region is currently not resulting in deforestation, with the possible exception of the mangroves, increasing per capita resource demands and growing urban populations will challenge the region’s current levels of wood harvesting. In mountainous areas, excessive wood harvesting would worsen erosion and contribute to downstream flooding. Actions Recommended: It is important to consider planning for this corridor in a broader watershed context, both ecologically and economically. The coastal plain is closely linked to the ecology of the larger watershed, with forest cover, silvicultural practices, agricultural activities, charcoal and wood production, and human settlements having a significant impact on erosion and flooding, water quality, aquatic systems, and energy and food costs downstream. To counter the pressures identified above, it will be critical to establish a sustainable land management program, 4 in particularly for the Trou du Nord sub-watershed, and work with the regional agricultural programs to promote sustainable tree and woody plant harvesting regimes. Alternative energy systems such as more efficient cook stoves, LPG, kerosene, ethanol and jatropha oil should also be aggressively promoted. 4. Air Quality Air quality will deteriorate due to increased urban charcoal consumption, the generation of 40- 54,000 pounds of air pollutants per day from burning solid waste, and high levels of vehicular exhaust. Air quality concerns would be most severe around Cap-Haïtien, but also in Ouanaminthe, around the PIC, and possibly near EDH and private power plants. At full-occupancy, the air around the PIC could be affected by some 800 tap-tap trips per day at each of two entrances, as well as cargo vehicles and emissions from the heavy fuel oil power plant. Women, who work most with charcoal for cooking, laundries and bakeries, and children would be most vulnerable to exposure to particular matter and other pollutants. Should mining extraction proceed, ore processing could lead to the release of heavy metals to the air. Over time, the mix of point sources and fugitive emissions from traffic, cooking and so forth, will likely cause air pollution to exceed WHO air quality standards for urban areas. Actions Recommended: The spatial implications of these impacts suggest the need to design roads and transport networks to promote a high share of walking and biking to the various new employment centers; heavily invest in solid waste collection systems for recyclable and inorganic materials; and expand alternative cook stove programs, currently piloted in Port-au-Prince, throughout the northern corridor. USAID and IDB may need to conduct additional studies of air quality in the PIC area and “airshed” together with anticipated elevations of commuter traffic and domestic and other emissions sources to determine a regional approach to air quality management. If needed, the PIC may need to mitigate residual air quality impacts through standard pollution control methods, for instance by raising the stack height of process facilities discharging significant contributions of pollutants. Similarly, EDH will also need to consider cumulative impacts on air quality when designing their new facilities. 5. Soils and Agriculturally Valuable Areas Urbanization in the region could result in the loss of some 750 to 2,660 hectares of prime agricultural land over the next 20 years. In a baseline population scenario, the corridor would consume 750 to 1,200 hectares of additional land; in the high growth scenario, this would rise to 1,600 to 2,600 hectares of additional land. The tendency to place major public investments on publicly owned lands, much of which has high quality alluvial soil, has accelerated this trend. More land will be lost to urbanization around Cap-Haïtien and the Trou-du-Nord/Caracol/Limonade Triangle than around more arid zones in the corridor. This has major implications for local food security. Furthermore, despite some compensation, the process of displacing rural farmers and ranchers could worsen rural poverty. As urbanization expands, increasing conflicts will take place due to the lack of clarity over land ownership. Actions Recommended: Property mapping in towns and land surveys to clarify public and private ownership of land is a very high priority, and should be undertaken as soon as possible before land prices escalate even further. Proposed strategies to address the loss of agricultural land include concentrating future developments near existing urban centers in order to minimize land fragmentation, selecting sites with lower quality soils to the extent possible. Principles of smart growth should be applied in designing and building residential, commercial and industrial projects that create more vibrant urban environments and consume less land. Rural roads should be maintained, and projects should provide targeted investments in refrigeration and storage facilities in rural and urban centers to increase market access. USAID is undertaking a social assessment and resettlement plan for those displaced by the PIC. To date, there appears to have been little dialogue between rural and urban development agencies. As a number of these impacts make clear, there is a strong relationship between urbanization and impacts on rural livelihoods. There is an opportunity to more clearly link the 5 major agricultural programs, which are embarking on their next cycle of investments, with the impacts cited in this report. Dispersed investments are planting the seeds for extensive urbanization patterns that will raise infrastructure costs and reduce service quality. The PIC, EKAM, university, port, other housing projects have been sited far from existing sources of labor and infrastructure. The need to provide physical and social infrastructure at each of these sites, not least to reduce their environmental impact, will come at a cost to investing in existing communities that have long waited for public investments. Actions Recommended: Future assessments for siting investments should consider both environmental and fiscal impacts. Though challenging, efforts should be made to apply strategies such as land swaps, development right transfers, creative zoning and public private partnerships to make land available in the appropriate areas. The region’s total waste generation could rise by 3.8- to 5.4-fold by 2030, totaling 1 to 1.4 million tons per year. In addition, there could be some 90-95,000 m3 per year of combined domestic and industrial sludge. Currently, 50-58% of waste ends up in nature, 25% on vacant land in informal dumps, and the remainder is burned or landfilled. If these practices continue, drainage systems, riverways, mangroves, and marine habitats throughout the Caribbean will be significantly endangered. In particular, the towns closest to the PIC could see an increase of 64 tons of solid waste per day above the baseline condition – or a total of 156 tons of municipal waste per day. Actions Recommended: Solid waste management plans are ongoing for the region. These will likely propose efforts to compost organic waste, promote recycling, which is a growing business in the region, and build disposal facilities. The AIA’s town plans should designate sites for solid waste transfer and disposal, and identify current open dumps that should be cleared. Solid waste management should be integrated with sludge and septage management. Shared services and facilities between small towns will likely help reduce costs and management and staff requirements. 6. Culturally Valuable Areas New development pressures pose a threat and an opportunity for the region’s built cultural heritage. The location of the PIC and the port – if located at the Baie de Fort Liberté – would endanger the two most significant sites of natural (Baie de Caracol) and cultural (town and fort of Fort Liberté) heritage in the corridor. In addition, the tendency for development to spread along either side of the RN6 highway and the roads leading from the RN6 to the coast will visually impair the region’s landscapes. Within cities such as Fort Liberté, Limonade and Quartier Morin, development pressure could result in the demolition of neglected and deteriorating historic residential buildings. All of these forces would dampen the region’s tourism potential and the strongest economic rationale for heritage preservation. Actions Recommended: A multi-sectoral preservation strategy is proposed toaddress the visual, cultural, natural and built heritage of the region, including the implementation of the tourism master plan, applying existing measures of protection and promoting historic core rehabilitation in new town plans. A matrix of cumulative impacts on the environmental systems is shown in Table 33 of the report. It demonstrates that the interactions of the environmental impacts are most intense for surface water quality, air quality, valuable agricultural land, and the visual beauty of the region’s landscape. Coastal estuaries, mangroves, and marine life will also be acutely affected, and large populations and economic infrastructure are likely to be vulnerability to flooding. Growing populations and urban demands for resources, the PIC, and mining activities (if fully exploited), and a port at Fort Liberté would impose some of the most intense and wide-ranging impacts. With all the present and future impacts layered across space and time, the cumulative assessment paints a grim picture of the region’s environmental outlook. The challenges are particularly daunting in light of the limited human, financial and governance resources to address them. At the same time, the 6 assessment also highlights a number of opportunities where investments can have a positive impact on communities and natural ecosystems across different sectors. With a number of major investments still under consideration, it is timely to consider adjustments in investments decisions and management strategies. It is critical to bu